Wednesday, May 29, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - June 1, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Old Town Road" - Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus (=) -- I think this song has officially hit its peak. It soared up 27 percent to 130.7 million U.S. streams thanks to the boost it had this week from the official music video. It was also up 9 percent in sales to 76,000 downloads sold and doesn't have a whole lot more momentum on the radio, up just 4 percent to 87.5 million audience impressions. From here on out, I think it's going to start declining in all categories. The problem is that it now has three official versions of the song and six different music videos as well as steady numbers across all streaming platforms, so said decline is going to be really slow. It's now had eight weeks at No. 1, with seven of those weeks getting 100+ million U.S. streams. I don't really understand why this is becoming the most streamed song in the history of, like, ever, but I'm ready for a change. It just might be another month or two before we get there because none of the songs below it right now are anywhere close.

2- "I Don't Care" - Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (=) -- After debuting at No. 2 last week, Ed and Justin celebrate a second week at No. 2. The song nosedived 62 percent in sales to 29,000 downloads sold, but only fell 10 percent in streaming to 30.5 million U.S. streams. One reason for the streaming holding a bit more steady is that the first full week of tracking for the song's official music video counts towards this week. Outside that, the radio continues to climb as the song is now at No. 10 on the radio charts with 58.2 million audience impressions, up 19 percent from last week. But as some of these other songs in the top 10 will witness, radio play only takes you so far, so if this song is going to stick around, it'll have to have maintain more stability in sales and streaming.

3- "bad guy" - Billie Eilish (+1) -- Challenging to overtake Ed and Justin for that No. 2 spot is Billie Eilish. She's only down 4 percent in streaming when compared to last week with 38.5 million U.S. streams. Sales increased 16 percent to 18,000 downloads sold and the song continues to charge up the radio charts, up 24 percent to 29.8 million audience impressions. So yeah, that radio still has a long way to go, but the fact that it's getting a good radio push makes me happy because, until a week or two ago, said radio numbers were close to zero. Billie was hanging around with pretty much streaming alone. Now that she's gaining traction in all categories while also maintaining good streaming, this song is going stick around for a while, which makes me super happy. If it wasn't for "Old Town Road" being 100 million U.S. streams ahead of her right now, I'd even say she has a chance at that No. 1 spot. But all things considered, with Billie set to hang out in the top five for a good portion of the summer, I think this is a huge will for the charts.

4- "Sucker" - Jonas Brothers (-1) -- Jonas Brothers get knocked down a bit this week thanks to Billie charging forward, but this song is still getting a ton of radio play right now as it returns to No. 1 on the radio charts this week, momentarily dethroning "Dancing with a Stranger," for a fourth week on top of the radio as it essentially remains even with last week, falling less than 1 percent to 105.7 million audience impressions. So I don't envision this will be leaving the top 10 anytime soon. Although it does have a solid chance to knocked down again thanks to our next song on the list.

5- "Talk" - Khalid (+4) -- In addition to Billie charging forward, Khalid is also looking very strong right now as he gets his first top five hit as a lead artist. He was previously in the top five as a featured act on Logic's "1-800-273-8255." Helping him out the most is his radio traction as he rises 8 percent to 75.7 million audience impressions while also getting good boosts in sales and streaming, although those latter numbers aren't too high yet. But still, that means there's plenty more room for this song to grow. If it wasn't for "Old Town Road" still being miles ahead of everyone, I'd say this song also has a chance for the No. 1 spot. But let's see where things are in a month from now. At the least, I now think this song is going to remain steady in the top five.

6- "Wow." - Post Malone (-1) -- Outside our No. 1 song this week, I like our current top five. I'm glad that Post Malone again got kicked out of the region. Let's keep it that way.

