Tuesday, July 3, 2018

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - July 7, 2018

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! In this weekly post, I cover three sections. First, I give my thoughts on the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100. Second, I give my thoughts on the songs that experienced significant gains below the top 10. Third, I give my initial thoughts on our new arrivals this week. I reserve the right to switch things up in the future, but for now this is what I'm sticking with. I've followed the Billboard charts for a long time now and this is a great way for me to express my thoughts to the world. I hope you enjoy!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "I Like It" - Cardi B, Bad Bunny & J Balvin (+1) -- No surprise here with Cardi B rising to No. 1. She's actually not No. 1 in any of the three categories, but is consistently strong in all three of them, being No. 2 in sales, No. 3 in streaming and No. 7 in radio. Personally I have mixed feelings on this song. It's kinda fun seeing Pete Rodriguez's classic 1967 song "I Like It Like That" hit No. 1, but this specific iteration sees this trio of artists taking turns spitting in that song's face as their additions to the song are cringe-worthy, especially Cardi B. In terms of history, Cardi B is now the only female rapper to have two No. 1 hits, which is a statistic that surprised me. I thought there were more female rappers to top the charts and I was certain that at least one of them had a second No. 1 hit. But nope. Prior to this week, Lauryn Hill, Lil' Kim, Shawna and Iggy Azalea were the only other female rappers in addition to Cardi that were tied at one No. 1 hit a piece. And yes, it's very true that Nicki Minaj has yet to hit No. 1, which I find really amusing. Now every time you hear Nicki rapping that she's the best and on top of the world, well, she's lying through her teeth. Cardi is ahead of her. And Cardi did this with her debut album. The last time any female singer had two No. 1 hits on her debut album was Lady Gaga in 2009. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis last achieved this in 2013 among all artists.

Cardi should feel lucky that she got to No. 1 this week because it very well could be her only week at No. 1 with this song. Drake recently dropped his new 25-track album "Scorpion," which is set to shatter all sorts of records next week as it's already set a bunch of streaming records in the few days it's been out. Drake could have upwards of eight songs in the top 10 next week, with the potential of five or six top 10 debuts. "Nonstop" by Drake should be the song that'll debut at No. 1 next week.

2- "SAD!" - XXXTENTACION (-1) -- X quite nearly spoiled Cardi's chances of getting to No. 1 as all of his songs held rather well on the charts in the second week following his murder in June. I don't expect them to last too long on the charts, but it's very possible that they hold onto enough streaming to slowly disappear instead of completely dropping off like most songs do when they are boosted following the death of an popular musician. Specifically concerning "SAD!," it debuted it's music video last week, which helped it remain mostly steady in streaming this week. But given how much Drake is dominating streaming right now, this song, along with most songs from various hip-hop artists, are probably set to take a huge hit next week.

3- "Lucid Dreams" - Juice WRLD (+1) -- Juice WRLD is close to getting his own No. 1 hit as he rises up to No. 3 this week and with "Lucid Dreams," which is No. 2 on streaming, just barely behind "SAD!" by X. The problem is "Lucid Dreams" is only No. 19 on sales and still hasn't seen the light of day on the radio charts. With Drake dominating streaming at the moment, it might be hard for Juice WRLD to fully recover in two weeks following Drake's debut week as this needs to start getting something on radio or else the floor is going to completely fall out for it here soon.

4- "Girls Like You" - Maroon 5 featuring Cardi B (+1) -- I don't know why this is still the No. 1 song on the sales charts right now. It's remained way to consistent there for my personal comfort. Not to mention it's still soaring high on radio because of the radio's continued love affair with Maroon 5. Thus this song unfortunately should survive the Drake onslaught, even though I would love for it to get killed off.

5- "Psycho" - Post Malone featuring Ty Dolla $ign (+1) -- I was really excited last week when "Psycho" fell out of the top five for the first time since its debut on the charts several months ago. But just like that it's back in the top five. That because "Nice for What" collapsed down to No. 6 this week. But this is only temporary since "Nice for What" is going right back up next week, along with every other Drake song. In fact, I'm almost certain that Post Malone will get completely bullied out of the top 10 next week. I'm hoping it will be weak enough to not recover in two weeks.

