Thursday, September 26, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - September 28, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Truth Hurts" - Lizzo (=) -- With its fourth week at No. 1, "Truth Hurts" is now the longest running No. 1 hit by a female rapper without another artist attached to the song. And with so many qualifiers in that sentence, that stat probably means close to nothing. Especially since I don't even consider "Truth Hurts" a rap song. But it is what it is. If that record impresses you, then by all means. I think the bigger issue here is the lack of success that female rappers have on the charts making it so that wasn't a hard bar to jump over since the previous record was held by Cardi B's "Bodak Yellow" with just three weeks at No. 1. Lizzo reigns this week with help from radio, where "Truth Hurts" takes over as the No. 1 song, jumping "Señorita." However, "Truth Hurts" crashes down 12 percent in sales to 27,000 downloads sold, while only increasing 1 percent in streaming to 29.4 million U.S. streams. So outside the radio, it's not super strong. I don't know when the song is going to give up the throne given the competition right now isn't super strong right now, but I don't imagine the reign will last too much longer.

2- "Señorita" - Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello (=) -- I would still say that "Señorita" has at least an outside chance of going back to No. 1, but Gary Trust, who writes Billboard's weekly article that I read for my information, must've got bored of reporting those margins because there were no reports of what the numbers are, so my saying "Señorita" has a chance is just a random stab in the dark with no current evidence to back it up. Perhaps it's also falling at a similar rate.

3- "bad guy" - Billie Eilish (+2) -- Billie got bullied down by Post Malone last week, but she's now back up where she belongs, right there in the top three. Give this song a couple of weeks and it'll officially be the No. 2 most popular song of the year based on my personal tracking, passing "Sunflower" and only being behind "Old Town Road." That's extremely impressive and makes me very happy for Billie!

4- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (+5) -- Oh hey there! This is a huge surprise. It took this song forever to finally hit the top 10, which made me think that it'll probably be the type of song that hangs out in the bottom half of the top 10 for a few weeks without getting much higher. That's what happened with "Sweet but Psycho" this year. Turns out the timing here was fantastic. I had a feeling it would jump up to No. 6 or No. 7 with all the Post Malone songs set to fall, but I had no idea that it would actually leapfrog both "Ran$om" and "No Guidance. I'm certainly happy about this. It makes for quite the excellent top four. This song has been a worldwide hit for quite some time, going top five and top 10 in many countries, as well as being No. 1 in Czech Republic, Ireland, Scotland, and The U.K. It's about time that we jump on board here. Now with "Truth Hurts," "Señorita," and "bad guy" not being super strong at the moment, could this actually contend for No. 1? I didn't think that was going to happen.

5- "Panini" - Lil Nas X (+9) -- Last week I talked about how "Old Town Road" is going to make Lil Nas X a one-hit wonder. By technical definitions, that is now an incorrect statement as "Panini" now vaults into the top five thanks to the remix with DaBaby. Last week's jump up to No. 14 was due to the official music video release. If I mixed those things up in my post last week, I'm now correct. Now I do think Lil Nas X still could end up being considered a one-hit wonder if you have a more loose definition of the term. Most artists that we put into that category did have a second or third song perform decently on the charts due to a sort of holdover effect, but history only remembers them for the one song. I mean, do you remember what the other hits for PSY and WALK THE MOON were outside "Gangnum Style" and "Shut Up and Dance"? In that light, I predict Lil Nas X will only ever be remembered for "Old Town Road," not "Panini." For better or for worst, "Panini" is not an earworm of a song like "Old Town Road." In fact, it's pretty boring and forgettable, with some awfully cheesy rhymes. If Lil Nas X had led with this song instead of "Old Town Road," no way this comes close to the top five. But it's only here now because it's the next single by Lil Nas X after "Old Town Road." Sure, maybe we need to come up with a better term than one-hit wonder, but I think you understand my point good enough. Lil Nas X is just a momentary flare.

6- "Ran$om" - Lil Tecca (=) -- I was bracing for this to return to the top five, but was pleasantly surprised to see it stay put. The two Post Malone songs expectedly dropped out of the top five, but they were replaced by "Someone You Loved" and "Panini" instead. Now if we could get this song to start dropping, that would be nice.

7- "No Guidance" - Chris Brown featuring Drake (=) -- I'm also ready for this song to fade away and be forgotten about. It's being too stubborn, though. But at least it's not getting any higher, though. I can tolerate it hanging around No. 7.

8- "Goodbyes" - Post Malone featuring Young Thug (-5) -- This song was nearly dead in terms of its top 10 life before Post Malone's album dropped. Now I'm wondering how much longer it will stick around. It's a good contender to drop, but we don't have a lot of strong contenders to replace it.

