Tuesday, July 9, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - July 13, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Old Town Road" - Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus (=) -- A 14th week at No. 1 for "Old Town Road" and it remained steady on both sales and streaming, despite plummeting again on radio. That's 57,000 downloads sold, down just 4 percent, 89.3 million U.S. streams, up 1 percent, and 75.8 million audience impressions on radio, down 8 percent. In terms of songs that have ruled for 14 weeks, it is currently in an eight-way tie there along with "Uptown Funk," "I Gotta Feeling," "We Belong Together," "Candle in the Wind 1997 / Something About the Way You Look Tonight," "Macarena," "I'll Make Love to You" and "I Will Always Love You." Now the only songs ahead of it are the two songs tied for 16 weeks at top, "One Sweet Day" and "Despacito." It's biggest challenger at the moment is again Billie Eilish's "bad guy," but Billboard reports that there is a 1.9 to 1 difference between the two songs in terms of chart points, which actually sees "Old Town Road" increasing the margin compared to last week, so a 15th week at No. 1 for "Old Town Road" is a foregone conclusion at this point as I don't see "Goodbyes" by Post Malone getting a strong enough debut to knock out, with that of course being next week's top debut.

2- "bad guy" - Billie Eilish (+1) -- It continues to be a rather impressive run for Billie Eilish as "bad guy" survives a flurry of new debuts to once again be at No. 2. But as I mentioned, the margin remains too large for her to have a shot at No. 1 before the record gets broken. But given how consistent this song is on streaming and how the radio continues to climb, this song certainly isn't going away anytime soon.

3- "Talk" - Khalid (+1) -- Khalid tops the radio charts for a fourth week, rising another 7 percent to 126.9 million audience impressions. Sales and streaming still are still significantly behind "bad guy," though, which is why this song remains at No. 3. Also like "bad guy," this song isn't going anywhere.

4- "I Don't Care" - Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (+1) -- It appears that Ed and Justin have managed to maintain some traction here, which is certainly good news for Ed because he'll continue to have a stream of songs debuting on the charts with his upcoming collaboration album. One additional song debuts this week, so we'll get to that below.

5- "Señorita" - Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello (-3) -- All things considered, this is not a bad drop for "Señorita." Last time Shawn Mendes debuted at No. 2, he fell completely out of the top 10 and hasn't yet managed to resurface. The same thing happened to Taylor Swift last week with "You Need to Calm Down." So remaining in the top five in week two is a good. But now what happens from here on out will be the real story. Can this song gain traction and stick around like "I Don't Care"?

6- "Truth Hurts" - Lizzo (+5) -- I'm not surprised that Lizzo made the top 10 this week. That was certainly expected. I am a bit surprised that she jumped all the way to No. 6, though. But doing so puts Lizzo in great position as "Truth Hurts" is gaining fast in all categories. It might be a while before she breaks into the top three, as those songs are all pretty strong right now, but I'm expecting it to hit top five next week and then camp out there for the foreseeable future. This will be one of 2019's biggest hits.

7- "Sucker" - Jonas Brothers (-1) -- The Jonas Brothers are being stubborn here as they aren't going to go quietly. "Sucker" only falls one spot and I think it still has several weeks of life left in it. Its weeks are still numbered, though.

8- "Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)" - Post Malone & Swae Lee (+4) -- "Wow." has left the top 10 this week, which is great news, but Post Malone isn't going away as "Sunflower" takes a bit of a surprising surge back into the top 10. At first I was a bit confused, but then I was reminded that "Into the Spider-Verse" recently debuted on Netflix, which explains things. Even if this falls back out, we might not be done with Post Malone as he appears to have timed his next single quite well. As I referred to earlier, "Goodbyes" is set to be next week's big debut. Even though I don't expect it to come anywhere close to dethroning "Old Town Road," I'm expecting a top 10 debut next week, especially since Nos. 7 - 10 right now aren't that strong.

9- "No Guidance" - Chris Brown featuring Drake (=) -- I'm mad that this song is stubbornly sticking around. But at least it doesn't appear to have enough momentum to gain traction, meaning it should be gone before too long.

10- "Suge" - DaBaby (-3) -- This is great news. "Suge" has apparently hit its peak and will hopefully be gone within a few weeks. And mark my words, no one on Earth will remember that this song was ever a thing.


Rising on the Hot 100:





16- "The Git Up" - Blanco Brown (+13) -- Yet another huge increase for Blanco Brown with what is set to be 2019's next big dance craze. While "The Git Up" is feeding off of "Old Town Road" with its combination of country and hip-hop, it has one advantage that "Old Town Road" didn't. Country radio is actually supporting this as this song has now taken over the Hot Country Songs, a lead that it will probably retain for a very long time. Combine support from multiple metrics with a big dance craze that will soon take over the world and that's a recipe for huge success.

18- "Hey Look Ma, I Made It" - Panic! At the Disco (+6) -- A second song this week cracks the top 20 as Panic!'s latest song now is king of the Hot Rock Songs for a second week. Unlike "The Git Up," I'm not 100 percent sure that this song has top 10 potential. I certainly wouldn't be offended if it made it. It would certainly be better than songs like "Suge" and "No Guidance." But sometimes songs have a habit of getting stuck in the teens for a while and I have a feeling that this is what's going to happen here.

24- "Beer Never Broke My Heart" - Luke Combs (+9) -- Make this one go away, please.

29- "Pure Water" - Mustard & Migos (+9) -- I'm not sure what sparked the big rise for "Pure Water" this week. I'm guessing it was the album release of Mustard's "Perfect Ten"? Either way, this song has been on the charts for over 20 weeks, and although it's managed to annoyingly stick around for a long time, it doesn't have the momentum to get much higher than it already is.

