Wednesday, February 15, 2017

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - February 25, 2017

It's that time of week again for me to give you my thoughts on the new Billboard charts! In this weekly post, I cover three sections. First, I give my thoughts on the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100. Second, I give my thoughts on the songs that experienced significant gains below the top 10. Third, I give my initial thoughts on our new arrivals this week. I reserve the right to mix things up in the future and do different things here, but for now this is what I've decided to stick to. I've followed the Billboard charts for a long time now and this is a great way for me to express my thoughts to the world. I hope you enjoy!


Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:





1- "Shape of You" - Ed Sheeran (=) -- After much of January and February had constant turnover at the top of the charts, it looks like we have a song that's here to stay. And I'm happy about it. We don't have a whole lot of songs on the charts right now that are super deserving of being a No. 1 hit and until we have a good candidate, I'd be happy if Ed held everyone else off. This song isn't great, but it's a fun song and Ed Sheeran is a good musician that is deserving of this honor. Now next week on the charts should be interesting with the Grammy's looking to shake up the charts a bit with the winners and performers all selling very well. We also have Katy Perry looking to make a big splash. But being that Ed was also one of those performers, he is currently killing it on sales right now and should easily top the sales charts for next week. As far as Katy goes, I'm expecting her to debut just out of the top 5, but we'll see how things turn out. "Rise" last year debuted at No. 11.

2- "Bad and Boujee" - Migos featuring Lil Uzi Vert (=) -- Streaming is still insanely strong for "Bad and Boujee," meaning it will probably hang out in the top 10 for a while longer, but its streaming has finally started to drop and with everyone else surging because of the Grammy's, I wouldn't be surprised to see this song take a big hit next week. Or maybe that's just hopeful thinking on my part because I want it gone. It's certainly not going back to No. 1, though. At least I can be confident about that.

3- "I Don't Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)" - Zayn & Taylor Swift (=) -- This wasn't one of our Grammy's songs, but "Fifty Shades Darker" premiered this past weekend along with the "Fifty Shades Darker" album, which should be enough of a boost to send it to No. 2, where it might hang out for a while unless it can somehow top Ed in the near future. Currently, though, Ed has significant leads in all three categories and is only getting stronger. So it'll be an uphill battle for Zayn and Taylor.

4- "Million Reasons" - Lady Gaga (re-entry) -- Boom! Last week I told you to look out for Gaga on the charts and this is why. "Million Reasons" previously peaked as high as No. 52 and in the last few weeks has been fighting to stay on the charts. Two weeks ago in was in the 90's and last week it was gone. Thus due to Gaga's halftime performance at the Super Bowl, it soars up to No. 4 with an absolutely phenomenal week of sales, which ties the record for biggest re-entry in Billboard history. I may have a lukewarm opinion of Gaga's actual album, but I like this song and I loved that Super Bowl performance. This may only be here in the top 5 for one week, but I'm glad it made it and I wish Gaga the best of luck in the future. Also, "Bad Romance" re-entered to No. 50 this week. That's pretty cool!

5- "Bad Things" - Machine Gun Kelly & Camila Cabello (-1) -- "Bad Things" is in a bit of an awkward position on the charts right now. It's not doing bad, but it's peaked in all categories and is slowly declining. With everything else getting huge boosts by the Grammy's, this is essentially going to get punched in the face next week. This is probably its last week in the top 5.

6- "Bounce Back" - Big Sean (+9) -- This surprised me a bit. "Bounce Back" has been hanging out just below the top 10 for a while now, a spot where Big Sean normally gets stuck at. I thought it had a chance to sneak into the top 10, but I didn't expect it to surge up to No. 6 so suddenly. I guess I shouldn't have been too surprised, though. Big Sean's album just came out and he has quite a few new songs on the charts right now, so we're going to be talking a lot about Big Sean in just a bit. I'm not a fan of this song, but I will admit that it's super catchy and has grown on me a bit. So if we have to have a dumb rap song in the top 10, I suppose I'll take this. Although it will most likely fall out of the top 10 again next week following the album surge. So a one week appearance in the top 10 for Big Sean is acceptable.

7- "Closer" - The Chainsmokers featuring Halsey (-2) -- It looks like "Closer" is finally starting to fall and might not last long enough to tie LeAnn Rimes' 32 week record. But don't be surprised if it jumps back into the top 5 next week for one final week. The Chainsmokers didn't perform this song at the Grammy's, but they did win a Grammy and that is causing sales for "Closer" to increase for next week. And for those keeping track, "Closer" tied the 25-week record of longest in the top 5 and if it does jump into the top 5 next week, it'll have that record all to itself. The count in the top 10 for "Closer" is now 28 weeks, which means it's four weeks away from tying that. With focus now shifting to "Paris," I predict it ends up with 30 weeks in the top 10, which is exactly what "Uptown Funk" got.

