Tuesday, December 11, 2018

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - December 15, 2018

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! In this weekly post, I cover three sections. First, I give my thoughts on the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100. Second, I give my thoughts on the songs that experienced significant gains below the top 10. Third, I give my initial thoughts on our new arrivals this week. I reserve the right to switch things up in the future, but for now this is what I'm sticking with. I've followed the Billboard charts for a long time now and this is a great way for me to express my thoughts to the world. I hope you enjoy!


Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:





1- "thank u, next" - Ariana Grande (+1) -- Just like everyone who follows the Billboard charts predicted, Ariana Grande is back at No. 1 this week thanks to the arrival of her music video, which broke records on YouTube for views in the first 24-hours. Like I mentioned last week, Billboard only counts U.S. views from YouTube in its streaming formula, not all of the views, but the boost from the music video was enough to help Ariana soar to 93.8 million U.S. streams this week, boasting the highest ever weekly streaming total for a female artist, a record previously held by Taylor Swift with 84.5 million U.S. streams during the first week of "Look What You Made Me Do" in September 2017. Ariana also soars to 43,000 in sales (No. 2 this week) and 57 million in radio audience (No. 11 this week). Sales and streaming are going to plummet next week, but given the high streaming total this week, I still think she might have a chance at holding this No. 1 spot for another week or two, especially if radio keeps climbing.

2- "SICKO MODE" - Travis Scott (-1) -- Yet if I'm being objective about things, "SICKO MODE" also gained in all categories this week with 43.3 million U.S. streams, 25,000 sales and 65.7 million in radio audience. And those numbers are going to fall a lot slower than Ariana's numbers, so Travis Scott is still in good position to go back to No. 1 if Ariana tanks too hard, which is an awful prospect to think of. I still have no idea why this song has such a strong appeal. But yet we are in 2018, one of the all-time worst years in the history of the Billboard charts when it comes to popular music.

3- "Without Me" - Halsey (+1) -- If Ariana falls hard, there's also a chance that Halsey takes the top spot as "Without Me" has 32.7 million U.S. streams (up 29 percent), 50,000 in sales (up 75 percent and good enough for No. 1 on sales for a third week) and 71.7 million in radio audience (up 10 percent). So it'll be a three-headed race for the top spot in the short term. Even though I'm not madly in love with this Halsey song, I'll be cheering for either this song to jump up to No. 1 or for Ariana to hold that top spot long enough for Travis Scott to start bleeding.

4- "Happier" - Marshmello & Bastille (-1) -- The loser in all of this, when it comes to the top five anyways, seems to be "Happier" as its momentum has seemingly stalled out. And I'm not too upset. Sure, I might put it a notch above "thank u, next" and "Without Me" in terms of my personal enjoyment, but it's not like it's the greatest song by either artist. I am still glad that it's here and I do hope that it holds on to enough momentum to stick around for a while because I'm not a huge fan of most of the alternatives.

5- "High Hopes" - Panic! At the Disco (=) -- This is the song that I would really love to see break out and hit that top spot. Unfortunately it seems that the song's sales and streaming numbers aren't doing it a whole lot of favors at the moment, which is why it remains stuck at No. 5 instead of going higher. It's still got that strong radio, though, so at least the radio people have their priorities straight because this is easily the best song around at the moment. At least when it comes to the top part of the charts.

6- "Going Bad" - Meek Mill featuring Drake (new) -- Meek Mill has a new album out titled "Champions" in which he gathered together all the popular artists that he could following his release from prison this year so he could take full advantage of the fame that being in prison brought him. Because, you know, when a rapper does something awful in 2018, society doesn't punish them like they do athletes and actors. Instead there's a double standard where awful living and prison-worthy acts get celebrated by society and the rappers get rewarded with successful careers. It's beyond disgusting, especially considering the B.S. controversy surrounding the Christmas song "Baby, It's Cold Outside" right now. So no, I'm not touching Meek Mill's album this week. I'll have the track listing below in the new arrivals, but that's it. This specific song is only here because of the Drake feature. And if there's one artist I want gone this year, it has to be Drake because he's a good contender for the most overrated artist in the history of music and it's a darn shame that society worships this useless piece of trash as a god.

7- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (+7) -- On a more positive note, I was a bit shocked to see Mariah Carey jump all the way up to No. 7 this week. A friend and I had a discussion after last week's post about how high Mariah would get this year. Last Christmas season she peaked at No. 9 with this song after hitting the top 10 for the first time. My prediction after looking at our current top 10 was that it would peak at No. 5. Last week the song was at No. 14, so I figured it might jump to No. 11 or maybe even sneak into the top 10. But it jumped seven spots up to No. 7, which is fantastic. And it has all sorts of momentum right now in all categories with 28.5 million U.S. streams (up 29 percent), 15,000 sales (up 28 percent) and 30.4 million in radio audience (up 11 percent). That radio number will remain the song's handcuff, but the streaming and sales momentum looks strong enough to blow away my prediction that it will peak at No. 5. This looks like a top three hit this season as there's at least two more weeks for the song to gain in points, with those two weeks being the weeks that the song will be the strongest. Can it get to No. 1? I'm not sure. Those streaming numbers for Ariana are incredibly high right now while Travis Scott and Halsey are also doing rather well. But I think the this can still sneak into that No. 3 slot, which has me excited.

8- "ZEZE" - Kodak Black featuring Travis Scott & Offset (-1) -- It's good to see this song fall a spot this week, but I'm upset that it isn't falling faster.

9- "Drip Too Hard" - Lil Baby & Gunna (-1) -- It's good to see this song fall a spot this week, but I'm upset that it isn't falling faster.

10- "Mo Bamba" - Sheck Wes (-4) -- Well how's this for a pleasant surprise? I was worried that this might trade places with "High Hopes" this week, but instead it plummets down to No. 10. Merry Christmas to me! Now let's make it even better by kicking the song out all together. Perhaps replacing it with another Christmas song? Maybe Andy Williams or Brenda Lee? That would be great! In other good news, Maroon 5's "Girls Like You" is officially gone from the top 10. When I saw that news, I just about threw a party to honor the song's departure. Now that it's gone (and hopefully it stays that way), I can guarantee you that the world will completely forget that the song ever existed in a year or two from now. "Lucid Dreams" also exited this week, which I'm fine with. The song was pretty good, but it ran its course and didn't overstay its welcome.


Rising on the Hot 100:





16- "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year" - Andy Williams (+5) -- I will make sure to keep you up to date on every Christmas song on the charts throughout the Christmas season, even if they don't rise high enough to qualify being included in this section. Because I created those rules, so I'm allowed to break them. But seeing this song's continued momentum this week into the top 20 was a great thing. And with the bottom half of the top 10 being extremely weak at the moment, I'm thinking, or at least hoping, that this song will claim a spot in the top 10 as early as next week.

21- "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (+2) -- I would also love to see this song jump into the top 10, but it only climbed two spots this week, so I'm not feeling especially hopeful at the moment. But hey, the next two weeks on the charts are the prime week for Christmas and Christmas music, so maybe its fortunes will change!

22- "A Holly Jolly Christmas" - Burl Ives (+4) -- Can Burl Ives sneak past Brenda Lee? It's only one spot away at the moment. Personally I hope both songs will jump into the top 20 next week. I'm not concerned at which order the do so since both are great songs.

26- "Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helmes (+7) -- Two more Christmas entries into the top 30 this week, so I'm very pleased. "Jingle Bell Rock" has always been a favorite of mine. It's just so catchy and contagious and does seem to have a bit more momentum at the moment than the two songs ahead of it, so I'm curious to see what's going to happen!

29- "The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You)" - Nat King Cole (+10) -- Our second new entry into the top 30 this week! And also well deserved. Out of all the Christmas songs this week, this had the highest gain, jumping 10 spots up to No. 29? Now I don't know how many Christmas songs we're going to get in the top 10 this year, but imagine how cool it would be if we could at least get them all into the top 20?

31- "Dangerous" - Meek Mill featuring Jeremih & PnB Rock (+17) -- How dare Meek Mill interrupt my Christmas list! I did listen to this song when it debuted and while not awful, it also wasn't that great. It's only getting a one-week boost due to the album bomb. It'll drop back down next week.

