Thursday, November 21, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - November 23, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Special note. From now until the end of the holiday season, I am adding a fourth section to this category. Christmas songs! There were a lot of Christmas songs that dominated the charts last year and I'm excited to track them all in their own separate section.

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (=) -- One of the top comments on this music video was someone thanking Ed Sheeran and Adele for having this wonderful child. The more I thought about that, the more I understood why that comment had 25,000 likes. And then there's the one person in the replies that's like, "Wait, he is?" Doh! That comment went right over that person's head. But seriously, if you combined Ed Sheeran and Adele into one person, both in terms of physical appearance and musical style, you get Lewis Capaldi. Which is why I'm glad he's now celebrating his third week at No. 1 with consistent enough numbers across the board, even though it seems like the song is just on the brink of spiraling downwards. That makes sense considering it's already been on the Hot 100 for quite some time. It seems like it's going to eventually give way to "Circles," but this week is not that week.

2- "Circles" - Post Malone (=) -- The margins between "Someone You Loved" and "Circles" are quite close. "Someone You Loved" is currently No. 1 on radio with 98.1 million audience impressions (down 3 percent), No. 7 on streaming with 24.6 million U.S. streams and No. 8 on sales with 12,000 downloads sold. So you can see that it's propped up by radio. Meanwhile, "Circles" is gaining on radio, rising 6 percent to 88.4 million audience impressions. The problem is that it's falling in the other two categories as it's No. 6 on streaming with 23 million U.S. streams (down 6 percent) and No. 5 on sales with 15,000 downloads sold. So the continued competition here might be determined by which song can fall slower.

3- "Señorita" - Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello (=) -- Meanwhile, as the rest of the top five shifts around quite a bit, "Señorita" manages to stay put at No. 3, giving it 17 weeks in the top three despite only holding the No. 1 spot for one week. I wasn't expecting this, but it's starting to sneak up on "bad guy" and "Sunflower," which are No. 2 and No. 3 on my personal tracking of the most popular songs of 2019. There's actually only one more week on Billboard's calendar year since they go December through November so that they can put out their year-end list in the beginning of December instead of in January. Because of that, "Señorita" might get shafted when it comes to Billboard's year end list. But since I am a normal person and my year goes from January through December, there's still a whole month for "Señorita" to continue to climb up my list.

4- "Good as Hell" - Lizzo (+2) -- For another week, Lizzo is right behind Shawn and Camila. However, this time it's "Good as Hell" that is here, as it swapped spots with "Truth Hurts." And as I think about it, with the three songs above it not the strongest, "Good as Hell" is in good position to potentially go No. 1.

5- "Memories" - Maroon 5 (+4) -- After a few weeks of getting trapped right below the top 10, "Memories" has now shot up into the top five, become Maroon 5's 10th top five hit. Maroon 5 already held the record for most top five hits for a group, but now they extend their lead. The second best there is The Black Eyed Peas with seven. And do you know what? I've been conflicted with this one because my brain is naturally configured to dislike Maroon 5, but I'm going to own up to this. I think this is a good song. It's certainly helped by its sample of "Cannon in D," but I think that's a sample that works quite well. If you're one of the people that don't like this song, I get it. I'm on that boat 90 percent of the time with Maroon 5. But this time around is the exception. If you don't like it, you're in for a rough ride because now it looks like this one has all sorts of momentum. More positive momentum than "Good as Hell" does at the moment.

6- "Truth Hurts" - Lizzo (-2) -- Solid run for "Truth Hurts," but it's now on its way out. No hard feelings, though. We got Lizzo to switch spots with herself and I am totally fine with that because "Good as Hell" is the better song, anyways.

7- "No Guidance" - Chris Brown featuring Drake (=) -- This needs to go. The fact that it stayed put this week despite there being plenty movement around it is upsetting to me.

8- "Lose You to Love You" - Selena Gomez (-3) -- I really hope that Selena can gain traction with this song. I'm glad she got her first ever No. 1 hit, but now I want said hit to stick around because this is a good song.