8- "Scars to Your Beautiful" - Alessia Cara (+2) -- Alessia isn't super strong with this song right now, but as I mentioned last week, it managed to rise due to the other songs collapsing. "Starboy," "Fake Love" and "Black Beatles" all dropped out this week and "Don't Wanna Know" collapsed to No. 9. Hence is why it jumped from No. 10 to No. 8 even with "Million Reasons" and "Bounce Back" surging into the top 10. If those two songs fall out of the top 10 like I expect them to, Alessia might even sneak a bit higher.

9- "Don't Wanna Know" - Maroon 5 featuring Kendrick Lamar (-3) -- Thank heavens this is falling. Now let's get this out of the top 10 for good. No one likes this and no one wants this here. It's just here because the radio has a love affair with Maroon 5 and will overplay their songs no matter what the quality is. Sad thing is Maroon 5 has their newest song that they just released. This time featuring Future. Oh joy. I'll talk about that in a week or two when it debuts, but I hope that we can all collectively reject it. And it would be nice if people controlling the radio realize that none of us want to hear Maroon 5.

10- "Paris" - The Chainsmokers (+1) -- The numbers for "Paris" aren't even close to what "Closer" was getting at this point in it's run. I suppose I'm fine with it hanging around in the bottom half of the top 10 for a few weeks, because that's what I'm expecting. But I am hoping it can fade quickly and that The Chainsmokers can wake up and go back to writing good music again.

Rising on the Hot 100:




19- "Mercy" - Shawn Mendes (+2) -- Not a ton of super high risers between 11 and 20 this week. Just a handful of songs that are all stuck and hoping for a lucky break. Thus Shawn Mendes' "Mercy" is our top riser as it shows up in the top 20 this week. I'm not super ecstatic about that because I want Shawn Mendes to disappear from the music scene. But if I'm being objective, this is better than some of his previous disasters such as "Stitches" and "Treat You Better." I'd still prefer if this stayed away from the top 10, though. Let's not encourage Shawn anymore with the boring pop music that he keeps putting out.

21- "Body Like a Back Road" - Sam Hunt (+17) -- Why in the fetch did this jump up super high in it's second week following an already too high debut? I'm just happy right now that country music never has any luck getting much higher than this is right now, so this is thankfully as high as this goes.

31- "Down" - Marian Hill (+6) -- A slower jump this week for Marian Hill than the previous two weeks, which means this sadly might slow down and not go top 10. That would be fun if it did, though!

37- "That's What I Like" - Bruno Mars (+20) -- Eek. I don't like this song's super high trajectory. It's one of Bruno's worst singles. But I will admit that his actual performance at the Grammy's with this was good. I mean, regardless of what he's singing, Bruno has proved that he is one of the best performers of our day with excellent stage presence. Even when he's singing awful songs like this, he still sells it on the stage and because of that performance, I think this is going top 10 next week. It's projected to be in the top five in sales for next week, according to Kworb. Speaking of Bruno, I think his Prince tribute may have been the best performance at the Grammy's. But that has nothing to do with this song.

38- "Moves" - Big Sean (+36) -- Another major jump due to Big Sean's album. I can only hope this collapses next week, because while "Bounce Back" has grown on me ever so slightly, this song is beyond awful and one of the worst songs of the year so far.

41- "Issues" - Julia Michaels (+23) -- Keep it coming Julia! This song is deserving of at least top 20. If she can even sneak into the top 10 with her debut single as a lead singer, this is a positive thing. We could use more good pop singers like Julia Michaels transitioning over to the mainstream.

69- "Guys My Age" - Hey Violet (+18) -- On a different note, I can only hope this is a one week surge. I don't want this song to become a hit. Although since it is not yet top 50, I'm not complaining just yet. I'm fine with this song hanging around in the bottom half of the top 100.

72- "Call on Me" - Starley (+10) -- Another wait and see for me. I'd welcome this if it became a top 50 hit, but I won't be super offended if it never made it in. It's a fine song, but I keep forgetting that it exists as it doesn't stick with me super well.

84- "Any Ol' Barstool" - Jason Aldean (+11) -- I'm not surprised to see Jason Aldean rise in the country world. At least this is still in the 80's and not up in the 20's like Sam Hunt. But let's hope this doesn't jump much higher.

