Wednesday, August 21, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - August 24, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "bad guy" - Billie Eilish (+1) -- Oh my goodness, this is the happiest week of my life! Not only is the 19-week run of "Old Town Road" over, but it gets replaced with "bad guy" by Billie Eilish! It was aided a bit by the arrival of a vertical video, as well as a cassette single available only through Billie's official website, but if you call that cheating then you have to disqualify the entire run of "Old Town Road" because that song has like five different versions of the song and somewhere around 10 different videos all combining together for the same numbers. If this new vertical video and cassette single did have an effect this week, it really just kept it ahead of "Señorita," as "Old Town Road" fell below both songs. Without the continued aid of all the remixes and videos, the floor is finally falling out from under "Old Town Road." Even though it's still No. 1 on streaming and sales, those numbers continue to drop and the radio is all the way down at No. 28 this week whereas "bad guy" and "Señorita" both have very strong radio that will keep them around for a while. So this was bound to happen.

Outside of simply being excited that "Old Town Road" has finally been dethroned, I'm also super happy for Billie. I've loved her music ever since hearing "lovely" last year. I've been waiting for her big break and I'm happy that it happened with "bad guy." When I first listened to this song, I had a feeling that this could be it because it's such a fun, upbeat song. I'm glad I was right. Other accomplishments for "bad guy" and Billie, "bad guy" sets the record for the longest time spent at the runner-up spot before finally taking the top spot as the song spent nine weeks at No. 2. Previously said record was held by three different songs each spending eight weeks at No. 2, "Starboy" by The Weeknd, "Sorry" by Justin Bieber and "The Way You Move" by Outkast featuring Sleepy Brown. "bad guy" is also the first song to top the alternatives songs chart to go No. 1 on the Hot 100 since "Royals" by Lorde in 2013. Speaking of Lorde, Billie (17) is also the youngest to be No. 1 since Lorde (16). Finally, Billie is the first person born in the 2000s to be No. 1 on the Hot 100, which is kinda crazy for me to think about. People born in the 2000s are already starting to have No. 1 hits on the Hot 100. It's one of those moments where I begin to feel old. Billie was six when I graduated high school.

2- "Señorita" - Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello (+1) -- How long will "bad guy" be No. 1? I'm not really sure. "Señorita" boasts 36.2 million in streaming (up 4 percent), 23,000 in sales (up 4 percent) and 96.1 million in radio audience (up 7 percent). Meanwhile, "bad guy" has 39.1 million in streaming (up 10 percent), 20,000 in sales (up 11 percent) and 93 million in radio audience (down 3 percent). So "bad guy" is really only leading in streaming. And given that its been around on the charts for longer, I think "Señorita" is naturally going to have more staying power while "bad guy" is going to start dropping as its been around for a bit of time now. Could "Señorita" be No. 1 as soon as next week? I think that's quite possible? And I'm not upset. "bad guy" got to No. 1. That's good enough for me. I like it better when we cycle through our top hits quicker.

3- "Old Town Road" - Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus (-2) -- "Ding dong, the witch is dead! The wicked witch, she lost her head!" That's all I have to say. Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus rode that top spot until they couldn't no more. OK, I'll see myself out.

4- "Truth Hurts" - Lizzo (=) -- While "bad guy" and "Señorita" were strong enough to get past "Old Town Road," "Truth Hurts" didn't quite make it. But I'm sure it will eventually and we'll have our top three of "bad guy," "Señorita" and "Truth Hurts" reigning.

5- "Talk" - Khalid (=) -- Thanks to the strong radio play, "Talk" is managing to be quite stubborn right now by refusing to fall out of the top five. Either that or the songs below aren't strong enough to cause there to be a huge shift. But I still don't think this will be here for much longer as its sales and streaming continues to evaporate.

6- "No Guidance" - Chris Brown featuring Drake (=) -- I hope that "No Guidance" doesn't get a spot in the top five. If it got stuck here at No. 6, I would consider that a win. But just because I said that, it'll probably swap spots with "Talk" next week.

7- "I Don't Care" - Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (=) -- "I Don't Care" is also being quite stubborn. But I guess we just don't have anything to replace it with.

8- "Ran$om" - Lil Tecca (+2) -- I'm not happy that this rose two spots, helped again by huge streaming as it shoots up to No. 2 on the streaming charts with way more streaming that it ever deserved. The good thing is that it has nothing in terms of sales or radio, so its weeks in the top 10 are numbered, I think.

9- "Goodbyes" - Post Malone featuring Young Thug (=) -- This still baffles me by not being able to gain traction. In reality it lost a spot this week, succombing to "Ran$om." It's just that Ariana's new song that the world has already forgotten about fell off following its debut last week.

