Thursday, May 24, 2018

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - May 26, 2018

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! In this weekly post, I cover three sections. First, I give my thoughts on the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100. Second, I give my thoughts on the songs that experienced significant gains below the top 10. Third, I give my initial thoughts on our new arrivals this week. I reserve the right to switch things up in the future, but for now this is what I'm sticking with. I've followed the Billboard charts for a long time now and this is a great way for me to express my thoughts to the world. I hope you enjoy!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "This is America" - Childish Gambino (=) -- After debuting at No. 1 last week, Childish Gambino repeats at No. 1 this, holding off both of Drake's songs right below it, thanks to streaming numbers that increased from 65.3 million U.S. streams last week to 69.6 million this week. One major reason for the increased number of streams this week is that this was the song's first full week of streaming. The other reason is that I think this is genuinely caught fire in the streaming world. As long as the streaming numbers remain high, the song will stay at the top of the charts. But the other two categories provide a bit of concern. The song still leads the sales charts this week, but that's down to 50,000 sales after 78,000 last week and the projections for next week have it crashing even more. Radio is rising, but it's still only at 16.7 million in audience. The song won't be able to hold on forever if it doesn't get better radio and if the sales continue to crash. But for now it's here and it looks like it has at least a couple of more weeks at top as long as those streaming numbers are sky high.

Also of note, with "This is America" repeating at No. 1 on the Hot 100 and "Solo: A Star Wars Story" set to debut at No. 1 at the box office, that means Donald Glover will reign supreme on both charts as Childish Gambino is Glover's musical stage name and he will be playing Lando in the "Solo" movie. I'm not sure how often that feat has been accomplished, but I don't imagine it's something that happens too often as it's unique to find a person who successfully lives the acting and singing life, let alone obtaining No. 1 hits in both regions. Just goes to show how special of a star Donald Glover is.

2- "Nice for What" - Drake (=) -- Waiting in the wings in case "This is America" isn't able to maintain its momentum will be both Drake songs, but specifically "Nice for What." Streaming may be continuing to decline, but it's still at a strong 42 million, and the thing that Drake has that Gambino doesn't is radio as "Nice for What" has 77.1 million in radio audience this week, good enough for No. 6 on the radio charts while "This is America" hasn't yet debuted with the previously mentioned number of 16.7 million. So it's conceivable that this could return to the top, unless something else breaks out when "This is America" starts to decline on streaming.

3- "God's Plan" - Drake (=) -- With Drake's other song, the numbers are continuing to fall across the board, but not enough for it to lose any footing in the Hot 100 quite yet as it's now spent 17 weeks in the top three, meaning this would've been the record-breaking week for it had the stars aligned for Drake, but it just wasn't meant to be with opposition from himself, Post Malone and Childish Gambino. But all is well. This is still the song of the year and will probably remain that way.

4- "Psycho" - Post Malone featuring Ty Dolla $ign (=) -- Rounding out our top four is Post Malone still not budging here at No. 4, thanks to confusingly strong radio as he rises to the No. 8 spot with 75.4 million in audience, which is up 12 percent from last week. With Post Malone maintaining this spot, it means that this is the first week since 2003 where the top four songs have been all rap for back-to-back weeks after last week was the first since 2009 that the top four were all rap songs. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing as I don't like the idea of rap completely taking over the Hot 100. It doesn't bode well for the future of the charts if this trend continues. However, in this instance I don't mind it because I enjoy the top three songs. It's just this one that's the odd one out for me. I'm still confused as to why Post Malone is a thing.

5- "Meant to Be" - Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line (=) -- After the top four were all rap songs, the top five is rounded out by a country song. Well, kinda. I was just going to say that pop has been held out altogether, but "Meant to Be" is more of a country pop infusion. If I were to pick a genre, I would lean country for the fact that it's now ruled the Hot Country Charts for a 25th straight week, which is second only to Sam Hunt's "Body Like a Back Road." Not that I put a ton of investment into country records, but that's a record that I would love to see topped. Nine more weeks to go for that as the latter ruled for 34 weeks last year and I still have no idea why. 

6- "The Middle" - Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey (=) -- I imagine "The Middle" is close to swapping spots with "Meant to Be" for that final spot in the top five as it rules on radio for a second straight week, remaining mostly the same as last week with 118.2 million in audience. But since it couldn't jump ahead this week, the result is that our entire top six remained the same from last week and I'm wondering when something is going to come around to shake things up because songs No. 2 through No. 5 have all been there for quite some time. It's time for a change! 

7- "No Tears Left to Cry" - Ariana Grande (+3) -- Ariana debuted high at No. 3, but then spent two weeks at the No. 10 spot, which had me really nervous that the song was going to lose traction and slip out altogether. Thus I was quite relieved this week when I saw it rising three spots up to No. 7. That means the song might actually stick around in the top 10, which is a great thing in my books. Ariana also performed this song at the BBMAs on Sunday, which means it could be getting a decent boost next week.