New Arrivals:




22- "No Favors" - Big Sean featuring Eminem -- Last week I covered five new Migos songs from their album. This week I get to cover six new Big Sean songs. I was less nervous about diving into this one because Big Sean is sometimes actually capable of writing decent rap music. "Moves" I hate, but "Bounce Back" is fine compared to other rap songs. When I saw that the top debut was an Eminem feature, I was immediately intrigued. Truth be told, I hate most rap, but I love Eminem. He's a lyrical genius and his rap usually carries a lot of weight and emotion to it. Big Sean starts this off and I feel a lot of genuine emotion in his verse and it's actually good rap in my opinion. Then Eminem comes in and holy cow! If he's going for shock value, then he definitely succeeds. The description on Apple Music calls it one of Eminem's most lethal guest spots. In the middle of the verse, Eminem says that "It may be disturbing, what I'm saying's cringeworthy." Yeah that's a good way to put it. There's a lot of disturbing statements made here. Yet I know Eminem usually has a point to what he's saying, so I'm going to take a rain check on this one because I need time to digest this song before I make a solid determination. Just know that my initial feelings here are shock. I'll let you know later what that shock turns into if this song becomes a hit.

43- "Believer" - Imagine Dragons -- This surprised me. For some reason I wasn't expecting more Imagine Dragons this fast. I do have a bit of a bias towards Imagine Dragons. They were big locally here in Provo long before they became a nationwide phenomenon. In fact, I went to an Imagine Dragons concert back in 2011 before they released their "Night Visions" album in 2012, so it was kinda cool watching them gain so much popularity because of that. And I absolutely love Night Visions, but it felt like it took a long time before they made their second album, "Smoke + Mirrors," which sadly was a bit disappointing to me. Not bad, but also not super memorable. That was in 2015. I suppose two years isn't super fast, but does the release of this single mean we're getting that third album this year? If so, I hope it's better than "Smoke + Mirrors." As far as this single, it reminds me a bit of "Sucker for Pain" from "Suicide Squad," of which Imagine Dragons was one of like 30 featured artists on that one song. I exaggerate, but not by much. Quite honestly, I'm not feeling it. It doesn't seem super original and it feels a lot more like the tracks from "Smoke + Mirrors" rather than "Night Visions." But maybe I just need more time for it to sink in. Certainly not bad. I enjoy it. But not as much as I want to.

68- "My Old Man" - Zac Brown Band -- Wow. I usually go into these country songs with a bit of a chip on my shoulder because most of them are boring and cliche, but this one really surprised me, but this is a really nice song by the Zac Brown Band. He's telling us that he always wanted to be like his old man. Like many of us, even if we appreciated our parents while we were younger, it's usually when we become adults ourselves that we really grow to appreciate what our parents did for us and this is exactly the message he's getting here, now as a parent himself, he hopes that his kid will one day grow up and want to be like him. It's a really pretty, beautiful country song, both in terms of the message and the music. I'm a fan!

70- "Sacrifices" - Big Sean featuring Migos -- I get a mixed vibe from this song. Big Sean here is rapping about how we all have to make sacrifices and the song ends with him saying that his great, great, great aunt was a slave and she had to make a lot of sacrifices, so he doesn't want to take those sacrifices in vain. Throughout the song he states that in order to get ahead, you need to make sacrifices, but at the end of each hook he says, "(Screw) it, though, that's how hungry my appetite is." Is he acknowledging that you need to make sacrifices while admitting he's throwing in the towel and not willing to make those sacrifices? I don't get it. So this song confuses me. The bigger issue here, though, is featuring Migos. They come in and do their same annoying thing. Their annoying noises and echoes thrown all over their verses that are a bunch of shorter phrases thrown together. At least their verses actually make sense narratively, but it's still annoying. I don't know how people can listen to them non stop without wanting to gouge their eardrums out.

74- "Halfway Off the Balcony" - Big Sean -- Just Big Sean for this song. No guest feature. And this song seems fairly empty. Nothing about it screams annoying or awful. Yet there's also nothing that really catches my attention, either. It seems like he's rapping about him feeling unfulfilled about what he's doing as he realizes that that when it comes to females, chemistry means way more than anatomy. In other words, you have to have a connection with a girl to make a relationship work instead of just going after someone because they are attractive. So that's all cool. It just seems like there's no resolution here, so I leave this not feeling grossed out or offended, but just uninterested.

76- "Jump Out the Window" - Big Sean -- OK, here we go. This is a song about Big Sean trying to get a girl out of an abusive relationship. Certainly nothing new. In fact, it reminds me of what Shawn Mendes was trying to do in "Treat You Better," except this one comes off as a lot less arrogant and more honest. Big Sean talks about the times when they were younger and playing Mario Kart that he realized she was a princess, but he never pursued a relationship. Now he sees her in a miserable relationship and he's experienced her crying in the phone to him about how awful it is, so he wants to help her and now he thinks he's ready. So yeah, nothing special or unique, but it's actually a decent rap song from Big Sean.

86- "Owe Me" - Big Sean -- Here's a narrative similar to the previous one, although a lot less interesting and more confusing. Big Sean finally gets the girl he wants, but then he doesn't want to be with her, then he does again? Then his friends tell him he shouldn't go back. Then he's pointing the blame game all over the place. And, well, I don't even know. This song doesn't make much sense to me.

