Tuesday, September 17, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - September 21, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Truth Hurts" - Lizzo (=) -- Fending off a surge of Post Malone this week, thanks to Post's new album impacting the charts, is Lizzo with "Truth Hurts" as the song gets its third week at No. 1. After "Old Town Road" broke the record with 19 weeks at No. 1, we had a bit of instability at the top, which I personally prefer. But now it appears that "Truth Hurts" has helped the charts gain a little more stability. Although honestly I don't know how strong of a No. 1 this is. While it continues to slowly climb on the radio, rising 6 percent to 110.8 million audience impressions, narrowly behind "Señorita" on that level, which rose 2 percent to 111.9 million audience impressions, "Truth Hurts" plummeted on both sales and streaming, falling 19 percent and 16 percent respectively. Again, I think part of this is due to it gaining a huge boost last two weeks ago thanks to the VMAs, and thus it continues to float back down to Earth to where it was before that. Now I think it's steady enough across the board to stay in the top five somewhere for a good portion of the fall season, but if something comes around with a lot more momentum, I think "Truth Hurts" in primed to stumble. But the thing is, what is that song? Post Malone wasn't quite strong enough this week to pull off the feat with either of his songs, so we'll have to see what the charts look like in a week or two once the dust settles from the album to see what is actually gaining.

2- "Señorita" - Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello (=) -- I'd say that "Señorita" is still a contender to go back to No. 1, but although it's ahead in radio for the time being, I don't know what its sales and streaming numbers are to compare them to "Truth Hurts" and what the percent change is. I rely on Billboard's weekly article for that and they didn't report that. I could look at the individual sales and streaming charts on Billboard, but when I opened them this week, I got a message saying, "Sorry, only for Billboard Pros!" I don't know what that's all about. But apparently Billboard's site is blocking some of their individual charts in order to get more people to sign up for their $12 a month subscription. Sorry, I'm not signing up for that. I guess that means we get to find out together what happens with "Truth Hurts" vs. "Señorita" instead of me pulling out my crystal ball out and examining the numbers and chart positioning.

3- "Goodbyes" - Post Malone featuring Young Thug (+7) -- With the boost of the album, "Goodbyes" launches up to No. 3 on the Hot 100. Before the album dropped, this song was in danger of falling out of the top 10, so I have no idea what the future holds for this song. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop out of the top 10 next week once the album bomb wears off. But it does appear that the streaming numbers for the album continue to do well in the coming weeks. And I'm basing that off the fact that most of the songs are still towards the top of the Apple Music charts, a subscription I am signed up for. So it's possible that the album holds well enough to give this song a bit of a second wind instead of pulling a vanishing act like all of Taylor Swift's songs.

4- "Circles" - Post Malone (+3) -- Like with "Goodbyes," I have no idea what this song is going to do. It only debuted at No. 7, which was lower than I thought, and now it rises just three spots with the album bomb, with "Goodbyes" getting the bigger boost. I wouldn't be complaining if it stuck around. It's fine. And if it satisfies the hip-hop audience, I'd rather have a song like this in the top 10 than something else, even though this specific song isn't hip-hop at all.

5- "bad guy" - Billie Eilish (-2) -- While "Truth Hurts" and "Señorita" survived the Post Malone invasion, "bad guy" wasn't so lucky as it gets pushed down to No. 5. And although I don't know what Post Malone's songs are going to do next week, I can see "bad guy" at least jumping ahead of them and back to its No. 3 spot.

6- "Ran$om" - Lil Tecca (-2) -- What I find impressive this week is that, even though Post Malone has a huge list of new songs that are all getting excellent streaming numbers thanks to the album, it's "Ran$om" that remains No. 1 on streaming this week. So for some reason a lot of people are still streaming this song. Either that or a lot of streaming services are forcing it on everyone who listens to hip-hop, which happens on services like Pandora or Spotify where people choose to listen to playlists of songs that are similar to what they like. On Apple Music, though, "Ran$om" is No. 17 right now. Post Malone's "Enemies" is currently No. 1. So it's not Apple Music's fault that "Ran$om" is getting a whole ton of streaming. Even though I say it's impressive that "Ran$om" kept at No. 1 on streaming, it's certainly not something I'm happy about. So whichever services are at fault here, I would love for them to stop.

