Thursday, August 17, 2017

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - August 26, 2017

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! In this weekly post, I cover three sections. First, I give my thoughts on the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100. Second, I give my thoughts on the songs that experienced significant gains below the top 10. Third, I give my initial thoughts on our new arrivals this week. I reserve the right to switch things up in the future, but for now this is what I'm sticking with. I've followed the Billboard charts for a long time now and this is a great way for me to express my thoughts to the world. I hope you enjoy!


Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Despacito" - Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee featuring Justin Bieber (=) -- Another major milestone has been reached for "Despacito" as this crazy phenomenon of a song has matched the 14-week run of "Macarena" as the longest run at No. 1 for any Spanish-language song on U.S. Hot 100. In fact, that's the high mark for any non-English language on the U.S. charts as out of the nine songs that have made it to 14 weeks or more, "Despacito" and "Macarena" are the only ones not in English. And speaking of these nine songs that have hit 14 weeks, only one of them managed to make it past this mark, that of course being Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men's "One Sweet Day," which ruled for 16 weeks starting in December 1995. The other seven songs failed to get any further. Thus will history repeat itself for "Despacito" or will history be set with "Despacito" standing on its own in second place? Signs are pointing to the latter as "Despacito" scores 82,000 sales (down 3 percent), 49.4 million streams (down 1 percent) and 134.6 million radio audience (down 4 percent). The margin this week in chart point percentage for "Despacito" vs. "Wild Thoughts" is 1.46-to-1. Which Billboard reports is the same exact as last week. Two weeks ago it was 1.59-to-1. Three weeks ago it was 1.73-to-1. That's a margin that's simply not closing fast enough. Thus I honestly think that, unless we have a major debut drop this week or next, the record is going down.

2- "Wild Thoughts" - DJ Khaled featuring Rihanna & Bryson Tiller (=) -- The advantage that Rihanna has here over "Despacito" is on radio as "Wild Thoughts" rose up 6 percent to 135.1 million in radio audience, narrowly edging out "Despacito" by half a million in total audience. But that 6 percent rise is down a bit from last week's 9 percent rise, meaning "Wild Thoughts" could be close to peaking on radio, which is not a good sign if it wants to move up to No. 1 because sales and streaming are still not good enough. Billboard actually didn't report specific sales and streaming numbers for "Wild Thoughts" in their article this week, but they did report that both "Despacito" and "Wild Thoughts" are both down 2 percent in overall chart points, so do the math from last week and sales for "Wild Thoughts" are somewhere around 30,000 with streams somewhere around 33 million. In order for "Wild Thoughts" to go No. 1 in the next week or two, "Despacito" is going to need to suffer an epic collapse somewhere because these sales and streaming numbers for "Wild Thoughts" simply aren't good enough and I see no signs of that changing.

3- "Unforgettable" - French Montana featuring Swae Lee (=) -- I actually wouldn't mind it if this song went No. 1. But it certainly has no chance of doing so in the next month or so. Sales and streaming are about equivalent with "Wild Thoughts," but the radio is quite a bit behind. But if it manages to be consistent enough, it could happen.

4- "Believer" - Imagine Dragons (+1) -- And then there's the rest of the top 10. Full of songs that are either crumbling due to them well overstaying their welcome or songs that are rising by default. Imagine Dragons is one that's going up by default, but I don't think it has a serious chance of breaking into the top three. And while I certainly prefer this over Mr. Puth or Mr. Mendes, it makes me sad that this is becoming the Imagine Dragons song that is starting to become one of their biggest hits when they've had so many other songs that deserved such an honor but never got it.

5- "Attention" - Charlie Puth (+2) -- Seriously. Why did we let Mr. Puth into the top five? I know he's been here before as a part of "See You Again," but he was more of the frosting on the cake on that song with Wiz Khalifa carrying the meat and depth. In other words, Charlie Puth as an appetizer or side dish is just fine. But as a main course, he's just boring and bland. I don't get it.

6- "There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back" - Shawn Mendes (+2) -- And I honestly don't know which song would make me more upset if it stuck around in the top five. I'm grateful this song hasn't hit the region yet and I can only hope it gets stuck at this spot, but I'm made that Charlie Puth did so instead. No one on planet earth is going to remember either of these two songs in a year from now if they can even remember them at this point. I blame the radio for all of this because that's all these two songs have.