9- "Circles" - Post Malone (-5) -- There's rumblings of a radio push here that could give this song some actual traction following the debut and the album bomb. Like "Goodbyes," I wouldn't mind if this song stuck around, even though I won't miss it when its gone. But it's been a bit surprising with these two songs that they haven't been as huge as some of Post's other songs. Could it simply be the fact that these two songs are more pop-leaning than usual have caused Post fans to not be quite as enthusiastic over these two songs as they were towards his more hip-hop heavy songs?

10- "Old Town Road" - Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus (+1) -- I may or may not have mentioned last week that I wasn't quite ready to celebrate "Old Town Road" falling out of the top 10 because I knew that it was headed back with Post Malone falling out. But it only managed to jump one spot to No. 10, meaning it actually might be gone for good within a week or two. And as a fun fact, due to it's plunge in recent weeks following its 19-week run at No. 1, it's going to fall well short of the No. 1 spot on the 2010s decades list according to my personal tracking as I only track the top 10. I have no idea what Billboard's official list will look like, but right now "Old Town Road" is only at No. 4 and is way short of of the top three, which is "Uptown Funk," "Closer" and "Shape of You."


Rising on the Hot 100:





11- "I Don't Care" - Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (+2) -- The rising songs section is huge this week due to the fallout of Post Malone's album bomb last week. So let's go through these quickly. "I Don't Care" almost rises back to the top 10, but just misses out. That means it's probably gone for good. Although I wouldn't be sad if it swapped places with "Old Town Road" next week for the sake of getting "Old Town Road" out.

15- "Sucker" - Jonas Brothers (+4) -- "Sucker" holding well on the charts. It ain't coming back into the top 10, but it's hanging around in the teens. Not bad.

16- "Beautiful People" - Ed Sheeran featuring Khalid (+7) -- Our first real song on the rising songs section. I could see this hitting top 10, especially since Ed Sheeran and Khalid are both officially out of the top 10 with their two recent hit singles.

18- "Money in the Grave" - Drake featuring Rick Ross (+3) -- I'm glad this is done with the top 10.

19- "Boyfriend" - Ariana Grande & Social House (+6) -- I think I forgot this song exists.

20- "Suge" - DaBaby (+6) -- I honestly did forget this songs existed. And so should everyone else.

22- "Hot Girl Summer" - Megan Thee Stallion, Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign (+6) -- I'm a bit surprised that this never cracked top 10, but I'm certainly not complaining. It still has a chance to do so since it hasn't been around too long.

25- "The Git Up" - Blanco Brown (+6) -- I'm really surprised that this never hit top 10. It was soaring up the charts and all signs pointed towards it being the next big dance craze in 2019, but then it hit a brick wall and never recovered.

27- "Baby" - Lil Baby & DaBaby (+5) -- This is only here because the two thugs who put the word "baby" in their rapper names wrote a song called "Baby." I didn't think it was funny. And I certainly didn't think it was clever. Just really stupid. So can the novelty if this stupidity wear off, please?

29- "How Do You Sleep" - Sam Smith (+10) -- I'm always fan with Sam Smith being around.

30- "Dancing with a Stranger" - Sam Smith & Normani (+5) -- Speaking of Sam Smith, this is probably the last time I'll be including this song in this post. It was a good song.

32- "Without Me" - Halsey (+8) -- "Without Me" has impressively made it to 50 weeks on the charts. Due to Billboard's rules, that means it has two weeks left before it disappears and becomes a part of chart history rather than chart present.

34- "Trampoline" - SHAED (+8) -- YES!!! This needs to rise even higher!

35- "On Chill" - Wale featuring Jeremih (+13) -- Still don't care about this, but I'm getting nervous. Also, how do you pronounce Wale? Should it be a French pronunciation with an accent, ala "Walé"? Or is it whale, as in the animal. I choose to believe the animal.

38- "Only Human" - Jonas Brothers (+9) -- Jonas Brothers' next hit slowly rising. I wish I cared more about it.

47- "I Don't Know About You" - Chris Lane (+7) -- The country riser of the week.

53- "Time" - NF (+11) -- Snooze.

55- "Ballin'" - Mustard featuring Roddy Ricch (+14) -- Barf.

57- "Prayed for You" - Matt Stell (+14) -- Thanks for praying for me, Matt.

59- "223s" - YNW Melly & 9lokknine (+28) -- Gross. Also, I think I learned that 9lokknine is pronounced like "glokknine," not "blokknine." Of all these dumb things of replacing letters with numbers, turning a "g" into a "9" one of the worst I've seen yet.

62- "Even Though I'm Leaving" - Luke Combs (+30) -- Did I like this one? I can't remember. And there's too much songs this week for me to really care.

74- "Good Vibes" - Chris Janson (+11) -- I probably didn't like this one.