10- "If I Can't Have You" - Shawn Mendes (+1) -- Since there's surprisingly nothing that's ready to rise into the top 10, "If I Can't Have You" spends another week in the region as the top of the charts are really kinda stagnant at the moment. Outside a few cockroaches, I'm fine with that. There's a lot of worthy songs in the top 10 right now and I have no problem with a double dosage of Shawn Mendes.


Rising on the Hot 100:





14- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (+3) -- I like the fact that this is slowly rising up the charts. If it can manage to maintain enough consistency, I would love to see this take a place in the top 10. Maybe we can kick out "Ran$om" and put this in. Realistically, though, if it can manage to not get stuck at this spot, it'll probably take the place of that second Shawn Mendes song.

20- "Beautiful People" - Ed Sheeran & Khalid (+2) -- I don't know how much potential this song has, but it has been remarkable consistent in the past weeks in maintaining its positioning. I'm not sure how I would feel it if hit top 10.

34- "Baby" - Lil Baby & DaBaby (+11) -- Gross. Make this one go away.

46- "One Thing Right" - Marshmello & Kane Brown (+16) -- Does this really have that much cross genre appeal to make it a thing? Are country people listening to a Marshmello infused Kane Brown song? Are EDM fans listening to listening to something with a lot of Kane Brown? I don't. This song's success confuses me.

47- "Trampoline" - SHAED (+5) -- I'm happy to see "Trampoline" break the top 50. I imagine its rise will continue to be a slow one, but it's great that the song is slowly catching on with people around the country. I've done my best to spread the word with this song, but my personal influence can only go so far.

49- "Queen of Mean" - Sarah Jeffery (+18) -- This is surprising. I thought last week was our "Descendants 3" week for the charts, but last week was perhaps a partial week for this song in terms of tracking, with this week being the first full week? That's my current guess. Because not only does this song jump 18 spots, but we have a second song from "Descendants 3" in the new arrivals this week. And I'll say here a summary of what I said last week. If you're really taking a song from a Disney Channel movie seriously and deeply analyzing all the lyrical and musical components, you should just stop. It's a song from a Disney Channel movie. And on that level its a fun song. And I'm a bit amused that it's now a top 50 hit. I don't imagine it will have a long chart run, but it's owning it on the DisneyMusicVEVO channel on YouTube as it has 72 million views since being uploaded on August 2, which completely annihilates everything from "The Lion King" on that channel and most things from "Aladdin." So the "Descendants 3" influence is a lot stronger than you were probably thinking if you're just a casual outside observer.

53- "Only Human" - Jonas Brothers (+10) -- The Jonas Brothers are probably excited that they have another single that's catching on. At least it's this one and not "Cool," but this is still not even close to the level of "Sucker."

59- "Gold Roses" - Rick Ross featuring Drake (+14) -- Rick Ross has a new album that I think impacted the charts this week. Although he got no new hits from it to chart this week, so I laugh in his face. All that it did was give a boost to this song that I don't care enough to actually listen to.

65- "Time" - NF (+14) -- Thanks to all of the songs from Drake completely evaporating from the charts this week, we have a lot of risers here in the bottom half of the charts. I suppose there's worse things than NF, but I'll still pass on this.

75- "Love You Too Late" - Cole Swindell (+19) -- Generic country song gets a rise after debuting last week.

78- "Daddy" - Blueface & Rich the Kid (+20) -- Excuse me while a throw up.

79- "Ballin'" - Mustard featuring Roddy Ricch (+10) -- At least it only rose 10 spots in the absence of Drake this week?

80- "We Were" - Keith Urban (+10) -- Eh. Not Keith's best. It's not a song I see ever being a highlight at a Keith Urban show, but I won't be upset if it does well.

82- "Prayed for You" - Matt Stell (+17) -- Mostly inoffensive and almost a really good wedding reception song, but it still lacks a bit of the depth that I would like it to have. But I'll still take it over most of the country that gets played today on country radio.

85- "What Happens in a Small Town" - Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Eli (+12) -- This one I'll take a pass on. Play the previous two country songs I just talked about and not this one.


New Arrivals:





11- "Hot Girl Summer" - Megan Thee Stallion, Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign -- I haven't listened to this, but I see that title combined with those three artists and I feel I already have listened to it. And I already don't like it. So why waste my time? 

64- "Mac 10" - Trippie Redd featuring Lil Baby & Lil Duke -- Lil Duke? Why does every new rapper think its cool to start their name with either Lil or Young? If we have to have dumb rap names, can't we be more creative? Not that I would've listened to this anyway given the other two rappers on this track, but I just had to complain at that.