9- "Panini" - Lil Nas X (-1) -- This also needs to go away.

10- "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber (=) -- We got no new top 10 entries this week, so this hangs out at No. 10 this week. It doesn't seem to have a whole lot of positive or negative momentum. It's just kinda stuck here, which is fine with me.


Rising on the Hot 100:





11- "Even Though I'm Leaving" - Luke Combs (+22) -- Consider me surprised this week. Thanks to Luke Combs' album dropping, this song nearly shot up to the top 10, which is a rare occasion for a country song that doesn't have a pop act attached to it. Given the album boost, I fully expect this to drop quite a bit next week. I would be shocked if it ever got to the top 10. If it did, I wouldn't be super upset. I mean, better this than "No Guidance" or "Panini." But I would be a bit confused as to how Luke Combs of all people was able to break the trend of country acts unable to hit the top 10. This song isn't bad. But it's also not too terribly special.

12- "HIGHEST IN THE ROOM" - Travis Scott (+2) -- This has managed to annoyingly stick around. But as of yet it hasn't climbed back into the top 10. I would like to keep it that way. Now excuse me while I go knock on some wood.

14- "Trampoline" - SHAED (+2) -- Instead of sending Travis Scott or Luke Combs into the top 10, let's send SHAED. I've enjoyed this song ever since first hearing it and I'm glad that a smaller song like this has been able to sneak into our current pop culture and it would be great to see it become an even bigger hit than it is.

20- "One Man Band" - Old Dominion (+8) -- An excellent week for country with a second new entry into the top 20. I'm less surprised here because for some reason Old Dominion is a big thing, but I've not ever really cared. This song is alright, though.

26- "Lover" - Taylor Swift (+17) -- If you're wondering why this shot up this week despite being fairly stagnant in recent weeks, it's because she released a new remix of this song that adds Shawn Mendes. He doesn't get featured credit on the charts because the remix with him didn't contribute to at least 50 percent of the song's chart points. But his addition to the song is a welcome inclusion. This is the type of ballad that is good with two singers, so this is now a nice duet. Mr. Mendes may have been included simply to help boost the songs sales as opposed to Taylor feeling like he needed to be on the song to improve it's quality. But whatever the motivation, the final result is positive. And if it gives the song the necessary boost to propel it forwards, I'm down with that. Although I'm curious to see if it actually gains more traction or if this was just a one-week boost due to the release of the remix.

27- "Roxanne" - Arizona Zervas (+7) -- Make this go away.

47- "Juicy" - Doja Cat & Tyga (+20) -- Make this go away.

48- "The Bones" - Maren Morris (+6) -- Maren enters the top 50. I don't know how much traction this is going to get beyond the usual country trajectory, but this is a good song to be played on country radio.

53- "Remember You Young" - Thomas Rhett (+15) -- Another winner in terms of country quality. Perhaps this song could've been a little better, but I think the pleasant country pop crossover that's typical of Thomas Rhett works rather well for me in this instance.

54- "What If I Never Get Over You" - Lady Antebellum (+23) -- Let's keep this going! Maren, Thomas Rhett and now Lady Antebellum get country boosts this week. Thus this current cycle of country music is a rather nice one.

62- "Stuck in a Dream" - Lil Mosey & Gunna (+25) -- Make this go away.

63- "Nice to Meet Ya" - Nial Horan (+15) -- Yes! I was hoping this was going to be a hit. It had a solid debut, but then it kinda disappeared and I became worried that it would go away. But this really needs to become a pop hit because Nial really outdid himself.

76- "Ridin' Roads" - Dustin Lynch (+12) -- For our final country riser of the week, I'll also accept this one. For what it sets out to do, becoming a solid country song for a long ride, I think this is perfectly acceptable.


