Tuesday, February 12, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - February 16, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! In this weekly post, I cover three sections. First, I give my thoughts on the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100. Second, I give my thoughts on the songs that experienced significant gains below the top 10. Third, I give my initial thoughts on our new arrivals this week. I reserve the right to switch things up in the future, but for now this is what I'm sticking with. I've followed the Billboard charts for a long time now and this is a great way for me to express my thoughts to the world. I hope you enjoy!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "7 Rings" - Ariana Grande (=) -- This is going to be here for a while. The song fell again on streaming, but only 9 percent to 57.7 million U.S. streams. Plus, it rose in sales to 42,000 downloads sold and cracked the top 10 on radio with 50.6 million audience impression and quickly climbing. I'm not sure why people are gravitating to this song. It's an awful song. Possibly Ariana's worst in terms of quality. But eh. Whatever. The only thing that has the potential to stop it in the immediate future is Ariana herself. Her new album dropped and is set for a huge debut next week. It's a 12-track album and we've already seen three of the songs, so I'm expecting the other nine to be new entries next week. Leading the charge out of those nine is "break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored." I'm not sure what the streaming numbers on that one are, though.

2- "Happier" - Marshmello & Bastille (+6) -- This is where I sound like an old man. In Billboard weekly article regarding the top 10, I read that "Happier" got a huge boost because of a "Fortnite" concert. I don't even know what "Fortnite" is outside the fact that it's a huge game that's blown up recently. Apparently you can have live concerts inside the game, though, which is what Marshmello did. Because of him uploading at least a portion of the concert set to his YouTube channel and other gamers uploading various clips from it, "Happier" soared up to 51.8 million U.S. streams. So that's cool. I don't know how long that'll last, but I'm totally fine with that. The "Fortnite" concert also caused Marshmello's song "Alone," perhaps my favorite Marshmello song, to re-enter the Hot 100 at No. 28, which is a new high for that song. It had previously reached No. 60 in November 2016 after being Marshmello's first Hot 100 entry.

3- "Without Me" - Halsey (-1) -- All this means that Halsey is the big loser this week, being forced down to No. 3. And who knows what's going to happen next week. I could predict "Happier" crashing back down to earth next week, helping Halsey to go back up to No. 2. But I have no idea if a new Ariana song is going to come screaming into the top five next week or not. We'll have to wait and see.

4- "Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)" - Post Malone & Swae Lee (-1) -- Post and Swae are in the same position as Halsey. This could go back up to No. 3 next week. But we'll have to see how things shape out next week. At the very least, I could see these two songs recovering in two weeks. I don't think they're going away.

5- "SICKO MODE" - Travis Scott (=) -- The good news of the week is that Travis Scott got a huge boost from the Super Bowl halftime show, but it wasn't enough for the song to actually go anywhere on the charts. It was up 63 percent in sales to 17,000 downloads sold and up 5 percent in streaming to 41.7 million U.S. streams. But all that accomplished was keeping it ahead of "High Hopes" at No. 6. J. Cole crashed down this week, but he was replaced by Marshmello, as I've previously talked about. And I'm guessing there will be an after effect here with Travis Scott collapsing next week. I'm hoping that's the beginning of this song going away.

6- "High Hopes" - Panic! At the Disco (+1) -- Due to Ariana cannibalizing herself by releasing too many singles in a short period of time, "High Hopes" is able to sneak back up to No. 6. And if it wasn't for that Ariana album bomb next week, I'd say this may have the potential to sneak ahead of "SICKO MODE" next week. But the reality is that both songs might be pushed down next week.

7- "thank u, next" - Ariana Grande (-1) -- The long term prognosis for this song isn't good thanks to "7 Rings" dominating. But this is going to get a good album boost next week. But I imagine it could be in danger of falling out of the top 10 the week after.

8- "Middle Child" - J. Cole (-4) -- I was expecting "Middle Child" to crash this week after it soared high last week on its first full week of tracking. But it manages to not bleed too much. The next few weeks will be the big indicator as far as what this song is going to do going forward. If it can manage to survive Ariana next week and start gaining traction, then I could see it sticking around. Or it can continue to bleed and flat out disappear. I hope it stays around, though. If we have to have some rap songs in the top 10 at all times, I'd rather this song hold a place because its one of the more tolerable rap songs. J. Cole seemed to actually try with this one, which is something that I can't say for most rappers that find success today.

9- "Wow." - Post Malone (=) -- I've been expecting this song to start gaining in the top 10, but I'm certainly glad to see that it's not getting as much traction as previous Post Malone songs. Maybe people are realizing that this song sucks?

10- "Girls Like You" - Maroon 5 featuring Cardi B (=) -- The bad news of the week is that "Girls Like You" has officially tied Ed Sheeran's "Shape of You" for the longest run in the top 10 with 33 weeks. How and why Maroon 5 pulled that off is really disgusting. The good news is that the Super Bowl halftime performance wasn't able to get the song to move anywhere. I was partially expecting this to soar up into the top five, or at least get close. But the boost only managed to keep the song clinging on to this final spot. Once those numbers collapse next week, I'm hoping that'll cause the song to FINALLY fall out of the top 10. And stay out. The fact that this song was able to stay in the top 10 for over half a year is an absolute stain against the music industry.