7- "That's What I Like" - Bruno Mars (-3) -- Oh thank heavens, a miracle has occurred. Bruno Mars' most boring and forgettable song yet has FINALLY exited the top five. It didn't belong there in the first place and after over 20 agonizing weeks, it's gone. Now let's hope a quick exit from the top 10 altogether is in the cards for the near future.

8- "Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)" - Cardi B (+6) -- I've been demanding more female presence in the top 10 for much of the year near since 80 percent of the artists in the top 10 in 2017 have been male. But this is not what I meant when I request more females. Cardi B is a Nicki Minaj wannabe and is quite honestly just as bad and annoying of a rapper. Yet sadly I think this is here to stay. It's had so much momentum. This could even be a future No. 1 hit... which scares me.

9- "Shape of You" - Ed Sheeran (=) -- Oh hey, speaking of prestigious records, I hadn't even been paying attention to how many weeks "Shape of You" has spent in the top 10. But it just clocked in its 31st week. The all-time record, which is currently now being shared by LeAnn Rimes' "How Do I Love" and The Chainsmokers' "Closer," is 32 weeks. If "Shape of You" manages just one more week, it'll enter a three-way tie. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

10- "I'm the One" - DJ Khaled featuring Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance the Rapper & Lil Wayne (-4) -- Oh thank heavens, another blessing from above this week! I was honestly shocked to see this plummeting four spots, but I'm certainly not complaining. This is also a song that is so boring and dull that it never belonged in the top 10, but got there by name recognition alone, not by quality of song. Smart move financially for DJ Khaled to organize this posse, but I wish America would've been smart enough to reject bad music. Apparently not. If this is indeed this song's final week, then, well, don't let the door hit you on the way out.


Rising on the Hot 100:





12- "Bank Account" - 21 Savage (+6) -- On second thought, our current top 10 can stay put. As much as I don't like "I'm the One" or "That's What I Like" and as sick as I am of how long "Shape of You" has stuck around, I'd still listen to those songs any day of the week when given the option of them or this pile of trash by 21 Savage. Like seriously, why are we letting this get so high?

23- "Mi Gente" - J Balvin & Willy William (+5) -- The eventual replacement of "Despacito" in the top 10? Although it has slowed down a bit compared to its first few weeks, but I'm really curious if a non-English song like this can enter the top 10 WITHOUT an English remix. That would be the real milestone for foreign-language songs.

24- "Praying" - Kesha (+8) -- I'm so glad to see this gaining traction on the charts! And I'm sure Kesha's album release will give it even more of a boost next week. This SO belongs in the top 10! It's certainly much better than anything in there right now.

40- "What Ifs" - Kane Brown featuring Lauren Alaina (+8) -- A lot of country songs had small gains this week. This is the one that increased enough to qualify for this list. And I'm fine with it. I'm not madly in love, but we've certainly had worse.

42- "No Promises" - Cheat Codes featuring Demi Lovato (+9) -- Here come the Cheat Codes! If you didn't like the Chainsmokers, don't worry. These guys will guarantee you will be equally as upset. Because to heck with inviting good EDM artists into the top 50, let's popularize all the average and lazy ones. Sounds like a solid idea, right?

46- "It's a Vibe" - 2 Chainz featuring Ty Dolla $ign, Trey Songz & Jhene Akio (+7) -- I'm getting a vibe that this song needs to STOP climbing the charts. It's seriously one of the worst songs of the year. Why have we now invited it to the top 50?

49- "Young Dumb & Broke" - Khalid (+15) -- I've been rather impressed with this song's continued jump of the charts. I didn't expect it in the top 50 this soon. I also don't expect this to break top 20. I'm predicting it will slow down now. At least I hope that's the case. I don't mind the song, but I might be a little upset if it gets too high.

62- "Back to You" - Louis Tomlinson featuring Bebe Rexha & Digital Farm Animals (+12) -- So happy to see that this got a huge boost this week! Let's keep it coming. I've noticed that this is gaining traction on the radio, so I hope that's a good positive sign.

75- "The Weekend" - SZA (+14) -- We're making SZA a star now. I'm not sure how I feel about this. I mean, it's better than this Cardi B woman that's now in the top 10. But I'd prefer if this sudden SZA craze was hit the breaks. 