34- "Last Christmas" - Wham! (+9) -- Our final Christmas riser of the week sees Wham! scoring a top 40 hit. Hopefully it'll be onto the top 30 next week! But hey, this is not the last Christmas song that I'll be talking about this week. Head down to the new arrivals section to see my thoughts on two additional Christmas songs entering the Hot 100 for the first time, that being Gene Autry's "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" at No. 36 and Dean Martin's "Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow" at No. 41. Two additional Christmas classics. What other Christmas songs have the potential to enter or re-enter in future weeks? Well, on the Holiday 100 this week, the next five songs below our current entries are "Feliz Navidad" by Jose Feliciano, "White Christmas" by Bing Crosby, "Here Comes Santa Claus (Down Santa Claus Lane)" by Gene Autry, "Sleigh Ride" by The Ronettes, and "Blue Christmas" by Elvis Presley. I also hear that there are three versions of "Baby It's Cold Outside" that are gaining strong momentum in backlash to some radio stations banning the song, with Dean Martin's version having the most momentum. So I wouldn't be surprised to see that show up.

43- "MAMA" - 6ix9ine featuring Nicki Minaj & Kanye West (+15) -- I hear that 6ix9ine released his album mid-week instead of on Friday, which is the beginning of the tracking week. That means last week his album bomb was based on only a partial week while this week is the album's first full week of tracking. That's why three of the songs had strong gains this week. I don't expect them to stick around, though. Or at least I hope they don't. That would be gross.

44- "KIKA" - 6ix9ine featuring Tory Lanez (+15) -- See previous comment.

51- "WAKA" - 6ix9ine featuring A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+20) -- See previous comment.


New Arrivals:





6- "Going Bad" - Meek Mill featuring Drake -- As I stated above, I will not be covering any songs from Meek Mill's new album this week. Read my thoughts on this above if you are curious as to why. Also, in addition to what I said above, there are a total of 26 new songs on the charts this week, half of them being from Meek Mill. I deem it not worth my time to cover that many songs. With so many album bombs that consumed so much of my time this year, I began to wonder if it was even worth doing this post each week. I thought about discontinuing this. Instead, my compromise is to pick and choose what I cover. When it comes to album bomb weeks, my thought is to completely avoid them unless it's an album that I'm actually excited about. Most songs from album bombs don't stick around, anyways, so I figure that I'll let the dust settle for a week or so and if there's any of the songs that stick around, I'll talk about them in the rising songs section in future weeks. Ever since deciding on this plan, it's relieved a lot of stress and pressure, thus making me happier about the idea of continuing forward.

20- "What's Free" - Meek Mill featuring Rick Ross & JAY-Z -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

30- "On Me" - Meek Mill featuring Cardi B -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

36- "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" - Gene Autry -- I wasn't sure what to expect with the new Christmas songs this week. In fact, I thought there would be a few more re-entries that we've seen in previous years. I was not expecting Rudolph to show, but it was certainly a pleasant surprise. I mean, who doesn't love the story of Rudolph and this ensuing song? I think when it comes to Christmas songs, this one is especially popular with the younger crowd as every kid born on Earth since the song was written in 1949 has probably grown up loving it and singing it every Christmas. Although this song showing up did make me curious as to the history of Rudolph. A quick search helped me learn that the character of Rudolph was created by Robert. L. May in 1939. It was May's brother-in-law, Johnny Marks, who adapted the story into a song, which was first sung by Harry Brannon in November 1949, right before this specific version hit No. 1 on U.S. charts during Christmas 1949. It has since been recorded by a whole heck of a lot of people, just like with every other popular Christmas song, with the other most notable version being from the Burl Ives, who recorded it for the 1964 stop-motion animation special. That same special where Ives' "A Holly Jolly Christmas," currently No. 22 on the Hot 100 this week, comes from. Which version of "Rudolph" is better? Well, I don't know. They're both good. It would be fun for Burl Ives to have two songs on the Hot 100, but it's also cool that Gene Autry's version, which first popularized the song, is the one to chart. Better question, though. Which phrases do you say as echoes?

41- "Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow" - Dean Martin -- This was another surprise Christmas entry for me. For those curious, this song was written by Sammy Cahn and Jule Style in 1945 during a heat wave in California when the two were imagining cooler conditions. It was first recorded by Vaughn Monroe. But this time, it's Dean Martin's version from his 1966 Christmas album that showed up. This makes it 49 years since Dean Martin's last entry on the charts, which almost breaks the record for longest time period between Hot 100 entries for an artist. That record is set at 57 years when Louis Prima showed up on Kid See Ghosts' "4th Dimension" earlier this year. I imagine it might now have the record when it comes to being a lead singer as opposed to just being featured 57 years later on a random song. But Billboard didn't report that, so I don't know. In regards to "Let It Snow," this is more of a winter song than a Christmas song and thus I have a love/hate relationship with the idea of wanting to let it snow. I don't like the cold and I'm fine with warm Christmases. But hey, the song is certainly a classic as it's the first song (or one of the first) that will come to your mind when it does start snowing and you are one that's happy about it. That random tangent aside, the song itself is great. It puts warm images in your mind as the singer talks about cuddling up by the fire during the bitter storm. And of course Dean Martin brings such a warm, friendly charisma to the song. So you'd have to be a Grinch to hate the song.