Rising on the Hot 100:





12- "A Lot" - 21 Savage (+14) -- Is this song getting a huge push because 21 Savage's legal troubles? Because a convicted felon getting busted for living here illegally for over a decade is some sort of social injustice? The evil police officers arrested a black rapper, so we're going to revolt? That's disgusting.

14- "bury a friend" - Billie Eilish (+60) -- On the exact opposite note from the last song, I'm in a state of pure joy right now in seeing the news that "bury a friend" has jumped up 60 spots this week. I'm also stunned at that news as well. I realize that it debuted last week after only a few days of tracking, but I didn't think that would mean a top 20 appearance this week. As successful as Billie has been with her consistent number of debuts and surprising longevity, she's been the queen of the bottom half of the Hot 100 as she had yet to cross over to the top 50. Until now. Is this where Billie gets her big break? I hope so. This song is about as strange and unique as it comes, which is part of the reason why I love it. I just don't know if it's too strange or not for the general public. Streaming seems to be on board, which is great news. But will the radio pick up on this? I have no idea. It might get pushed back next week thanks to Ariana's album combined with a natural second week fall. But I hope this can gain traction and stick around. Billie deserves to be 2019's biggest rising star. Her debut album comes in late March, hopefully that's good timing that'll give this song a boost.

18- "Better" - Khalid (+5) -- Here's a Khalid song that's been slowly gaining traction. I'm not sure how much potential the song has, given how slow it has risen. But maybe that's just me being a Grinch since I think this is a very weak song for Khalid. But I suppose if it keeps climbing and hits top 10, it won't be the end of the world. It would still be better than a lot of the songs that have hit the top 10 recently.

19- "MIA" - Bad Bunny featuring Drake (+3) -- This song has had its time in the spotlight. It's not managed to get back into the top 10, which is a good thing. But it's done a good job at sticking around in the mid section of the Hot 100.

20- "Thotiana" - Blueface (+8) -- Why this song has now gained top 20 status confuses me. It's a piece of trash. Let's get it out of here.

26- "Dancing with a Stranger" - Sam Smith &Normani (+5) -- I would appreciate it if this song would climb a bit faster. I want it to be a big hit, but it's taking its time to break out, which has me nervous. Same thing goes with Ava Max's "Sweet but Psycho," which I haven't even been able to include here because it only rises one or two spots each week. It's currently standing at No. 30 this week. Both songs deserve to be big hits.

32- "Look Back at It" - A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+8) -- Why is this song gaining traction?

42- "This is It" - Scotty McCreery (+7) -- I suppose I'm not surprised to see Scotty doing well. I'm still not particularly happy about it, though. But it's whatever.

58- "Take It from Me" - Jordan Davis (+10) -- I have a hard time even remembering this one. Just another boring country song from an untalented country singer.

61- "when the party's over" - Billie Eilish (+15) -- This is what I mean when I saw that Billie is the queen of the bottom half of the Hot 100. "when the party's over" has now spent 16 weeks on the charts. But it's peak is at No. 52. It's a bit of a strange run, but I'll take it. As as long as Billie can stick around, that's great news for me.

66- "lovely" - Billie Eilish & Khalid (+15) -- Speaking of which. Here's Billie again. This is a song that debuted way back in June. It keeps falling off the charts, then re-entering, climbing and falling again. It's accumulated a total of 15 weeks on the charts, but its peak is at No. 64. Maybe Billie's album in March will finally vault all of these songs into the top 50 as she slowly gains recognition with the general public.

83- "Talk to Me" - Tory Lanez & Rich the Kid (+11) -- I don't care about this.


New Arrivals:





56- "One Call" - Gunna -- Only two new arrivals this week. And I'm going to ignore one of them. I don't care about Gunna and neither should you. Let's move onto Kelsea!

95- "Miss Me More" - Kelsea Ballerini -- I almost missed this song. It was hidden among a handful of re-entries in the 90's. I'm glad I caught it, though, or else I would have nothing to talk about. Kelsea is a country pop singer who I really enjoy and this song comes from her 2017 album "Unapologetically." I didn't do a favorite albums list for 2018 because I didn't listen to enough albums last year. But I did one for 2017 and "Unapologetically" made the cut, so "Miss Me More" isn't a really a new song for me. The only thing strange here is the timing. Kelsea didn't release any singles from this album last year after releasing it at the end of 2017. Not any that charted, that is. So it's a bit strange to see her wait so long before finally getting another song from the album out there. But hey, I'm not complaining. In terms of the song, it has a fun, upbeat tune mixed with the right amount of attitude. It's a breakup song, but it's a bit of a sassy breakup song as she states that she thought she would miss her now ex-lover, but it turns out she misses herself more. In others, she's realizing how much she missed her previous life before she was with this person. So she's kinda shoving it in his face. In terms of songs from the album, "In Between," "End of the World" and "I Hate Love Songs" are my favorite three. But this is an enjoyable one, too.

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