Christmas Songs:





39- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (re-entry) -- Merry Christmas everyone! OK, I apologize. I'm usually of the camp of not celebrating Christmas until Thanksgiving has come and gone, but it's rather encouraging to see Mariah back this early in the season. In fact, this is the earliest in the year that this song has re-entered, further cementing it into the modern day Christmas culture. Last Christmas season, this rose all the way to No. 3. The fact that it's back at its earliest ever time could mean that this is the year that this finally hits No. 1. And with our current top 10 not being too terribly strong, the door is wide open for Mariah to dominate along with several others. In addition to Mariah, "Jingle Bell Rock" by Bobby Helms, "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" by Brenda Lee and "A Holly Jolly Christmas" by Burl Ives also cracked the top 10 last Christmas season. So expect all of them back, and more, in the coming weeks. And as always, I'm awfully curious to see which additional Christmas songs will crossover onto the Hot 100, which is why I will be tracking them all right here until they disappear.


New Arrivals:





19- "Woah" - Lil Baby -- Nope.

56- "Heart on Ice" - Rod Wave -- I don't know where this thing came from as I've not heard of Rod Wave before, but I find it amusing that it came out in the same week that "Frozen 2" gets releasing, even though it obviously has nothing to do with the movie. Just the same icy subject matter. I was predicting this to be another worthless rap hit that came out of nowhere, but I decided to give it a shot because Rod Wave because Rod Wave has somewhat of a normal stage name and "Heart on Ice" seems like it could be a decently well thought out song. And this does have a nice intro with a decent groove that almost convinced me that this is a song worth listening to. But then Rod Wave comes out and sounds like he's trying way too hard. I'm not sure if this is officially categorized as Rap or if it's more R&B. Perhaps a combination of the two. But there are plenty of modern rap tropes snuck into this to make me annoyed. He might not be flexing in this, which is somewhat reliving, but he doesn't put a whole lot of detail into his subject matter of having his heart broken, thus meaning this still feels empty and forgettable. Kudos to it not being an offensive piece of trash like most modern rap these days, but that alone does not merit this being a good song in my books.

72- "Better Together" - Luke Combs -- In case you skimmed past my earlier comments, Luke Combs released an album that impacted the charts this week, resulting in "Even Though I'm Leaving" to rocket up to No. 11 this week. And although we're not yet in the era of country artists getting album bombs, the release of said album did cause one additional Luke Combs song to chart. Whether or not this will stick around longer than this week has yet to be seen, but this is decently tolerable song. I'm still not sure if I'm a fan of Luke Combs' voice. The super twangy style is just not really my thing and he leans heavily into that here. He also talks about plenty of cliche country things that sometime seem like prerequisites to releasing a country song, but outside those two things, this song is fairly nice. It's a stripped back piano ballad from Luke Combs. No guitars. No drums. For once this is a tone matches the lyrics and I can totally see Luke Combs fans being completely swooned by this with his passionate delivery that actually hits the emotions. I just wish it was a different singer singing it who had a more likable voice. I would also like the lyrics to dive deeper into something that felt more raw and genuine rather than it seeming like lyrics crafted in a country factory. But all in all, I'll take this.

74- "everything i wanted" - Billie Eilish -- Last week Billie's song "all the good girls go to hell" re-entered the charts and had a decent rise this week, even though it didn't quite rise high enough to qualify being on the rising songs list this week. Which is why I was slightly surprised to see a new Billie song this week that was not from her album earlier this year, which makes me curious as to what her plan is going forward with her singles. But of course I'm always down to covering a new Billie song, even though I wasn't expecting that. And as is traditional with Billie, this sees her going unconventional with the pop route, writing a song that she felt like writing and releasing, rather than writing something to a modern pop audience. For that, I once again respect her. This song definitely makes you pay close attention to what she's saying as it's rather dark and depressing. She talks about getting everything she wanted in a dream she had, but said dream would be a nightmare to those who actually care about her as she essentially committed suicide in the dream and noticed that no one really cared. So yeah, it's Billie being emo, but she does it quite well. Her mellow, toned back delivery combined with slow and sad music really packs a punch as it fits her lyrics perfectly. Is a sad, emo song like this going to catch on with the general public and be a huge radio smash? I don't think so. But I don't think Billie really cares and I'm certainly glad I treated to this.