6- "Nice for What" - Drake (-3) -- Drake falling out of the top five with "Nice for What" speaks to the song's long term prospects. It's had a really good chart run so far and it'll be looking to wind down its run. However, as I've said several times now, Drake's album dropped and that'll send "Nice for What" straight back up. Possibly as high as No. 2 next week. And it could celebrate even more weeks in the top five depending on how well Drake holds in two weeks after his big week next week.

7- "Boo'd Up" - Ella Mai (=) -- Ella Mai has reached the top 10 on the sales chart and is still doing really well on sales. But I've said for a while now that the radio just isn't there. In fact, it down in radio this week, which is a bad sign.

8- "No Tears Left to Cry" - Ariana Grande (+1) -- I'm hoping for an Ariana resurgence in two weeks because the radio for this song has really started to pick. which is a great sign. But thanks to Drake, this song will take next week off when it comes to the top 10.

9- "God's Plan" - Drake (-1) -- "God's Plan" looks like it has even less life in it than "Nice for What" as I would've guessed that this would be the song's last or second to last week in the top 10 had it not been for Drake's album, which will boost it up next week. After that, I'm not sure how much longer this will have. But it's certainly had a good run.

10- "Meant to Be" - Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line (+1) -- It's a slight surprise seeing this song in the top 10 for one more week. Even though "The Middle" is still No. 1 on the radio charts, it's sales and streaming no longer exist, which led Bebe and FGL to celebrate once more. I don't think this would even be here next week even without Drake's album. But it's definitely guaranteed to get murdered next week.


Rising on the Hot 100:





13- "Moonlight" - XXXTENTACION (+3) -- Most of X's songs fell a bit this week, which was expected. The big surprise is that they didn't fall more. However, a bigger surprise is that this specific song actually rose on the charts and I'm not even sure why.

14- "Better Now" - Post Malone (+9) -- I don't know if you could tell by now, but I'm really done with Post Malone. Sure, this song is better than "Psycho" and "rockstar," but that's not a very high bar to reach. I hope this song's momentum sputters out.

15- "Plug Walk" - Rich the Kid (+17) -- As for why people are still streaming this song to death, I have no idea. This is more worthless and stupid than most rap songs today.

16- "Mine"- Bazzi (+4) -- Bazzi refuses to go away with "Mine" as it continues to camp around in the teens, but it looks like its chance to hit top 10 has long since passed

17- "Perfect" - Ed Sheeran (+4) -- "Perfect" has had a surprising amount of legs on the charts. I'm impressed. But it's not going to get a second wind. It just rose up because most of X's songs fell.

20- "Delicate" - Taylor Swift (+7) -- I'm really hoping Taylor Swift can continue her upward momentum on the charts. If this sputters out in the teens or even here at No. 20, I'll be disappointed. "Delicate" is getting great radio, so I think this will at least remain consistent here in the mid-region of the charts.

21- "Tequila" - Dan + Shay (+13) -- This I don't understand. "Tequila" is not a bad country song, but it's extremely average, so why it's now almost at the top of the country charts is beyond me.

30- "Taste" - Tyga featuring Offset (+8) -- I would love it if Drake is able to kill this song's momentum. I think a lot of hip-hop songs will especially suffer next week and I can only hope that this is one of them.

41- "I Like Me Better" - Lauv (+6) -- Almost top 40 for Lauv. Most of the really good songs this year have failed to do much on the charts, so I'm hoping this song can continue to go upwards because we could really use some actual quality. If you're new to this song, make sure you check out the Ryan Riback remix. The original is good, but that remix adds even more life to it.

44- "Get Along" - Kenny Chesney (+6) -- This song almost does it for me. A decent effort from Kenny Chesney. But ultimately not quite good enough for me to be excited that this is now a top 50 hit.

45- "Simple" - Florida Georgia Line (+9) -- This, on the other hand, is the country song that I'm happy for. Of course FGL goes with a more folkly, pop flavor with this. The title explains the song rather well. It's simple. But it works.

48- "Mercy" - Brett Young (+12) -- I wish I was happier for Brett Young as he gets another top 50 hit. Country radio has now completely fallen in love with this guy and usually I'm cool with that, but this is just not that good of an effort from him.