7- "No Guidance" - Chris Brown featuring Drake (-1) -- I suppose it's a good week for "No Guidance." Two Post Malone songs jump ahead of it and yet it only falls one spot. While I'm still not happy that this song is around, at least it's not getting enough positive momentum to get much higher than what it currently is at.

8- "Take What You Want" - Post Malone featuring Ozzy Osbourne & Travis Scott (new) -- Full disclosure. I'm not covering the Post Malone album bomb. I'll remind you of that again and get into more detail as to why in my rising songs section, but I will cover this one simply out of curiosity as to what the heck a Post Malone and Ozzy Osbourne collaboration sounds like. That opinion will be below. And I guess enough people had that same thought to make this song debut in the top 10 as the highest charting new Post Malone song this week. Luckily my Facebook friends are all smart enough to know that Post Malone didn't make Ozzy Osbourne famous, so I haven't had to deal with any of that. But I have had people on the opposite side pushing back against that silly notion, which has spawned fun memes that have amused me. Because, yeah, Ozzy Osbourne has been active in the music industry since 1967. The first Black Sabbath album was released in 1970 and Ozzy has been going strong ever since. His last solo album was in 2010, while Black Sabbath then released another album in 2013. Although Ozzy has never really been a mainstream artist for obvious reasons if you're familiar with him, not on his own or with Black Sabbath. So he's only ever had one top 10 entry and that was a collaboration with Lita Ford in the late 80's called "Close My Eyes Forever," which peaked at No. 8. Because of that, what Post has done for Ozzy is help him break the record for the longest time in between top 10 entries at 30 years and three months, narrowly beating Dobie Gray, who had a break of 30 years and two months. Dobie Gray hit the top 10 with "Drift Away" in 1973 and then again with Uncle Cracker's version of the song in 2003 that listed him as a featured credit.

9- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (+2) -- I've been waiting for this song to hit the top 10, but I thought I would have to wait another week with the huge influx of Post Malone songs. But impressively the song managed to get here despite Post Malone. Instead of Lewis getting blocked, "Old Town Road," "Talk" and "I Don't Care" were all momentarily kicked out of the top 10. So even though it's only a two spot jump, Lewis jumped ahead of all three of them with "Someone You Loved," which puts the song in prime position depending on what happens to Post Malone next week. It could jump all the way up to No. 6 if all the Post Malone songs dropped out and no new songs debuted ahead of it. "Don't Call My Angel" by Ariana, Miley and Lana, from the upcoming "Charlie's Angel's" movie, and "Graveyard" by Halsey seem to be the only candidates for a big debut next week. We'll see how big those end up being.

10- "Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)" - Post Malone & Swae Lee (+4) -- Did you think that we would be getting one more week from "Sunflower"? Well, I did after seeing it at No. 14 last week while also noticing it was part of the album. But prior to noticing that I wouldn't have guessed it. Considering the song is in its 47th week on the Hot 100 and it's still here in the top section of the charts, it's been quite the remarkable run for this song, which is why it's at least going to be in the top three in any year-end list of most popular Billboard Hot 100 songs. In fact, the album boosting the song into the top 10 for one more week gives it week No. 33 in the top 10, which puts it in a three-way tie with "Shape of You" and "Girls Like You" for the longest run ever in the top 10. If it somehow can miraculously get one more week, it will have the record all to itself. But I think this is the song's final week for good now.


Rising on the Hot 100:





14- "Panini" - Lil Nas X (+15) -- I'm pretty sure this song got a huge boost this week because Lil Nas X released a remix with DaBaby. Because, you know, that's what Lil Nas X does. He releases remixes of his songs in order to boost their sales and streaming. Well, that and the music video above got released. He's trying desperately to get this song to be his second big hit, but "Panini" just doesn't have the same viral energy as "Old Town Road." So even if he gets the song into the top 10, I don't think "Panini" is ever going to be the viral earworm that "Old Town Road" was. Lil Nas X is the very definition of a one-hit wonder because it's not him that became hugely popular. It's his song that did. And even though this follow-up single has benefited a little bit from "Old Town Road," just like PSY had a bit of success with "Gentleman" after "Gangnum Style," Lil Nas X is going to disappear into irrelevancy before too long and we'll all look back at this time in history with embarrassment that we ever let him get center stage.