7- "Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)" - Post Malone & Swae Lee (-1) -- With "Without Me" having fallen out of the top 10 this week, the race for the No. 1 spot for 2019 on my personal Excel charts is over for now. "Sunflower" will hang onto that lead. Although in fairness, "Without Me" spent eight weeks last year in the top 10, with six of those weeks being in the top five, while "Sunflower" only had three weeks last year in the top 10, only one of those weeks being in the top five. So if we're looking at the decades chart, "Without Me" is still significantly ahead of "Sunflower" and will probably remain ahead since I don't give many points for being in the bottom half of the top 10. But looking strictly at 2019, "Sunflower" is the most popular song. And even if it falls off next week, which I don't see it doing, it would take "Old Town Road" nine weeks of being No. 1 to pass it. That might eventually happen, but check in with me in two months from now. Also, I certainly hope "Old Town Road" doesn't get nine more weeks at No. 1. That would put it at 17 weeks on top, breaking the all-time record that is currently a tie with "One Sweet Day" and "Despacito" getting 16 weeks each. "Old Town Road" is not the song that deserves to pass that.

8- "Dancing with a Stranger" - Sam Smith & Normani (-1) -- "Dancing with a Stranger" still has strong radio, even though it gave up the No. 1 spot to "Sucker" this week. However, it appears that radio is all this song is getting at the moment, which means it's probably not going to get much higher. Although it might remain steady towards the bottom here. It only fell one spot because Khalid shot up super high with "Talk."

9- "ME!" - Taylor Swift & Brendon Urie (-1) -- The news isn't too good for Taylor Swift and Brendan Urie, either. Although not a complete failure by any means, this is holding worse than "Look What You Made Me Do" did when it was the lead-off single for "reputation." There's still some hope for the song, though, if it can manage to stabilize enough. But being at the No. 9 spot, it's officially in danger of slipping out of the top 10.

10- "Sweet but Psycho" - Ava Max (+2) -- FINALLY!!! It's about time that Ava Max made it into the top 10. Now I don't know if there's any of you that only read my top 10 thoughts. If so, that's totally fine. Otherwise you'll know that I've been cheering on this song for quite some time now. I've loved it ever since I listened to it in late December. It was one of those experiences where, after you listen to it for the first time, you have to then listen to it another 10 times because it's that awesome. Given that this Ava Max's first hit on the Hot 100, it's not something that grabbed people's attention right away, which is why it took 23 weeks for it to crack the top 10. Said 23 weeks is the longest journey to the top 10 for a solo female artist since Anna Kendrick's "Cups" took 28 weeks in 2013. Although since the U.K. charts are much better than the U.S. charts, the song already ruled those charts for four weeks back in January. This also has done quite well in many countries in Europe. We're just slow here in the U.S. But hey, I'm glad that it finally got here. My hope is that this song will continue to slowly climb, but we'll take things one week at a time. For now we just celebrate its arrival in the top 10!  


Rising on the Hot 100:





14- "Suge" - DaBaby (+2) -- Only two songs on the rising songs section this week thanks to the double album bomb from Tyler, the Creator and DJ Khaled. Unfortunately out of all songs, this is one of the two songs that rose. That's gross. But hey, a slow week this week for the rising songs means that half of the chart might be here next week.

45- "Rumor" - Lee Brice (+8) -- The only other song to crack this section is Lee Brice hitting the top 50. That's not very good news, either. Not all that surprising, though.


New Arrivals:





13- "Earfquake" - Tyler, The Creator -- I honestly thought this was going to debut in the top 10 this week. I'm a bit surprised that it didn't. But given that it didn't, I feel no obligation to cover it. Or any of Tyler, The Creator's eight songs that debuted this week. I don't do album bombs anymore unless it's an album that I really like. That said, I'm not that familiar with Tyler, The Creator. If you are and you would like my thoughts on any of his songs, let me know what the best of his eight songs are that debuted this week and I'll give it a chance. If I somehow like it, I might explore more. If I think it's crap, like most rap these days, I'll officially be done with Tyler, The Creator. So the ball is in your court. The thing is, I don't think any of my friends reading this post care that much, so I highly doubt I'll get anyone to take me up on this, which is why I don't feel bad skipping this, especially since he spelled earthquake like that. That just screams incompetency. I don't think it's cool or hip to misspell words like that. I think it's stupid. 

