Wednesday, October 16, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - October 19, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "HIGHEST IN THE ROOM" - Travis Scott (new) -- I had a feeling we were going to get a new No. 1 before too long since "Truth Hurts" wasn't exactly the strongest No. 1. But this isn't how I envisioned it. I knew Travis Scott was coming because his new single was getting a lot of hype, but I was surprised to see it debut this high. It becomes his second No. 1 following "SICKO MODE" and the 35th song to debut at No. 1. It's the third song to do so this year following Ariana Grande's "7 rings" and Jonas Brothers' "Sucker." If you're curious, the first song to debut at No. 1 was Michael Jackson's "You are Not Alone" in 1995. Travis Scott hit No. 1 with 59 million U.S. streams and 51,000 downloads sold, which is No. 1 on streaming, but No. 2 on sales, behind our other top 5 debut that we'll get to in a second. The song didn't exactly register on the radio charts, but I'm sure that'll come around. Now the question will be what it does from here. After huge debuts, songs usually dip in their second weeks before either free-falling or gaining actual traction. Given how huge "SICKO MODE" was (it was in the top 10 for over 30 weeks), I'm guessing "HIGHEST IN THE ROOM" is going to be around for a while. With only 10 weeks left in the calendar year, it wouldn't be too crazy of an idea to predict that this finishes the year at No. 1, especially considering the competition right now isn't too terribly strong. But that would be predicated on the streaming and sales remaining consistent with it needing to also catch up on radio. So we'll see.

2- "Truth Hurts" - Lizzo (-1) -- If Travis Scott falls off the face of the cliff in the next week or two, it wouldn't be surprising to see "Truth Hurts" go back to No. 1. The song is still consistent across the board, even though its also peaked in all categories as well as its down 1 percent in radio (120.4 million), 8 percent in streaming (25.8 million) and 7 percent in sales (28,000). So yeah, Travis Scott is going to have to tumble quite a bit for "Truth Hurts" to go back to the top. That radio number will help her out, though, as she has over 100 million more audience impressions than Travis Scott at the moment.

3- "Señorita" - Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello (-1) -- Having never been able to catch back up to "Truth Hurts," Shawn and Camila slide down to No. 3 with Travis Scott's debut However, "Señorita" is still ahead of "Truth Hurts" on my personal tracking for the year end list. And if it remains just one spot behind like this, it's going to take a significant number of weeks for "Truth Hurts" to actually get ahead. But with 10 weeks left in the year, anything can still happen.

4- "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber (new) -- I was extremely confused when I first saw this on the charts because all my brain saw was Dan + Shay. How in the world did Dan + Shay debut in the top five? For context, their highest charting hit is "Tequila," which peaked at No. 21. In fact, no duo or group who primarily records country music has ever debuted in the top five on the Hot 100. So this is quite strange. But then I saw the second name. Oh. That's how. This had nothing to do with Dan + Shay and everything to do with Justin Bieber. At first I thought it was a bit of a strange combination of artists, but mixing pop and country has worked wonders in the past, most notably with "Meant to Be," which teamed Florida Georgia Line with Bebe Rexha, resulting in one of the top songs of that year. Given that Justin Bieber is a malleable artist who will team up with just about anyone, he now adds a No. 1 hit on the Hot Country Songs chart to his resume, making him the only artist to have a No. 1 hit on the Hot Country Songs, Hot Dance/Electronic Songs, Hot Latin Songs, Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs, Hot Rap Songs and Hot R&B Songs charts, while obviously also topping a whole bunch of pop songs charts. So yeah, it's been quite the career for Justin.

5- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (-2) -- One of the losers this week is Lewis Capaldi, who gets bullied down to No. 5 this week. While previously being in good position to eventually take over the top spot, being that "Truth Hurts" and "Señorita" have been around for a lot longer, that now seems a lot more unlikely with the added competition of Travis Scott and Justin Bieber. But still, for a global hit that is new to the U.S., being here in the top five in the first place is an impressive feat. And this could still sneak up a bit in the top five if Travis and Justin fall off their debuts and/or if "Truth Hurts" and "Señorita" continue to tank when it comes to chart points.