17- "Wow." - Post Malone (+10) -- The only other song that qualified for the rising songs section this week is "Wow." by Post Malone, which got a 10-spot boost due to the album. And this means that next week is again going to see a large percentage of the Hot 100 show up here. Then we might be able to get back to normal.


New Arrivals:





8- "Take What You Want" - Post Malone featuring Ozzy Osbourne & Travis Scott -- As I mentioned above, the only reason I'm covering this song is because I'm deathly curious as to what an Ozzy Osbourne and Post Malone collaboration sounds like. I'm not covering the rest of the album and I'll get to that in a second. But when I first saw this, I did a huge double take. Ozzy Osbourne? It's strange seeing him on the charts today, especially with Post Malone. Now apparently this happened because Ozzy wanted it to happen, which makes this an even stranger story. Now Post sometimes pretends he's a rock star. He even wrote a song about it, which I still think is stupid. But he's not. And none of his songs I've covered have come even close to being rock. But this is now his first actual time, as far as I know, to actually make a rock song. Because when Ozzy comes calling, wanting to collaborate, you do your best to make it work. And when compared to Post's normal style, this is quite unique and he does an alright job trying to be a rock star. There's some decent guitar and drum moments in this song, with a pretty sweet guitar solo from Andrew Watt, a frequent collaborator with Post who made this song happen. But I don't know, this song just doesn't have the energy and power it needs to make it work. It's good when you compare it to other Post songs, but when you compare it to other rock songs, especially if you go back and listen to some metal or heavy metal, this song feels more like a fake replica of a genre that can be pretty epic. And when you go listen to music from Black Sabbath or Ozzy's solo career, there's no way this even shines a candle to that. And I'm not even a Ozzy aficionado. But it doesn't take much to discern the difference in quality between the two parties. Thus having Ozzy on this song, even if it was his idea, feels more like a gimmick than anything. And lyrically, as I said last week when talking about "Circles," Post writes two types of songs. Flexing and sad break-up songs. This is the latter. So even though it's disguised as a rock song, it's almost the same exact song as "Circles" and "Goodbyes."

15- "Hollywood's Bleeding" - Post Malone -- As for the rest of this album, I'm not going to touch it. Now I fully realize that there could be good songs here. Or at least songs that are tolerable when compared to Post's past songs, especially considering the fact that I think "Goodbyes," "Circles" and "Take What You Want" are fine songs. But last year broke me when it came to these frequent album bombs. They take so much time and effort to do, yet I don't feel like anyone even cares. So I stopped covering album bombs. And that led me to be even more selective with songs I cover in general since there's such a huge flood of awful rap music that constantly drowns the Hot 100. So far I've received no complaints. Now occasionally an album bomb will come along that I am interested in, like Taylor Swift two weeks ago. But my desire to cover Post Malone is just not there. However, I'll make you a deal. If you do love Post Malone and there's a song or two that you think I'll like or you want my opinion on, let me know and I'll oblige. Experience tells me that won't happen, but I'm to there being a first for everything. Also, if there's future singles that come from this crop of new songs, I'll cover them when they get here. But for now, I'm taking it easy this week.

16- "Enemies" - Post Malone featuring DaBaby -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

18- "Saint-Tropez" - Post Malone -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

20- "Die for Me" - Post Malone featuring Future & Halsey -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

22- "On the Road" - Post Malone featuring Meek Mill & Lil Baby -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

29- "A Thousand Bad Times" - Post Malone -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

33- "I'm Gonna Be" - Post Malone -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

34- "Staring at the Sun" - Post Malone featuring SZA -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

37- "Allergic" - Post Malone -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

52- "Myself" - Post Malone -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

53- "I Know" - Post Malone -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

56- "Liar" - Camila Cabello -- There's a lot of Post Malone I'm skipping. But I will cover the pair of new Camila Cabello songs. Granted, when it comes to Camila, there's not a whole lot of variety that she brings to the table. She has a very specific style of sultry pop. She's always taking advantage of her good looks with her lyrics and her music videos, and she has a good enough voice to pull it off. Her songs might be empty and mostly fluff, but I don't know. I'm a lot more forgiving of pop music. This song isn't special by any means, but it's Camila doing what she does best and I she delivers. It's a fun, upbeat pop song that dips its toes a bit into the Latino vibe, making it fun enough to dance to. Even though I never liked Fifth Harmony, I've always seemed to enjoy Camila ever since she went solo. She's able to be herself. The song is supposed to be a bit sensual as she says she's tried to stay away from this guy, but the way he moves and talks keeps her coming back for me. The song treads the line of what's appropriate, but she doesn't sprint across it like Fifth Harmony always did. Thus there's a lot of teasing, but no dirty lyrics and the balance she finds there is fine with him. Long story short, this is essentially "Señorita" 2.0. And I'm fine with that.