87- "Beauty and the Beast" - Ariana Grande & John Legend -- I discussed this in depth on my facebook page already, so I'll be comparably brief. "Beauty and the Beast" is my favorite Disney movie and the original song by Angela Lansbury is a timeless classic. One of the best love songs ever. It would be unfair to compare this version to that. Instead we must see it as it is. The end credits song to the upcoming "Beauty and the Beast" remake, thus we compare it to the end credits version of the animated movie, which was sung by Celine Dion and Peabo Bryson. In that comparison, it holds up perfectly. I'm fairly certain that this is the same exact arrangement. As if the music people from the movie put that sheet music in front of Ariana Grande and John Legend in the recording studio and told them to sing it as is. So Ariana is doing her best Celine impression and when you listen to the two back to back, Ariana absolutely nails her Celine impression. Where the song falls slightly short is John Legend's side. He doesn't quite have the same vocal range as Peabo Bryson, so his parts don't have quite the impact. But outside that, this is a solid song and a good sign for the upcoming movie.

89- "I Don't" - Mariah Carey featuring YG -- I've had a lot of discussions recently about Ms. Carey with a few of my good friends that caused me to go back and listen to all of her singles so that I could develop a more informed opinion of her. I learned that I really love a lot of her early work in the 90's. When it got to the mid- to late-90's, she started being very mediocre, then most of her stuff from 2000 on was just not good for me. Coincidentally, she's really struggled recently to find mainstream success recently as her last top 10 hit was "Obsessed" back in 2009. She got to No. 15 in 2013 with "#Beautiful," but that wasn't really a success, rather just a strong debut. Coming from the queen who dominated the charts in the 90's and still holds the record for the song that has spent the most weeks at No. 1 (16 weeks for "One Sweet Day"), this is fairly surprising. In fact, her last few attempts to make a comeback didn't even see her get higher than No. 82. I don't know how well this song will do on the charts, but for me I'm not a fan. Sorry. It's beyond basic when it comes to the lyrics. Mariah Carey's vocals are good for part of it, but the song never really goes anywhere and we have a featured rapper in YG that not only ruins anything good Mariah had going in the chorus, but really screams desperation on Mariah's part. "Hey, maybe if I feature a rapper, I will become popular again." No, sorry. This doesn't do it for me.

93- "Now and Later" - Sage the Gemini -- I don't know if I really like the candy comparisons in this song. He says he can be her lifesaver and that she can treat him like a jawbreaker. Then he tells her that she has 31 flavors and that she can get him now and later. Sage the Gemini definitely had a huge sweet tooth when he wrote this song and it doesn't really land that well. But I'm not going to lie, this is not an explicit rap song. It's not disgusting or gross. It doesn't even have the red "E" on it on my Apple Music like most of them do. Thus it's a fairly harmless rap song and it does have a pretty good groove to it. I found myself dancing around in my seat a bit while I was listening to it. In a day where 90 percent of rap music turns me off, it's nice finding one that doesn't drive me up the wall. 

94- "In Case You Didn't Know" - Brett Young -- It's a pretty good week for country. In terms of these new debuts, anyways. The fact that I really enjoyed the Zac Brown Band song and the fact that I don't hate this one, means that we're two for two. This is a simple, basic country love song about a guy who finally gets around to confessing his love for this girl. It would make for a nice little wedding song going in the background of a reception.

95- "Look at Me!" - Xxxtentacion -- I almost went this whole week without completely hating on any rap or country songs. Even some of the lesser Big Sean songs I didn't completely destroy. But we couldn't go completely unscathed, could we? Apparently this song was initially released in 2015, but didn't hit mainstream until X, as they call him, got mad at Drake on Twitter for copying this song, or something like that. It's unfortunate that this crossed over to the mainstream because it is beyond awful. Not only does the production of the song make me feel like my speakers are broken, but the dude just goes on an angry, nonsensical tyrant throwing out all sorts of insults and seeing how many times he can drop the f-bomb in one song. I'm going to make an effort to never listen to this full song again because it hurt my ears so bad on every level. If you haven't heard this, good. Keep it that way.

97- "Light" - Big Sean featuring Jeremih -- And our final Big Sean song is the song that essentially opens up the album. After the minute-long intro, that is. The message here is a good one. Big Sean says he's been trying to find the light at the end of the tunnel only to realize that the light comes from within, so he's trying to use that knowledge to his benefit and make himself a better person. Big Sean said in an interview the following, "When you realize that your inner power is the key to everything on the outside -- when you've realize that you've got that light and you hold all the answers that you've been looking for in all these other places -- then that's the first step to really changing your whole world." So yeah, that's a pretty positive message. It's just that musically the song is a bit boring. I appreciate the lyrics, I just got bored of the song halfway through the song, if that makes sense.

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