8- "Look Alive" - BlocBoy JB featuring Drake (-1) -- It's nice to see this song fall one spot, but it needs to be falling faster as it's really annoying how much traction this song has had as it never deserved to be here in the first place. And it certainly has nothing to do with BlocBoy JB, but only because Drake got featured on the song.

9- "Never Be the Same" - Camila Cabello (-1) -- I'm becoming increasingly nervous that this song isn't going to be able to maintain much more momentum in the top 10. Perhaps the BBMAs would've been a good time to boost it up a bit more, but instead of performing this song, Camila performed a mashup of "Havana" and "Sangria Wine," the latter being her duet with Pharrell Williams that has not yet debuted. But perhaps it will debut next week after this performance.

10- "Perfect" - Ed Sheeran (-1) -- This song has been in the top 10 for 27 weeks now. I mention that because I'm guessing this will be the final week since there's some real competition right now just below the top 10 for the first time in a while. After this many weeks, I've still maintained my enjoyment of the song, so that's a good compliment. At the same time, though, Ed has had a great run and I will appreciate more variety in the top 10. We don't get enough of that with how the Hot 100's formula is currently set up. 

Rising on the Hot 100:




11- "Boo'd Up" - Ella Mai (+6) -- It's been very impressive watching this song shoot up the charts over the last several weeks. With how much momentum it's had, I would be shocked if it didn't crack the top 10 next week. In fact, a part of me was wondering if it would get there this week. And it almost did.

12- "Walk It Talk It" - Migos featuring Drake (+2) -- Migos and Drake collaborating just sounds like a home run hit in terms of sales and streaming when it comes to today's hip-hop dominated charts, but I've been glad that so far this song has only managed one week in the top 10. It's now coming real close to sneaking back in for another run, but I would love it if it stalled out again and started falling back down. 

15- "Heaven" - Kane Brown (+5) -- I'm genuinely curious about this song. I never dreamed that Kane Brown would be able to crack the top 15 and threaten to even go top 10. Even the best country songs usually peak around the 20's or 30's, with the occasional one sneaking into the teens. And that's not counting songs like "Meant to Be" that are country pop instead of simply country. I'm not so sure how I feel about this specific song going top 10, but there's worse things that have happened in the country world. Like that atrocity that was "Body Like a Back Road."  

16- "Friends" - Marshmello & Anne-Marie (+5) -- This is the highest career peak for Marshmello and I hope he continues to set new marks in the coming weeks. It's been a long journey for this song as it's slowly climbed up the charts, but I would love it if it could sneak into the top 10 as it would be a welcome presence. 

18- "Pray for Me" - The Weeknd & Kendrick Lamar (+4) -- Leftovers from the "Black Panther" DVD release? Probably. But in a perfect world this would use that momentum to catch a second wind on the charts and go back to the top 10 that way we can continue to have good rap songs in the top 10 if that's going to continue being a thing. 

20- "In My Blood" - Shawn Mendes (+7) -- Shawn Mendes is once again on the verge of hitting the top 10 as he gets top 20 this week and also performed at the BBMAs on Sunday that should be enough to at least push him close to a top 10 entry. And do you know what? I've been a lot angrier in the past at a Shawn Mendes song doing well. This song isn't particularly great and the other two songs he's done this year, "Lost in Japan" and last week's "Youth," are a bit better. But this is decent entry.

25- "Wait" - Maroon 5 (+5) -- I don't believe that Maroon 5 has quite enough momentum to push this song much higher on the charts. It's already been a lengthy journey for this song that hasn't resulted in Maroon 5's success of the previous years, so I don't know how much this has left in the tank before it starts falling back down.

27- "SAD!" - XXXTENTACION (+7) -- I'm really upset that we're continuing to give this song a second life after it spent two weeks in the top 10 earlier this year. Let's hope that the momentum sputters and dies before it gets much higher.

35- "One Number Away" - Luke Combs (+9) -- This is more along the lines of where a good-performing country song ends up as Kane Brown's "Heaven" is proving to be more of an anomaly. But can Luke Combs get higher, too?  

36- "Delicate" - Taylor Swift (+10) -- Another top 40 hit for Taylor Swift. And after she went through so much drama with "reputation" and it looked like she was going to sputter out, it's great seeing her find a song that appears to be gaining real traction as opposed to traction based solely on hype. She deserves the success.

39- "One Kiss" - Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa (+10) -- I hold onto hope that this can be a good summer hit. Maybe by late June or July this will be soaring on the charts after being blasted on everyone's radios.