77- "Honest" - The Chainsmokers (+11) -- Oh dear, please no. Sure, I can't panic just yet at a No. 77 placement, but an 11-spot jump after its arrival on the charts is a bad early sign. I was hoping that we would collectively pretend this song doesn't exist so that it can go away.


New Arrivals:





70- "The Race" - Tay-K -- We have eight new arrivals this week, so let's get started! And we begin with... who in the heck is Tay-K? And why are we inviting him to the party? Out of context, this is another Migos wannabe song with a message I don't understand and plenty of "skrrts" that make everyone drool all over themselves for some reason. Boring. Dull. Awful. I made it through a minute of this song before I was done. And heck, I was almost halfway finished. Oh but then we add context and this gets even better. Tay-K is a 17-year-old kid formerly a member of a trio called Daytona Boyz, all of whom are facing criminal charges, with Santana Sage having been convicted of murder. In a separate incident, Tay-K was a part of a home invasion recently that led to the death of 21-year-old Ethan Walker. Tay-K was placed on house arrest, but decided he was done with that, so he cut off his ankle monitor and fled from Texas to New Jersey, where he was caught again and arrested. He wrote this song during this little escapade and got it released the day he got arrested. Now he is currently sitting in jail awaiting criminal charges for murder, of which the death penalty is an option on the table. So you know, punk kid with a criminal history that possibly might include a murder. Could spend the rest of his life in prison. But we're giving him a chance in the spotlight before that. That's 2017 for you. Well, at least this means we're getting nothing else from him, right?

76- "Patty Cake" - Kodak Black -- Well, at least our next song isn't from a guy currently in prison while facing murder charges. But it is boring, ole Kodak Black, who keeps becoming a thing for some reason. Yes, I don't mind "Unforgettable," but that has more to do with Swae Lee's part, not Kodak Black's rap. And this song, well, he's just talking about drugs, being rich, stealing your girl. The usual for an uncreative dull rapper these days. In the chorus he uses the phrase clap someone like a patty cake. I don't really know what that means and I don't know if I want to.  

81- "OMG" - Camila Cabello featuring Quavo -- Next up is one of two releases from Camila Cabello, everyone's favorite Fifth Harmony girl. Now I didn't mind "Crying in the Club" from earlier this summer. Not great, but better than most of the garbage from Fifth Harmony. However, both songs from me had me nervous just because I noticed features from Quavo and Young Thug. Sounded like a desperation move from a girl that just witnessed her other single flop on the charts. And, well, I'll speak about "Havana" in a second, but "OMG" is about as dull as I expected. The only good thing that came out of this experience for me is that it put Usher's "OMG" in my head and that made me happy, so I went back and listened to that, too. The difference here is that Camila's "OMG" is like a dull, lifeless version of Usher's. She just spends the whole song telling how good this guy looks. Which is actually the same thing that Usher's song does. But the difference is that Usher's version is catchy and infectious with a really awesome groove to it. Camila's is boring, slow, not catchy and has no groove. I also find it interesting that Usher's version actually says "Oh my GOSH," with an "sh." Camila just uses the Lord's name in vain over and over. I don't like cursing in my music in general, but using that word over and over really puts me off. The one positive thing is that Quavo doesn't annoy me too much, even though he's pointless in this song.

82- "What About Us" - P!nk -- How about some good news for a change? P!nk has a new album coming out in October! It's her first since 2012 and this is the lead-off single. Now P!nk hasn't been completely gone. She had her "Alice Through the Looking Glass" song last year as well as her feature with Kenny Chesney. But I'm ready for P!nk comeback with a new album! I love how much fire and personality she brings to her music. She also has a fantastic voice and is a good lyricist. This song implements a lot of these classic elements, which makes me happy. Although she does hold back quite a bit in this song, which I really like. She's not in outright attack mode. This is closer to a P!nk ballad. But there's a lot of emotion bottled in and she does a great job of belting it out in classic P!nk fashion. This is a rather fantastic song that I hope does well. Female singers have had a lot of bad luck in 2017. I hope this changes things. In fact, I believe this hit No. 82 with just a day or two. I'm curious to see how high it can go with a full week of sales. I don't think it has enough power to dethrone "Despacito" at the top, but that would be totally fine with me. Realistically I'm thinking top 20 or top 30. But that's just a random guess. If it can hit top 10 next week, I would be beyond ecstatic. The radio does like P!nk and since they've been desperate for something to latch onto, I hope this is the song. The charts could definitely use a bit of P!nk right now.