46- "Pure Cocaine" - Lil Baby -- While I'm in the mood of skipping albums, I will also be avoiding Lil Baby's new album. Given that he's leading with the song "Pure Cocaine" as the top new arrival, can you really blame me?

54- "24/7" - Meek Mill featuring Ella Mai -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

55- "Intro" - Meek Mill -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

57- "Respect the Game" - Meek Mill -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

60- "Good Form" - Nicki Minaj featuring Lil Wayne -- Eh. There's a lot of awful hip-hop this week. Most weeks I would get a non-album bomb song like this over with. But I don't feel like it. These two rappers are trash anyways, especially when they team up.

61- "Trauma" - Meek Mill -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

62- "Time" - Lil Baby featuring Meek Mill -- A Lil Baby and Meek Mill crossover on a week where both get an album bomb? It's almost like it was planned that way. But no, I'm not covering this, either.

63- "Nuketown" - Ski Mask the Slump God featurng Juice WRLD -- Ski Mask the Slump God? With a rap name like that, the dude is begging me to ignore him. So I will.

64- "Calling My Spirit" - Kodak Black -- I don't care about Kodak Black.

66- "Ready" - Lil Baby featuring Gunna -- I'm not covering Lil Baby's album. But speaking of him and Gunna, didn't they just release a collaborative album together? So what's the point of this song existing?

67- "Nothing Breaks Like a Heart" - Mark Ronson featuring Miley Cyrus -- Buried in all the muck this week is actually a song worth covering. Surprise, right? I really hope this doesn't get lost in the mix because this is a solid effort from both Mark Ronson and Miley. In regards to Miley, she's a singer who shocked me last year with an album that was really good as she seems to have left her crazy life behind her while becoming an elegant woman writing good pop music. Thus I was curious as to where she'd go next with her music and a team-up with Mark Ronson is a great place. Lyrically this song is another breakup song that's not super unique. The lovers were once drunk in love, but now they're not and nothing can save them. What makes the song work, though, is Miley's voice as she powers through the lyrics with fire and emotion. Regardless of what I've thought of Miley over the years, what has remained consistent is that she's always had talent and potential. It's just a matter what she did with that and I'm glad that she's using it in the right ways now by creating solid pop songs like this. What also makes the song work is Mark Ronson's production. If you forgot who Mark Ronson is, he's the actual lead act in "Uptown Funk" as he provided the platform for Bruno Mars to explode with one of the biggest hits ever. And he again constructs a great song musically in "Nothing Breaks Like a Heart." There's a variety of instruments here from great use of various strings (violin, viola, bass, cello) to the implementation of the guitar, drums and piano. On Genius, Mark Ronson is credited for playing the piano. When they performed the song on the Graham Norton Show, he strummed along on the guitar. So maybe he did a little bit of both on the actual recording? Either way, good work for both of these artists and anyone else who contributed here to the music.

70- "Championships" - Meek Mill -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

72- "Tic Tac Toe" - Meek Mill featuring Kodak Black -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

73- "Almost Slipped" - Meek Mill -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

77- "Splash Warning" - Meek Mill featuring Future, Roddy Ricch & Young Thug -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

78- "Pay You Back" - Meek Mill featuring 21 Savage -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

81- "Foot Fungus" - Ski Mask the Slump God -- "Foot Fungus" by Ski Mask the Slump God. That is the most disgusting sounding title/artist combo that I've heard.

82- "Crush a Lot" - Lil Baby -- I'm not covering Lil Baby's album bomb.

85- "Oodles O' Noodles Babies" - Meek Mill -- I will not be covering Meek Mill's new album this week. Read above to learn why.

91- "Global" - Lil Baby -- I'm not covering Lil Baby's album bomb.

98- "Word on the Street" - Lil Baby -- I'm not covering Lil Baby's album bomb.

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