78- "Tusa" - Karol G & Nicki Minaj -- I was going to see this is the American Nicki Minaj and the Latina Nicki Minaj, but that's not being completely fair to Karol G, who is quite talented. She just hasn't been on a song that's charted this year that doesn't have a team of untalented people with her. I don't know what she's singing about here, and I'm not really in a mood to go translate it, but her parts are rather enjoyable. Her voice is excellent and the beat is just right. It doesn't feel like its trying too hard to be an extremely heavy reggaeton song, but it's also not too slow. It finds a good balance, thus making it an enjoyable song. When Nicki comes in, she's actually trying harder to sound more like Karol G rather than it being the other way around. She even memorized a couple of lines in Spanish before flowing straight into her English. Her lyrics are very much like a Nicki Minaj song, but it wasn't distracted. And yeah, she can't hold it in too long. She does slip in a rap verse. But it's not terrible. It quickly happens without me being annoyed and immediately transitions back into Karol G afterwards. And in watching the music video, the two girls both seem to be having fun. So yeah, I'm fine with this. It's nothing to write home about, but it's perfectly acceptable.

81- "Yellow Hearts" - Ant Saunders -- When I first saw this song, I immediately assumed it was the artist who was featured on two Kanye West songs from his album bomb a couple of weeks ago. It would make sense that Kanye helped propel said artist into a successful solo career after getting attention. But with a closer look, that's not what happened here. That artist is Ant Clemons. This is Ant Saunders. Now why are we getting two Ants on the charts in one month? I have no idea. But this guy got popular thanks to TikTok, which totally makes sense because it's a dumb little song that's catchy enough for a younger audience to go crazy over. It's very simplistic musically with a few unique elements to make it stand out enough. The lyrics aren't much of anything, but they're also not offensive. I'm also not quite sure if this guy is trying to appeal to the hip-hop crowd or the pop crowd. It seems like he's going for the hip-hop crowd, but just isn't very good at it, so it feels like it'll crossover into the pop realm. This song reminded me quite a bit of Bazzi, an artist who I try to forget was ever a thing and I'm kinda mad at myself for thinking of it. But like Bazzi, this seems to have all the ingredients to just explode, which is not going to make me very happy.

83- "Jerry Sprunger" - Tory Lanez & T-Pain -- They spelled Jerry Springer wrong. And they probably did it on purpose to look cool and hip, which is why I'll boycott this even though Tory Lanez and T-Pain aren't the worst people in the hip-hop realm.

90- "Show Me Love" - Alicia Keys featuring Miguel -- Here's the surprise entry of the week. Alicia Keys on the charts? I mean, she's released plenty of music in the past years, but none of it has charted. Looking at her discography, apparently she was a part of a remix of "Calma" by Pedro Capo and Farruko, but I don't think she ever got charting credit for that. Outside that, she's hasn't charted on the Hot 100 as a lead artist since "Girl on Fire" in 2012 and as a featured act on 50 Cent's "New Day," also in 2012. So yeah, this was a surprise. Admittedly I'm not an Alicia Keys aficionado, but I've generally enjoyed the music she's put out. If this is a comeback single, it's a perfectly enjoyable little tune. I don't think it quite measures up to other Alicia Keys songs in looking through her discography, but her and Miguel mesh quite well with each other on a fairly romantic R&B song. I think there could've been a bit more to this as it's fairly simple and basic, meaning it's a bit curious that this song is the one song to get Alicia Keys back on the charts after a seven-year absence, but if we want to make Alicia Keys a thing again at the end of 2019, leading into the new decade, I'm totally fine with that. 

92- "Valentino" - 24kGoldn -- Nope. I've checked out a few new names this week from artists who I didn't recognize, but 24kGoldn? I'll pass on that.  

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