15- "Nightmare" - Halsey -- This is good timing for Halsey. On the week where "Without Me" falls out of the top 10, "Nightmare" debuts on the Hot 100. Given our recent string of top 10 debuts, I'm a bit surprised that Halsey couldn't make it on. But maybe people were too busy streaming the other two albums for this to have a huge debut. But either way, other pop stars should take note that this is how you manage your singles releases. Let one single run its course, then once it starts falling, release the next. I'm specifically looking at Ariana Grande's team. Notice how Ariana is now M.I.A. from charts because of too many releases crammed too close together? Yeah, no coincidences there. Halsey's team did things right. Onto the song now. She starts this off by quoting a children's Christian bedtime prayer from 1750, which provides an interesting touch to a song that is fairly poignant and emotional. This feels like Halsey is speaking from her heart as she recounts that she doesn't care if she's someone's nightmare. In talking about the inspiration behind the song, she says that she used to smile when people asked her to and felt bad when they said awful things when she didn't. Thus she spent a lot of time acting fake and treating people nice when they didn't deserve it so that she wouldn't make herself look bad. Now she says she doesn't care and that is related in this song. I often get bored with Halsey's music because she often doesn't seem to care that much about writing good music. But this song has enough emotion and heart behind it for me to support it. I also think her vocals are pretty good as she gets to the chorus and that's certainly a plus.

19- "Wish Wish" - DJ Khaled featuring Cardi B & 21 Savage -- I have no interest in touching a DJ Khaled album bomb.

21- "Higher" - DJ Khaled featuring Nipsey Hussle & John Legend -- I have no interest in touching a DJ Khaled album bomb.

43- "Just Us" - DJ Khaled featuring SZA -- I have no interest in touching a DJ Khaled album bomb.

44- "You Stay" - DJ Khaled featuring Meek Mill, J Balvin, Lil Baby & Jeremih -- I have no interest in touching a DJ Khaled album bomb.

51- "I Think" - Tyler, The Creator -- See my note on No. 13 about Tyler, The Creator.

52- "Celebrate" - DJ Khaled featuring Travis Scott & Post Malone -- I have no interest in touching a DJ Khaled album bomb.

57- "Jealous" - DJ Khaled featuring Chris Brown, Lil Wayne & Big Sean -- I have no interest in touching a DJ Khaled album bomb.

65- "Running Out of Time" - Tyler, The Creator -- See my note on No. 13 about Tyler, The Creator.

67- "Igor's Theme" - Tyler, The Creator -- See my note on No. 13 about Tyler, The Creator.

70- "New Magic Wand" - Tyler, The Creator -- See my note on No. 13 about Tyler, The Creator.

74- "A Boy is a Gun" - Tyler, The Creator -- See my note on No. 13 about Tyler, The Creator.

85- "What's Good" - Tyler, The Creator -- See my note on No. 13 about Tyler, The Creator.

86- "What If I Never Get Over You"- Lady Antebellum -- Hidden towards the bottom of all this Tyler, The Creator and DJ Khaled stuff is randomly a new song from Lady Antebellum. My biggest issue with Lady Antebellum is that this is an awful name for a country group. It would be a great name for an individual female singer, but I've always thought it was a weird name for a group. That said, I've typically enjoyed their music, although it's been a while since they've been here. They showed up briefly in 2017 with "You Look Good," which peaked at No. 59 on the Hot 100 in 2017. Prior to that, the previous time they showed up was in 2014 with "Bartender," a song that I don't know if I've ever listened to. So I don't know if I can call myself a fan. But I love their big top 10 hits from 8-10 years ago, that being "Need You Now" in 2009 and "Just a Kiss" in 2011. So I was definitely fine with seeing them again. And while "What If I Never Get Over You" is not necessarily the most original song ever in terms of the lyrics, it's a very relatable song as they're singing about not being able to get over this person, while having the thought in the back of their mind that what if they never get over said person? The element of relatability combined with a solid effort vocally is what makes this song work, in my opinion. Charles Kelly and Hillary Scott play off each other quite well, as if they've been doing this for a while. Their chemistry and balance is what's made me always like Lady Antebellum and they bring it here. I don't know how the rest of the country is going to take this, but I think this is nice country-pop crossover, thus I'd be happy if it could at least manage to get higher than their previous effort.     

88- "Puppet" - Tyler, The Creator -- See my note on No. 13 about Tyler, The Creator.

91- "Weather the Storm" - DJ Khaled featuring Meek Mill & Lil Baby -- I have no interest in touching a DJ Khaled album bomb.

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