49- "One Number Away" - Luke Combs (+8) -- A whole handful of country songs getting top 50 this week and only FGL's "Simple" is going to get praise for me. This Luke Combs song isn't offensive, but it is horribly cliche and boring.

57- "Dura" - Daddy Yankee (+13) -- I've been wondering what "Dura" is going to do on the charts. I've been expecting Daddy Yankee to add an English-speaking pop star to the song in a remix because that's how he got "Despacito" so popular, but all he did was a remix with Bad Bunny, Becky G and Natti Natasha back in April. So that's a curious move. But hey, if this original can do well on its own, I'm totally fine with that. Although I think the ceiling is fairly low.

70- "Hope" - XXXTENTACION (+10) -- This is the other song from X to rise this week. And since it was a new entry last week as opposed to a re-entry, I'm not totally surprised. I don't think this song will stick around much, but we'll see.

73- "Drowns the Whiskey" - Jason Aldean featuring Miranda Lambert (+12) -- A boring country drinking song where Jason Aldean brings Miranda Lambert on just for backing vocals. What a waste. But hey, what did you expect from Jason Aldean?

75- "I was Jack (You were Diane)" - Jake Owen (+19) -- If we want to talk about a country song with some actual intelligence behind it, this is the country song to turn to. I love the original version of this song and I think Jake Owen did a great job of putting his own spin on it. I'd be totally fine if this picked up some steam on country radio.

79- "I Know You" - Lil Skies featuring Yung Pinch (+13) -- Can we just forget that these two punks ever made music? That would really be nice as neither of them has any ounce of talent.

81- "Medicine" - Queen Naija (+19) -- In case you forgot Queen Naija existed, she's back. "Medicine" debuted at the same time as "Boo'd Up" did. While "Boo'd Up" shot straight to the top 10 of the Hot 100 rather quickly, Queen Naija fell off the charts until last week. If she can somehow manage to gain traction, I think that would be really cool because I enjoy this song more than I do "Boo'd Up."


New Arrivals:





58- "Sober" - Demi Lovato -- I listened to this song shortly after the lyric video dropped on June 21 and I was immediately touched by it, so I'm glad to see it on the charts this week. The big story behind this song is that early this year on Twitter, Demi tweeted out that she is now celebrating being six years sober. Three months later she releases this song, which is her apologizing that she's not sober anymore, implying that she relapsed recently. There's not justifications or excuses in the lyrics. She apologizes to her mom and dad. She apologizes to a former lover. She apologizes to her fan base and anyone else that's been on this journey before. She talks about her feelings of being lonely and how she wants to be a role model for everyone, but confesses that she is still human, which is something we often forget with celebrities. They're humans just like us. She ends the song by saying she promises that she'll get help and then says sorry to herself. This is such a raw, emotional song that we don't see too much of in the mainstream. Everyone else is releasing all these generic songs with generic lyrics. And Demi releases a song where she pours out her whole soul. I love that!

65- "Legends" - Juice WRLD -- Juice WRLD recently released his debut album "Goodbye & Good Riddance," which includes his two big hits "Lucid Dreams" and "All Girls Are the Same," the former of which I enjoy, but the latter I don't. I naturally assumed "Legends" was a third release from that album since the album is doing very well on streaming, but it's not. And at first I was confused, but then I learned that this song is a tribute to XXXTENTACION and Lil Peep that Juice WRLD wrote follow the news of X's death, so that I appreciate. The message he has to say with that is one of uncertainty and confusion, which also feels very honest. He talks about being shocked out the unexpected death of X as well as being sad about Lil Peep overdosing and suddenly he doesn't know if he wants this newly gained fame. He admits that he doesn't have any specific answers to anything. He's just left in a state of shock and confusion at this point. And that's it. I really appreciated the honest there in the lyrics because I'm sure there's a lot of rappers who feel the same way, but Juice WRLD was the one who expressed it in a song. Musically it's not as catchy and upbeat as "Lucid Dreams," but I don't think it needed to be for what he was going for here.