82- "Right Back" - Khalid featuring A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+11) -- Boogie needs to go away. But if I'm remembering right, he's barely on this remix of the song. So Khalid is hoping his name alone will help sell the song as he didn't give him much of anything to do in this song that was already forgettable in the first place.

New Arrivals:




13- "Don't Call Me Angel" - Ariana Grande, Miley Cyrus & Lana Del Rey -- From the upcoming movie "Charlie's Angels," hitting theaters in November. Honestly I think the movie has potential, even though no one on Earth asked for a new "Charlie's Angels" remake and excitement level seems to be in the cellar. But that's a conversation to be expanded on at a different time. Honestly I think some people were more excited for this song than the movie itself. And this trio might be more exciting than the movie's trio of angels. Although if you diss on my girl Kristen Stewart, I slap you. And Naomi Scott? I mean, come on. Again, conversation for another day. The song, though? Yeah, no, I'm gonna pass on this one. It might be a bit of a clever juxtaposition with a song called "Don't Call Me Angel" being the theme song for "Charlie's Angels." But Ariana is trying too hard, Miley isn't trying hard enough, and Lana is in a completely different song. With Ariana's side, she's trying so hard to sound super sexy. A lot of sighs and cooing, with a very airy delivery, yet she's there for most of the song. It should be Ariana featuring Miley and Lana because the latter two show up for a quick verse and are gone while Ariana takes a verse and all the choruses. With Miley, I didn't feel any energy or passion from her. By the time the song ended, I had forgotten she was in it. Then for the whole song, I was almost nervously anticipating Lana's entrance. And if you wonder how she mixes with these two... she doesn't. The song completely shifts gears in an awkward way. Granted, I might be fine with a full length version of Lana's section that cuts out Ariana and Miley, but as is this was a weird section of song that felt out of place. And yeah, it's a soundtrack song, meaning it has no depth.

40- "Camelot" - NLE Choppa -- Nope.

45- "Graveyard" - Halsey -- I saw the music video for this a few days ago and was blown away. But not because of the song. The music video is a time-lapse of Halsey painting a huge self portrait and it's excellent. If there comes a point where this music thing isn't working out for Halsey, she could try her hand as artist because this girl can paint. I watched the music video again for this post and was again distracted by the painting job. I totally forgot there was a song I was supposed to be listening to, so I had to go back to my normal Apple Music to listen to this song so I didn't get distracted. And it's not the most mindblowingly amazing song. She says the word graveyard in a funny way and sometimes the song gets stuck on the same note for a bit too long, but it's peaceful and relaxing. It's actually a perfect song for that time-lapse video because it enhances the mood of what's happening. So if you need a nice song playing in the background for whatever it is you're doing, I think "Graveyard" is perfect for that. And sometimes you need a song that's simple and relaxing. I don't know if this is going to be Halsey's next huge hit. If it quickly fades away, it's one of those songs that I might forget exists, but if it sticks around and does, I'll certainly be accepting.

75- "Behind Barz" - Drake -- If this becomes huge, then sure, I'll give it a shot. But for now I don't feel like dealing with a Drake song that debuts at No. 75.

76- "Mood Swings" - A Boogie wit da Hoodie -- Boogie needs to leave me alone.

91- "Hot Girl Bummer" - blackbear -- I facepalmed so hard when I saw this. Obviously this is a play on "Hot Girl Summer," but... why?

97- "1, 2 Many" - Luke Combs & Brooks & Dunn -- This is a confusing artist listing. For the record, there are two acts here. The first is Luke Combs and the second act is the duo Brooks & Dunn. And this is the most twangy, southern, generically country song there is. I'm not even comment any more. Hardcore country fans are going to have fun with this, but this song exemplifies everything wrong about country for me.

100- "Remember You Young" - Thomas Rhett -- After listening to whatever the heck that last thing was, this latest song from Thomas Rhett was quite the breath of fresh air. Now Thomas Rhett is always a confusing artist to me. I never have any idea if a new song of his is going to be awful or if it's going to be really good. So I guess inconsistent in terms of quality is the best way to describe him. But this song is really nice. It has a smooth, gentle touch to it, and outside a few references to drinking tequila, there's no signs of country here. It's a pop song from Mr. Rhett that's very pleasant to listen to. I do get a bit conflicted in regards to the lyrics, though. If the song was a bit more focused with one subject that he's referring to, this could've been great. If it was a father wondering how his little daughter became all grown up or a story about a man falling in love with his childhood friend. Instead, each verse has a different subject that Thomas Rhett is saying he's always going to remember young. And thus when a song is about too much, it ends up being about nothing. Thus I can find songs that do this very thing a lot better. But still, musically speaking this is a nice tune to listen. And if country radio wants to jump on board this non country song that can also cross over to pop radio and make this a big hit, I'll be totally fine with that.

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