81- "Small Talk" - Katy Perry -- So what's Katy Perry doing with her life these days? Certainly not writing music that people are remembering. Her most recent single, "Never Really Over," was released in mid-June, yet is currently on life support as it falls down to No. 50 this week and will be off the Hot 100 before too long. Although it's really funny because in my brain I started this off with that comment, then I listened to this song and it started with "Isn't it strange, they used to know me. All the highs and lows and in betweens and now you see me and just say, 'Hey.'" Yeah, pretty much. It's kinda crazy that we live in a world where both Katy Perry and Taylor Swift are doing their best to write music and release new singles, yet neither are able to gain any traction. I guess that's what you get when most people don't like your previous albums. You have to do more than just write average music in order to make a comeback in the public's eye. Right now I'm listening to a bunch of old Katy singles and her music used to have such a strong bombast to them. She had a powerful presence in the pop world with songs that stuck in your head, even if you didn't like them. Specifically I'm on the "Teenage Dream" album going through those singles and those songs were impressive. Then I go back to listening to "Never Really Over" and "Small Talk" and I can tell why Katy is becoming a has been. "Small Talk" even has a segment towards the end where the lyrics are "Blah, blah, blah, blah" for several stances. And yeah, that section is pretty much what I hear for this whole song. It's not particularly bad. But it's a song that I'm not going to ever remember. And for me that's disappointing because I want Katy to be back.

84- "Night Falls" - Dove Cameron, Sofia Carson, Booboo Stewart, Cameron Boyce, Thomas Doherty, China Anne McClain & Dylan Playfair -- This, ladies and gentlemen, is the cast of "Descendants 3." Well, many of them. On the YouTube thing, it has 53 million views since being uploaded on August 2. So not quite as strong as "Queen of Mean," but it still shows how big the "Descendants" brand is. And this song, well, let's just saying that I'm gaining a soft spot for this "Descendants" stuff. I watched the music video for this and was laughing at the hilariously cheesy moments. But laughing in a good way. The heroes were getting corned by the knights and then one of them seemed to put a spell on the knights and the all started dancing in the same manner as the heroes were. In comparing "Queen of Mean" to "Night Falls," my very educated guess is that "Queen of Mean" happens towards the beginning where Princess Audrey is accepting the darkness boiling up within in her instead of trying to pretend to be good, while "Night Falls" seems like a battle song that happens much later in the film. I've listened to "Queen of Mean" a lot more in the last week than I care to admit. It's the much catchier song that parallels "Let It Go" in many ways. "Night Falls" is an entertaining battle song that sees a good mix from these talented young singers, but it's not quite as catchy and infectious. But maybe I just need to give it a week or so.

86- "On Chill" - Wale featuring Jeremih -- Nope. Never cared about these two. But it's probably slightly less offensive than stuff from Trippie Redd, Lil Tjay or DaBaby.

87- "Snake Skin" - Trippie Redd -- Two Trippie Redd songs? Did he release an album for me to ignore? I don't care enough to look that up.

90- "Buy My Own Drinks" - Runaway June -- Here's my "What in the world is this?" song of the week. As it turns out, Runaway June is a female country group consisting of John Wayne's granddaughter Jennifer Wayne as well as Naomi Cooke and Hannah Mulholland. This is the group's first Hot 100 entry following the release of their debut studio album "Blue Roses" in June of this year. They've been active since 2015 and are currently touring with Carrie Underwood and Maddie & Tae on Carrie's Cry Pretty Tour 360. So that's a bit of background. Having this song chart in the midst of that tour certainly helps them. I will say that I've always had a softer spot for female country singers and that holds true again here. These girls have a solid chemistry together on this song to go along with great voices that fit the genre well. Maybe it's just that I'm a guy, but I think female singers fit the genre a lot better than guys do. As far as the lyrics go, I was going to get a bit upset that this is one of those "shove it in the face of the guys" songs where the girls don't need any men in their lives. Because heaven forbid you allow a guy to buy you a drink as if that's some sort of weak sign of submission to the male race. But a closer examination shows that that's not really what they're really going for here. This is a post break-up song where the girl is trying to un-fall apart, as the lyrics say. She tries calling friends and go have a good time, but when no one is around, she decides that she can be her own boyfriend. Buy her own drinks, pay her own tab, have fun by herself, call herself a cab at the end of the day. Not let loneliness prevent her from having a good time. That I think is much better and certainly quite relatable. I can see why people are connecting with this song. And if I was feeling rich, I think it would be fun to go see this group on tour with Carrie in Salt Lake on September 14. I've actually been to a Carrie concert as she performed at Stadium of Fire a few years back when I had tickets. She's good at putting on a show and I think this Runaway June group would do good at complimenting her.

92- "F.N" - Lil Tjay -- Let's not make this guy a thing. I don't even know how I'm supposed to interpret a title like that, anyways. Nor do I care enough to look up what it means.

93- "Baby Sitter" - DaBaby featuring Offset -- Is every DaBaby song going to have a baby reference in it?

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