40- "Japan" - Famous Dex (+8) -- This guy is making me nervous. I think this song has been slightly unstable, and thus I was hoping for it to sputter out because it has no value, but now it seems to have regained its traction and I'm not happy about it.

44- "Stir Fry" - Migos (+6) -- Is this rising out of default with Post Malone's songs continuing to die out? Possibly. This is the only Migos song that I have been able to tolerate and somewhat enjoy, but it had a really good chart life, so this won't be continuing to rise, I don't think.

45- "KOD" - J. Cole (+7) -- The rest of J. Cole's album has almost all died out, but he's probably happy to see something recover and start rising up. For me, though, "KOD" is NOT the track that I want to see do well from his new album. 

47- "Love Lies" - Khalid & Normani (+7) -- How about this for a sleeper hit? I feel that Normani has potential for a good solo career if that's the direction she decides to go. I mean, Fifth Harmony is practically dead as a group and Camila has proven that perhaps solo careers for the girls can lead to even greater success. Using this song as a vehicle for that success can definitely work out for Normani. And the two of them performed this at the BBMAs, so this is another candidate to get a good boost next week.

53- "Done for Me" - Charlie Puth featuring Kehlani (+21) -- I've been really nice to Shawn Mendes recently as he appears to be coming around with his musical quality. I'm not ready to be nice to Charlie Puth, yet, because this song is another dud for me. But that probably doesn't mean anything because pop radio has a mad crush on this man, so this is another song of his that they're probably going to overplay to death which will help it have a great chart life.

61- "I Like Me Better" - Lauv (+11) -- Is it weird that I totally forgot about this song? It debuted back in February and I enjoyed it, but then it kinda disappeared. But I gave it a re-listen and was instantly reminded why I found this to be a fun song. Now if we could push this into the mainstream, it could add more life to the Hot 100.  

66- "OTW" - Khalid, Ty Dolla $ign & 6LACK (+15) -- I really wish there was a version of this song that had no Ty Dolla $ign or 6LACK, because Khalid has a great groove with the main chorus of the song. If he collaborated with someone who could equal that groove, I could be happier about this song having success. As is, I suppose I'm not upset. There could be worse songs out there rising on the charts. 

70- "I Lived It" - Blake Shelton (+15) -- Not as much country rising on the charts this week, but we do have Blake Shelton getting a good boost. Because, you know, he's Blake Shelton. And this song kinda works, which means country radio will love it.

72- "Sit Next to Me" - Foster the People (+11) -- I was wondering if this Foster the People song was going to do anything. We haven't seen this group on the charts in a while, so as a comeback single this could've used a lot more fire to it like "Pumped Up Kicks." But it's a good radio filler song, so I'll accept it if it decides to gain real traction.

86- "Mercy" - Brett Young (+11) -- I can't be angry at seeing Brett Young rise on the charts. Country radio loves him and usually for good reason. But for me there's been a lot better from him. I don't know if I'm going to remember this song.

87- "Red Roses" - Lil Skies featuring Landon Cube (+12) -- I can be angry at seeing Lil Skies rise. But with this only being at No. 87, there's certainly no reason to panic.

New Arrivals:




46- "Shoota" - Playboi Carti featuring Lil Uzi Vert -- I'm really upset that the top debuting song of the week is a Playboi Carti song. Although with his album "Die Lit" having dropped recently, I suppose I can be happy that I only have to cover one song from it and not the whole thing. This song starts with Lil Uzi going on an extended rant about stealing your girl and spending all this time with her, which is followed by Playboi Carti telling us not to mess with him because he has his shooters from various gangs. He also tells us that he's going to rob a bank and then in the verse he tells us how he loves his money, he loves his guns and he's going to sleep with your girl. It's a mercifully short song at two and a half minutes and feels mostly harmless. It's just generic rap from two thugs who barely know how to rap and aren't worth anything because you're not going to remember this song of there's once it goes away.

49- "Yes Indeed" - Lil Baby & Drake -- Drake has found another friend rapper to give an undeserved boost to. He really needs to stop collaborating with people like BlocBoy JB and Lil Baby because otherwise the rest of the world wouldn't know about these guys and no one have to put up with their nonsense. Now listen, I enjoy both "God's Plan" and "Nice for What," meaning Drake has potential to be interesting. But this song just feels like Drake lost a bet and was forced to collaborate with this dude because he starts it off and it just sounds like he's bored as he gives a lazy, phoned-in verse that means nothing. Then Lil Baby comes in while mumbling and slurring his words and phrases while saying generic rap stuff. So let's just not give this song any attention because if it ends up as high as "Look Alive," I'm going to throw a fit.