88- "Coming Home" - Keith Urban featuring Julia Michaels -- Here's a simple song from Keith Urban about how there's nothing in the world like coming home. Compared to what other country singers are singing about right now, this song feels like a step in the right direction as Keith gives a real sentiment and has a catchy enough groove with the music behind the lyrics. But this song left me wanting more. It's a little too simple. He tells us that there's nothing in the world like coming home, but essentially just leaves it at that without going into much detail. And he brought on Julia Michaels and the two of them have great chemistry on the final chorus and the outro, but that's all she's here for. She gets a bridge on her own right before that chorus, but it's not enough. Had Keith dove deeper into the song and included Julia Michaels more, then I think this could've worked. As is, it's a nice start, but it feels like an unfinished first draft.

92- "Life Changes" - Thomas Rhett -- On other country news, we have Thomas Rhett talking about the recent changes he's had in his life. And I find it funny because he starts by talking about the bad songs he wrote in college and how they're now on the shelves at Walmart. I don't know if he meant to admit that all his current music is bad and he doesn't know why everyone likes it, but that might be the truest thing he's said in a song. All this guy does it write dumb, boring country-pop songs and for some reason he has the whole world in love with him. It's kinda frustrating. But actually I surprisingly found that this song isn't that bad. He talks about getting married in the second verse and having kids in the third verse, after that first verse is about him becoming a famous singer. The chorus talk about how it's funny how life changes sometimes. You have all these plans, but then life takes you in a very different direction than what you're expecting. Granted, I don't feel this is anything special or life-changing coming from Mr. Rhett. It's more like decent album filler. But hey, I'll take this over most other stuff he's done, so we're making progress here.

95- "The Light is Coming" - Ariana Grande featuring Nicki Minaj -- I mentioned last week that I really like Ariana as a pop singer, but I also get frustrated with her because after releasing a genuinely good pop song, she'll then turn around and release something trashy, like a Nicki Minaj collaboration, which she does way too much of. This here is our second Ariana and Nicki collaboration is as many weeks. Luckily this week sees Nicki as the featured artist and she only has one verse. At the very beginning. And it's so dull and typical Nicki that by the middle of the song, I forgot the verse had happened. That's also because this is such a strange song with so many experimental things that Ariana does, like a repeated like from a 2009 confrontation between a member of the public and a Senator from Pennsylvania wherein the person says, "You wouldn't let anybody speak and instead." That line is literally repeated throughout the song in the background as Ariana was doing all sorts of weird things with her voice and with the construction of the verses. All of it was so distracting that I couldn't pay attention to what she was saying in the song. Even reading the lyrics makes me unsure. Something about the light is coming to give back everything the darkness stole, but I'm not sure what context that speaks of. Ariana has an album coming out this year called "Sweetener" and this is the second released song from it after "No Tears Left to Cry." Let's hope the album as a whole is more like the latter song and not like this. But knowing Ariana's albums, it'll probably be a mix of both.

97- "Solo" - Clean Bandit featuring Demi Lovato -- We start with Demi and we end with Demi this week. Except this song isn't quite as new as "Sober" as it's been around since, well, the movie "Solo" was released in late May. Pure coincidence there, though. This song is No. 4 on Billboard's Hot Dance/Electronic Songs and is in its sixth week on that chart. Clean Bandit usually does quite well on those EDM charts, but it's always nice to see them crossover to the Hot 100. Something that DIDN'T happen with "Symphony" featuring Zara Larsson last year. I'm still mad about that. And as is always the case with Clean Bandit, the rest of the world seems to get them as this has been No. 1 in a lot of different countries, but is just now hitting the Hot 100 here in the U.S. If it seems like Clean Bandit and Demi would go good together, it's because they do. No, this song isn't quite on the level of a "Rather Be" or "Symphony" for Clean Bandit, but they provide a fun groove to dance to with this song and Demi is on point with her vocals, even though the song isn't meant to be a strong, power ballad, meaning Demi doesn't get to her usual upper register. The lyrics might be the weakest element of the song as it's a typical "sad about being single" song, but it works well enough. Now if we could somehow get Clean Bandit to be as popular here as they are internationally, that would make our Billboard charts a much better place. So make it happen, America!

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