6- "Circles" - Post Malone (+2) -- The big winner this week is Post Malone as "Circles" manages to rise two spots despite two songs debuting ahead of it. That's a solid sign moving forward, meaning that Post Malone might actually have a song that will gain real traction with "Goodbyes" taking a surprise exit from the top 10 this week following a run that, while not disappointing, didn't quite live up to previous Post Malone tracks. Maybe "Circles" will? It still has a long way to go if its going to overcome everything in its way, but it's still positioned quite well to finish off the year strong.

7- "No Guidance" - Chris Brown featuring Drake (-2) -- Tumbling out of the top five is, thankfully, "No Guidance." We don't need any more Chris Brown or Drake, so it would be really nice if we could bully this song out of here.

8- "Ran$om" - Lil Tecca (-4) -- With Travis Scott getting huge streaming numbers, Lil Tecca was the big loser as all the services that force new songs onto people's playlists now have a new song to push. It's made zero sense to me as to how and why this song has had such huge streaming numbers. Certainly people aren't voluntarily listening to this song on repeat, right? Thus even though I'm not super ecstatic about Travis Scott being around, if he forces Lil Tecca out, that's at least something good.

9- "bad guy" - Billie Eilish (-3) -- After a bit of a rebound last week, Billie again falls down due to this week actually being an active week for the Hot 100. "bad guy" has been in the top 10 for 27 weeks now, so I can't complain that its time is up. However, if it can manage just one more week in the top 10, it'll officially move past "Sunflower" on my personal year end tracking of the most popular songs of the year. I think it can do that. If not, a close third for the year is nothing to be upset about.

10- "Panini" - Lil Nas X (-1) -- Ladies and gentleman, the time has finally come. "Old Town Road" is OUT of the top 10 as it fell to No. 14 this week. And a bit surprisingly, "Panini" is about to follow suit. Even though Lil Nas X is an expert at promoting his songs, there's only so much he can do when he writes a song as boring and dull as this one. "Old Town Road" was an earworm that was easy to get stuck in your head. People might be singing that one for years to come. No one is going to ever remember "Panini."


Rising on the Hot 100:





16- "Playing Games" - Summer Walker (+59) -- In a strange turn of events, it's the week of Summer Walker as the music gods rather quickly expedited her into being a thing. The only reason she charted in the first place was because Drake remixed one of her songs. And now only a short time later, she has her own album bomb. So far I've not found her to be a bad artist, but more of a boring one. I can understand her appeal, but she's just not for me. Thus I'm not interested in spending my whole day covering her album. I'll wait to see which of her songs become hits and talk about them when the time comes. Speaking of which, this song is now a top 20 hit, but I imagine it will come crashing back down next week. Whether or not it will be able to maintain enough traction to become a real hit after that remains to be seen.

20- "Memories" - Maroon 5 (+9) -- For better or for worse, this song has got be on a "Canon in D" kick. I've listened to that so many times in the last couple of weeks, even putting it on repeat while I do things, which is an excellent way to help me keep focused. I've learned, though, that most of the crowd that usually hates or dislikes Maroon 5 stuff also is about equally unimpressed with this song, making me a bit unique in not hating it. But oh well. I certainly won't lose any sleep if it fails to gain traction. But I mean, come on. It's Maroon 5. The radio will endlessly play ANYTHING the release. So this is going to stick around.

24- "Good as Hell" - Lizzo (+6) -- Can we make this a hit? I would love to see this go into the top 10, especially if "Truth Hurts" is going to start declining. I think most people, even those who love Lizzo, will agree that this is the better song. Even though I'm not in the Lizzo fan base, I totally agree with the assessment that "Good as Hell" is better.

30- "Ballin'" - Mustard featuring Roddy Ricch (+23) -- Make this go away.

34- "Lover" - Taylor Swift (+11) -- Taylor Swift is hanging in there as "Lover" ever so slowly climbs up the charts. It still has a long way to go to get back to where it was when Taylor's album was released, but the momentum for it is currently positive, which pleases me. If this song does well, that means some of Taylor's future singles might also have hope. Even though her initial singles for the album were a bit rough, it turns out that there's a lot of good songs on her album that I would love to see become hits.