50- "Back to You" - Selena Gomez -- Shortly after Ariana shows back up on the charts, we now have Selena giving us a new song. Although I'm not sure this is indicative of a new album for Selena as this is a song from the second season of "13 Reasons Why," of which Selena is an executive producer for. I have a lot of thoughts on this season, because yes, I am halfway through, but I honestly don't know if I've heard this song come up yet. Maybe it did and I didn't think twice because I wasn't looking for it, but whatever the case is, I don't know the context here. I can make a guess, though, because the lyrics have Selena being with someone else, but unable to stop thinking of the person she was with previously. This could be a reference to Clay on the show being with his new girlfriend Skye, but yet not being able to stop thinking about Hannah, who has committed suicide. That's a logical guess, but again, I don't know. Thus if we ignore "13 Reasons" and see this as a solo song, this works pretty well for me. The lyrics are simple enough, but it has an upbeat tempo and a catchy groove that reminds me of "It Ain't Me" and "Wolves." Selena has a really good voice that has matured over the years, thus helping her evolve a mature singer who has really impressed me recently. With this being a soundtrack song, I don't know if it will be pushed like a regular single, but I would love to see it find success and do well on its own outside the show.

74- "Lucid Dreams" - Juice WRLD -- I have no idea where this Juice WRLD guy came from, but he has two songs on the charts this week thanks to a recent album called "Goodbye & Good Riddance" that's doing really well at the moment. On the album, he spends the whole thing venting about a hard breakup. I'm usually pretty harsh on new rappers that show up out of nowhere because most of the time they are crap. And I was ready to do the exact same to this guy while be nervous about covering both tracks. But then I pressed play and was rather surprised at this. This whole song is very melancholy with it's beat and instrumentation. Listening to a version without the lyrics would successfully make me sad on its own, but this guy has actual talent. He has the right tempo with the song and great flow as he vents to us how genuinely sad this breakup has made him. Most rap like this come completely void of emotion, but this one is packed with it as the song makes me feel genuinely bad for this guy as he tells me he thought this girl was the one, but then realized he was thinking with his heart and not his brain. She found someone else and now he's just haunted by her as he realizes that he has to figure out how to replace her, which is easier said than done because he both loves her and hates her at the same time. Then we have the stinger of "Who knew evil girls have the prettiest face?" Ouch. This guy genuinely has me intrigued.  

77- "Me Niego" - Reik featuring Ozuna & Wisin -- It seems we always have to have our obligatory new Latino song on the charts. I have no problem with that as long as they are good songs, which most of the recent ones have not been. This one is fine, though. I learned via Google Translate that "Me Niego" translates to "Me Him," which had me really confused until I realized that said translation was from Polish. Switching that over to Spanish and instead we have "I Refuse," which makes a lot more sense. My brief examination of the lyrics leads me to conclude that this song is about Reik refusing to believe that their relationship is over as he feels brokenhearted. Mostly, though, I stick to analyzing the music itself and when Reik is in, he has a great voice that matches this theme of sadness over a broken relationship rather well. And I actually wish that the song was only him because when he was up, I was enjoying. But there was a lot of switching back and forth between and Ozuna. When Ozuna comes on, it seems like there's less emotion and more just generic Latino music. Wisin doesn't come in until the end, but his fast Latino rap sounds way out of left and doesn't fit the tone of the other two at all. So overall, this song is unbalanced and lopsided due to the three singers stepping on each others' feet, but Reik is really good.

91- "Lust" - Lil Skies -- Another Lil Skies song has crossed over to the Hot 100. His other two songs that debuted back in January were "Nowadays" and "Red Roses," the latter of which jumped up to No. 87 on the charts this week. Long story short with those songs is that I don't like them. All three songs are a part of his new album "Life of a Dark Rose," which I certainly don't care to check out after these three singles from it. "Lust" feels very square and block on the verses with little flow as he rambles about stealing your girl, doing his drugs and bragging about his riches. Then on the chorus he admits that it's all a lot of lust and not a lot of love. Yeah, we got that. Such is the case with all rappers who can only rap about money, jewelry, riches, sex and fame. Now go away and leave the rest of us alone.

92- "All Girls Are the Same" - Juice WRLD --  After being pleasantly surprised by "Lucid Dreams," I was actually intrigued to check out "All Girls Are the Same" to see if this guy could impress me twice in one sitting. Unfortunately this isn't quite as sharp and emotional as "Lucid Dreams," but I still like this guy's style of rap better than most. He's not going too fast or too slow. It seems like a perfect pace. He's not mumbling with his rap or dropping generic lyrics that mean nothing. He's coherent and it sounds like he's rapping about stuff that he cares about. But this specific song has less weight to it than the other one and clinging onto the mindset that all girls are the same is not the best philosophy to have in life, even though admittedly he might be saying it more out of frustration. But the backdrop to this song is less interesting and his lyrics are more repetitive, so I kinda got bored halfway through. But still not a bad outing on the charts this week for Juice WRLD. I'll take him over most of the untalented rappers out there.

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