34- "Speechless" - Dan + Shay (+10) -- This song was initially released back in September, so it's had quite the lengthy run. I'm fine with it stick around for a bit longer, I suppose.

35- "Ran$om" - Lil Tecca (+16) -- Someone stop this song from rising so quick.

46- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (+7) -- Welcome to the top 50, Lewis Capaldi! It's already been quite the journey for this song in getting here, but I hope it stays a while and continues to inch its way up the charts. It doesn't seem like it's ever going to be a massive hit here, but it's a decent sleeper hit that could end up doing quite well.

50- "Knockin' Boots" - Luke Bryan (+11) -- Don't care about this one.

55- "Some of It" - Eric Church (+11) -- This one is alright, I suppose.

86- "Cash S---" - Megan Thee Stallion featuring DaBaby (+12) -- Nope. This needs to die.

New Arrivals:




26- "Beautiful People" - Ed Sheeran featuring Khalid -- I've been a bit mixed so far on Ed Sheeran's latest project of collaborations. Looking at the track listing for it, I'm sure that will continue to be the case because a lot of Ed's featured guests kinda scare me. But out of all of them, this one seemed like it would be one that would work nicely. I like both Ed and Khalid. I also think they have voices that are unique enough that you can easily tell the difference between them. And, yeah, well, vocally they do work a lot better than Ed and Justin do, but the problem with this song is that it's rather empty lyrically. Khalid himself only gets one verse and one chorus, most of which is just repeating what Ed previously sang, thus his existence on the song is not really justified. And while Ed is good with his simple pop songs, they're usually at least packed with enough emotion and sincerity to make them work. But this time around, he's just singing about feeling awkward in social situations. He's with a bunch of beautiful, yet he doesn't feel like he fits in. And that's really kinda it. The song just doesn't have much life to it.

63- "Higher Love" - Kygo & Whitney Houston -- Whitney Houston on the charts in 2019? I didn't see that coming. Not until, like, last week when I saw that this was released, anyways. Like most people in the world, I love Whitney Houston. Her voice was one of the best ever. But as I'm not a Whitney megafan, I had to do some quick digging to figure out where this came from. Turns out "Higher Love" was originally recorded in 1986 by Steve Winwood, becoming a No. 1 hit for a week. Whitney covered it in 1990, but never released it as a single. In fact, it was only released as a bonus track on the Japanese version of her third studio album "I'm Your Baby Tonight." That made it a bit tough to find the non-Kygo version to compare this to. I did listen to the original Steve Winwood song and that was a solid 80's song that I enjoyed. The only version of Whitney's that I found was a low quality live performance on YouTube.

In regards to this Kygo version of the song, I'm not sure an EDM remix of a Whitney Houston song really does her voice justice. She fits best on her own with her own her production. I think if I were to find a high quality version of her original cover, that would far supersede this Kygo remix. I can say with a certainty that Steve Winwood's original is much better. I think the authentic 80's production is is a better fit for the song than a tropical house remix in 2019. However, that's me just nitpicking because I press play and Whitney's voice just wins me over. It almost doesn't even matter what she's singing about. She just has a unique power to her voice that few artists have ever been able to match. And if we have to have an EDM remix of this song, then Kygo is the best choice. He made this song as good as it can be, I think. And imagine if this song becomes a hit? Whitney Houston doing well in 2019? I'm down for that!

65- "Que Pretendes" - J Balvin & Bad Bunny -- I didn't spend much time on this one. A Latinx song featuring Bad Bunny has almost made it to the skippable range. But I've enjoyed J Balvin enough to give this a chance. But no he doesn't save this. The song has no life to it. It's too slow and doesn't have any energy behind it. Which of course is not helped by Bad Bunny's incoherent mumbling.

67- "Don't Check on Me" - Chris Brown featuring Justin Bieber & Ink -- Nope. Not giving Chris Brown even one streaming number. Although I do laugh at him because his new 32-track album "Indigo" was only able to get one new song to chart this week.

78- "When I Grow Up" - NF -- I searched this song and one of the top results was a song from The Pussycat Dolls. So out of amusement, I pressed play. And, well, I'm not here to review that song, but it certainly has more life to it than this song from NF. And more interesting lyrics given that both songs are about pretty much the same thing. They're both essentially sung from the perspective of their younger selves. But The Pussycat Dolls have more honest and realistic dreams with a more interesting turn out as reality hits. But NF just raps about wanting to grow up, sign a record deal, make a few million, buy a house on a hill and be able to pay his bills. He says he doesn't care about being the best in the business and he acknowledges that his lyrics might suck, but that's OK. And I guess it's just a bit strange to her. Most rappers are singing about how awesome they are and how they're the best in the business. Yet NF sings about how he sucks and he's not the best, but at least he's real and he's making his money. So yeah, since NF just opened the door for me and begged me to walk right through, I'm going to take it. This song sucks. The lyrics suck. The rap isn't good. But whatever. If all NF wants to do is earn a paycheck, I guess mission accomplished?

81- "My Type" - Saweetie -- How many more Cardi B wannabes are we going to get in 2019? I suppose I can say it's relieving that we are getting more female representation in the rap world. Speaking of representation, Saweetie was born to a Filipino-Chinese mother and an African-American father, so there's all types of representation here. I just wish there was more... talent. Granted, this girl's flow is good. But the content is just the same awful trash as everyone else. So I'll pass.

84- "Lalala" - Y2K & bbno$ -- What in the blazes is this? Get it away from me!

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