36- "Prayed for You" - Matt Stell (+10) -- Matt Stell praying his way up the country charts. I suppose I'm not upset. This song is fine.

44- "Graveyard" - Halsey (+16) -- I still contend that the time lapse music video for this song was more impressive than the song itself, but this is a serviceable song for Halsey. If pop radio needs something to play, they should give this one some spins.

47- "Heat" - Chris Brown (+10) -- Make Chris Brown go away.

49- "Even Though I'm Leaving" - Luke Combs (+9) -- I suppose this is better than some of the other Luke Combs songs that have been hits, but I still can't get too excited about this. The Matt Stell song I'm fine with. This one I'm indifferent towards.

56- "Good Vibes" - Chris Janson (+10) -- I'm also not on board with this one.

64- "What Happens in a Small Town" - Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Eli (+21) -- It's a good week for country as country radio pushes it's new slate of songs. But I'm also not on board with this generic country song.

66- "Hot Girl Bummer" - blackbear (+10) -- NO!!! Make it go away!

85- "Higher Love" - Kygo & Whitney Houston (+10) -- Yes, please! This song hasn't been able to decide if it's going to be a fun novelty that quickly goes away or if it wants to be a legitimate hit. I'm totally on board with the latter. Let's give Whitney another hit! Sure, EDM isn't the best fit for Whitney's voice, but it's fine enough and a remix like this is probably the only way to bring Whitney back to the charts.


New Arrivals:





1- "HIGHEST IN THE ROOM" - Travis Scott -- OK, fine. Normally I ignore Travis Scott. But given that he currently has the No. 1 hit, I'll subject myself to this. In the most unsurprising turn of events, I don't like this. And I have no idea why Travis Scott has been knighted by so many as one of the most talented hip-hop artists in the business. Sure, he's fairly inoffensive comparatively. But that's not a very high bar to jump over when the competition is people like Lil Tecca, Juice WRLD, YoungBoy Never Broke Again, A Boogie wit da Hoodie, or Chris Brown. And I like the fact that Travis Scott at least sounds like a real name (even though his real name is Jacques Berman Webster II). All of these goofy rap names drive me crazy. But all Travis is doing in this song is talking about how high he is, discussing his relationship with his ex-girlfriend Kylie Jenner (who he broke up with two days before releasing this song), and doing some occasional flexing. All the bars are the same length and Travis' vocals never change beyond singing the same two or three notes for the most of the song, meaning the flow is boring and we also do the annoying thing of throwing in a whole bunch of echoes. So there's nothing to grasp onto with this. And now you know why I normally skip Travis Scott. 

4- "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber -- When I first saw Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber listed on the same song, I was initially quite confused as it seemed like a strange combination. The more I thought about it, though, the more it kinda made sense. Again, when we have country and pop crossovers, that's where we hit chart gold, like "Meant to Be" with Florida Georgia Line and Bebe Rexha. And as I stated above, the definition I came up with for Justin Bieber is malleable. He can jump on a Latin song like "Despacito" and fit in. He's good at balancing out a hip-hop song. I did a song with Ed Sheeran earlier this year where it was hard to tell the two apart. And he's a great fit for an EDM song. So why not dip his feet into country? It's especially helpful that Dan + Shay often lean into the more country pop realm anyways, so this is an easy fit. Now I'm not always madly in love with Dan + Shay. They can easily fall into country tropes that annoy me, which is most of "Tequila" for me. But then they have potential to step aside and do a nice wedding song, which is exactly what this one is. If you totally remove Justin Bieber from this song, this fits as quite a nice wedding song and one of Dan + Shay's better songs. It's simple in its lyrics, but it also feels genuine with the delivery and is toned back with the music. Throw in Justin Bieber and he mixes quite nicely with them. In fact, my biggest concern with the song is Justin fits in a little too well, making his inclusion fairly unnecessary. There's no reason to have him on the song as he doesn't add anything different to it. He's just doing his best Dan + Shay impression. At the same time, though, he doesn't do anything to retract from the song, so I'm not upset he's here. If his sole purpose is to push a nice wedding song to a much larger audience than Dan + Shay would've otherwise had, then I'd say this is a big win. Thus it parallels "Despacito." Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee didn't NEED Bieber on their song and he didn't add anything outside a bit of English. But he didn't detract from the song either and he helped them immensely with the sales.