58- "Internet" - Post Malone -- I'm not covering Post Malone's album bomb. See comment above as to why.

60- "Shameless" - Camila Cabello -- Given that we have two Camila songs this week, I was ready to say let's cut and paste from the last song and not spend as much time. Because most Camila songs are the same, right? Well, she has me eating my words here a bit because, while this still is very much in Camila's lane, there is a significant difference between this song and the last. While "Liar" has her trying to get away from this guy and failing to do so, "Shameless" has her desperately wanting this guy, but being unable to get him. While "Liar" is upbeat and playful, "Shameless" has a feeling of dramatic desperation. It almost feels like a Sia song. Or Camila trying to be Sia, anyways. Sia has a much more powerful voice, allowing her to beautifully pull off an emotional song like this. When Camila goes for that in this song, she sounds a lot more strained, like she doesn't have the vocal prowess to knock it out of the park. But it's a solid double hit. And even though I can feel the emotion in her voice, the lyrics are about her shamelessly wanting this guy she can't have and that sentiment doesn't quite cut as deep. She sounds like she's in pain, but it feels a bit hollow. And the music the music isn't a dance number like most of her music. But when it comes to an emotional tune, it feels like it has a bit more static than it should. But all this is me being a bit nit-picky. I have "Chandelier" in my head as I listen to this, and thus I'm coming to terms with myself as to why this doesn't come near that, but for Camila standards this is pretty solid. Kudos to her for getting two songs out there that are different enough from each other to make it seem like I didn't cover the same song twice. 

68- "Self Control" - YoungBoy Never Broke Again -- This is not part of Post Malone's album, YoungBoy is one of those annoying rappers with an annoying name. I've never cared for him. All his songs are the same, anyways.  

82- "homecoming queen?" - Kelsea Ballerini -- We finish the week off with some Kelsea Ballerini. Because I'm certainly not covering the next song. Unlike Kelsea's last song that charted and performed decently, that being "Miss Me More," this is a new song. "Miss Me More" was from her 2017 album "Unapologetically," which I enjoyed. But if "homecoming queen?" is a sign that a new Kelsea album is come, I'm on board with that. And if this song is a taste of what we're getting, I'm excited because this song is excellent. This is the style of country, or country pop, that I enjoy immensely. This is a very stripped back, slow song where Kelsea dives into the emotions behind a homecoming queen who, despite looking perfect on the surface, is a lot more broken and damaged inside. Now the voice in the song has Kelsea talking to a second person. Like Kelsea is the bystander who is talking to the homecoming queen, asking her to show more emotion and let people in how she's really doing. She doesn't always have to put on the act, in fact it can be healthy to show how she's really feeling. I feel there's a lot of power in the lyrics, "What if I told you the world wouldn't end? If you started showing what's under your skin. What if I you let 'em all in on the lie? Even the homecoming queen cries." I also like how the song ends with a question. "Hey, homecoming queen, why do you lie? When somebody's mean, where do you hide?" Letting the song hang like that allows the emotion to sink in. The only slightly negative thing that crossed my mind is that I think the second half could've expounded a bit more as Kelsea essentially just repeats the first half of the song again, but overall I still really enjoyed this song. And even though Kelsea is talking to another person, I think it fits quite well if that second person was herself. But either way, I think this song successfully portrays the emotion that, even though people look perfect on the outside, doesn't mean they are perfect on the inside. You never know who is secretly struggling with life. And I even think that sentiment is expressed well in the title, as it's in lowercase with a question mark at the end. That's some subtle brilliance there.

87- "223's" - YNW Melly & 9lokknine -- YNW Melly released the song "Mixed Personality" with Kanye West earlier this year. That collaboration also caused a previous song of his, "Murder on My Mind," to chart as well. I wasn't impressed. Seeing him return with another new guy whose name I don't even know how to pronounce (is the 9 supposed to be a B?), makes me have zero interest in this. Especially since I'm pretty sure 223 is referring to a type of gun. I don't do songs about shooting people.

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