84- "Perplexing Pegasus" - Rae Sremmurd -- So this is awkward. You know how I've been *praising* French Montana's "Unforgettable," mainly because of Swae Lee? Yeah. I totally forgot that Swae Lee was one half of Rae Sremmurd. It's him and his brother Slim Jxmmi. Suddenly everything makes sense. And it rather shocks me because I've never really enjoyed anything the brothers have done as Rae Sremmurd. "Black Beatles" was fine, I suppose. I just was mostly bored with it and mad that the dumb Mannequin Challenge sent it to No. 1. With all this in mind, I can definitely say that this brother duo definitely has a better half and that is of course Swae Lee. He doesn't have the beat and groove backing him up like he does in "Unforgettable," but he's definitely tolerable in "Perplexing Pegasus." The big problem is when his brother Slim Jxmmi comes in. He's really annoying and is in all out Migos mode with his sound effects and echoes. But most of the song is actually Swae Lee, which is good. The problem is similar to that of Black Beatles. The song is kinda boring and repetitive. Perhaps Swae Lee needs someone with him writing the music and lyrics to give that portion of the music actual life, because "Unforgettable" proves that he has potential.

94- "B.E.D." - Jacquees -- Isn't it just lovely that we have another awful rapper invited to this poisonous, festering club of horse crap this is hip-hop in 2017? The benefit to this guy is that he's actually rapping without mimicking Migos, like everyone else is. But this song is nearly four minutes long with about a minute's worth of substance that is dragged throughout the run time. And it's not even good substance. He's talking about a girl who obviously wants a real relationship, but Jacquees is just wanting a girl around for him to sleep with and nothing else. If I were this girl, I would get the heck away from this punk, because he's so cocky and caught up in his fame and riches that he feels he doesn't need to work it out. She's going to be all over him once he gets his fame. Because that's all girls want, right? Sex and money. No. Just, no. I don't know how this guy is in real life. Maybe he's a nice dude. But this song is rather repulsive, sexist and flat out uncreative. I hope it goes away.

95- "Chillin' Like a Villain" - Sofia Carson, Cameron Boyce, Booboo Stewart & Mitchell Hope -- Remember two weeks ago when we had two songs from "Descendants 2" sneak onto the Billboard charts in the midst of all that Meek Mill trash? Well, I thought they were fun songs from what I was guessing was a harmlessly fun Disney Channel musical. I was very impressed with China Anne McClain in "What's My Name" and I was fine with "It's Going Down," even though I thought the latter didn't work as well out of context. After that week's post, I had a friend comment who had seen "Descendants 2" and she told me that "Chillin' Like a Villain" was actually the better song from "Descendants 2." So I listened. And yeah. It is the better song. And now here it is! I'm not super in love with the conversation that Cameron, Mitchell and Sofia have in the second half of the song. Maybe that's better in context. And Sofia Carson is certainly not as good of a vocalist as China Anne McClain. But this song is super infectious. I kinda love it in a weird sort of way.  Of course this music isn't anywhere near some of the classic Disney songs from their theatrical animated musicals. But I can see Disney Channel fans loving this song, especially younger kids. And if a song from a Disney Channel musical catches on with the kids, I can totally respect and appreciate that.

99- "Havana" - Camila Cabello featuring Young Thug -- Sneaking in right at the end we have Camila's other song and right out of the gate I will say this is better than "OMG." With Camila's verses and choruses, the song has a decent groove that I could see as very radio friendly song that could be harmlessly playing in the background without making me want to change the station. The song is about Camila falling in love with a bad boy from Havana, which is also the place that Camila grew up in, so she has an ode to her hometown, which is cool. The problem here is what I was nervous about when I saw the song. The Young Thug feature. He's really awful with his verse. Worse than Quavo in "OMG," surprisingly. The more frustrating thing about this is that Camila actually worked with Pharrell on this song. He participated in the writing process and is there for all the echoes in the song. So why didn't she give him the verse instead of Young Thug? He was the only one in Calvin Harris' "Feels" that was having any fun. I think he could've added a lot of passion and personality to balance out Camila. But no. That's not what happened. Ultimately this is a fairly forgettable song. As I said, this could be playing in the background and I wouldn't mind. And I do like the trumpet in there. But this could've been a lot better.

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