11- "Bandit" - Juice WRLD & YoungBoy Never Broke Again -- This song did not crack the top 10, so I will gladly ignore it.  

42- "Come Thru" - Summer Walker & Usher -- As I stated above, I'm not interested in covering a Summer Walker album bomb. I have better things to do with my day.

61- "I'll Kill You" - Summer Walker featuring Jhene Aiko -- I'm not covering Summer Walker's album bomb today.

68- "Stretch You Out" - Summer Walker featuring A Boogie wit da Hoodie -- I'm not covering Summer Walker's album bomb today.

73- "Body" - Summer Walker -- I'm not covering Summer Walker's album bomb today.

79- "Drunk Dialing...LODT" - Summer Walker -- I'm not covering Summer Walker's album bomb today.

80- "Over It" - Summer Walker -- I'm not covering Summer Walker's album bomb today.

83- "Nice to Meet Ya" - Niall Horan -- Recently I've been thinking about where our One Directioners went. And this was because Liam Payne did one of those Wired autocomplete interviews. Then I saw that Harry Styles released a new song titled "Lights Up," so I was expecting a return from them, but Niall wasn't the one that I was anticipating. I thought we'd get to cover Harry or maybe Liam. Maybe they'll be in future weeks. For now we talk about Niall. If I'm being honest, Niall hasn't been the most interesting of the One Directioners in terms of their solo adventures. With songs like "Slow Hands" and "This Town," he's been the one that's sounded the most like One Direction, delivering simple, basic music that has nothing much to offer. Which is why I'm surprised a bit by "Nice to Meet Ya" because this has a solid groove to it. It's significantly different and it's super infectious. If I was a super nerdy music person, I'd dissect all the individual elements of the song, but I'm not actually good at doing that. But what I do hear is a solid mix of hand claps, piano and a bass guitar, with some excellently timed backing vocals and good drum work. I'm also trying to nail down exactly what era this sounds like its from. I'm almost thinking it reminds me of some 70's or 80's grooves. But maybe there's a bitter fit that's not coming to me at the movie. Either way, this song is a lot of fun and if Niall's second album is like this, bring it on. I didn't listen to his first album, but I'll check out his second album if it's this fun.

91- "Leave Em Alone" - Layton Greene, Lil Baby, City Girls & PnB Rock -- I have no idea who Layton Greene is, but give the other three acts on this song, this is also worth ignoring.

92- "Potential" - Summer Walker -- I'm not covering Summer Walker's album bomb today.

96- "Dance Monkey" - Tones and I -- The last thing to do this week is figure out who Tones and I are. As it turns out, Tones and I aren't a they, they're a she. One person. And she's a 19-year-old Australian singer-songwriter who released her debut single, "Johnny Runs Away" back in March, then followed it up with "Dance Monkey" in May. I haven't been as up to speed on my worldwide hits as I should, but "Dance Monkey" has been absolutely huge, having gone No. 1 in over 20 different countries. Like is always the case, the U.S. is behind everyone because we choose to shove a bunch of crappy hip-hop artists down everyone's throats instead of releasing quality music. But whatever. This is finally here and we'll see how people here take to it. Lewis Capaldi is currently in the top five after taking forever to finally crossover, so it can happen. As far as "Dance Monkey," I'll admit that this is a bit of a strange song, mostly because Tones and I has a unique vocal delivery that switches back and forth from being a normal pop voice to growling to singing in a higher-pitched baby voice. I like playing these more obscure songs for my friends on car drives and in other situations and I honestly don't how they're going to take to this one, but I'm awfully curious to try. Regardless of what people think of the vocals, the thing this absolutely does have going for it is a fun, dancy groove. Once I get used to the vocals, I can see this becoming a song that grows on me. The dance craze of 2020? Well, maybe not. But I could envision a world wherein that happens given that the rest of the world has already taken to it.

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