Tuesday, October 29, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - November 2, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (+2) -- I'm genuinely surprised right now to see "Someone You Loved" at No. 1. Pleasantly surprised, I might add. Granted, "Truth Hurts" has been bleeding quite a bit in the last few weeks, so I was expecting something else to rise up and top it, but I was at the point where I thought "Someone You Loved" had peaked and was going to fall down with "Truth Hurts" and "Señorita." In hindsight, "Someone You Loved" has been in the top 10 for a much shorter time than "Truth Hurts" and "Señorita," so this makes sense. And I had mentioned this fact in many previous weeks. It's just that it seemingly got stuck behind those two, and since Billboard in their weekly article gave up on posting specific numbers for "Señorita" and "Someone You Loved," while also throwing a lot of their other smaller charts behind a pay wall, I was forced to play a guessing game with this and I didn't think it was going to make it. But hey, all that allows for a pleasantly surprise. Granted, this also isn't the strongest No. 1 at the moment. It's No. 2 on radio with 106.5 million audience impressions (down 2 percent), No. 2 on sales with 24,000 downloads sold (up 41 percent) and No. 8 on streaming with 25.2 U.S. streams (up 2 percent). So I suppose we can say it got here because it remained consistent enough in all categories, and was helped this week by a spike in sales from some source. I don't know what that specific source is, though. It's also worth noting that "Someone You Loved" reached No. 1 in its 24th week on the Hot 100, which is the fifth leggiest journey to No. 1 of all-time. The record there belongs to "Amazed" by Lonestar, which took 31 weeks to get to No. 1, which it accomplished on March 4, 2000.

2- "Truth Hurts" - Lizzo (-1) -- Last week Lizzo tied Iggy Azalea for the longest running No. 1 ever for a rap song by a woman. This week the two ladies remain tied for that record. And now that Lizzo has been pushed down (for a second time in three weeks), I imagine they're going to have to share that record for a while. Because even though the margins for "Someone You Loved" and "Truth Hurts" are pretty close, "Truth Hurts" is sliding down a lot faster. It's No. 1 on radio with 111.9 million audience impressions (down 3 percent), No. 5 on sales with 17,000 downloads sold (down 15 percent) and No. 11 on streaming with 21.7 million U.S. streams (down 7 percent).

3- "Señorita" - Shawn Mendes (-1) -- Although no numbers were reported for "Señorita," I imagine it also is falling at a similar rate as "Truth Hurts." However, both songs have been here for long enough to have already clinched high spots on the year end list. In my personal tracking, "Señorita" is No. 4 while "Truth Hurts" is No. 6. "Señorita" still has a significant lead over "Truth Hurts." And as long as they stay one spot away from each other, that's going to stay that way.

4- "Circles" - Post Malone (=) -- Although I have no data to back it up, I still think "Circles" might be in the best position at the moment in the top five. The three songs ahead of it have all plateaued to some degree, if not on the downward trend. "Circles" seems to have enough life in the tank to hang around for a while longer, though.

5- "No Guidance" - Chris Brown featuring Drake (=) -- I really have no idea why this is still around. I want it to start losing traction already.

6- "Panini" - Lil Nas X (+3) -- Wait... what? I don't understand. I was thinking this might drop out of the top 10 this week, but instead it rises three spots. I is confused.

7- "HIGHEST IN THE ROOM" - Travis Scott (-1) -- I won't count this song out just yet. There was a point in time where "SICKO MODE" was in a similar spot as this song is and I thought it was going away. But then it stuck around for a long time and joined the 30 week club in the top 10. I'm hoping this will only be here for a small while longer, but I have no idea at this point.

8- "Ran$om" - Lil Tecca (-1) -- Make this go away.

9- "bad guy" - Billie Eilish (-1) -- I think we only have a few more weeks left of Billie in the top 10. But what an amazing run this has been. If you missed my comments from last week, this has officially moved up to No. 2 on my personal tracking for most popular songs of the year, sneaking past Post Malone and Swae Lee's "Sunflower."

10- "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber (+1) -- OK. I'll take this. I knew that Juice WRLD and Young Boy Never Broke Again song was only going to last a week in the top 10 since it only got a boost due to the album. But I thought it was going to be Maroon 5's "Memories" that took its place in the top 10. Instead, "Memories" gets stuck at the illustrious No. 11 spot while "10,000 Hours" returns to the region. Maybe this is an early sign that this song might actually be gaining traction after its big debut a couple of weeks ago. And I'm good with that. I think this is a good song.


Rising on the Hot 100:





14- "Good as Hell" - Lizzo (+6) -- I'm still expecting "Memories" to hit the top 10, even though it didn't qualify for this list this week as it only rose one spot up to No. 11. But I certainly hope that "Good as Hell" will also rise. It's the better of the two top Lizzo songs and deserves to be in the top 10. If we have to send Billie packing, this is a fine replacement. I just hope we can kick out "Ransom," "HIGHEST IN THE ROOM" and/or "Panini" as well, because those are the ones that seem like they're on the way out.

19- "Trampoline" - SHAED (+2) -- This entered the top 20 a few weeks ago and then it got stuck. Now I'm thinking that it might just hang out in this region instead of entering the top 10. But we'll see. "Someone You Loved" managed to be consistent enough to not only get in the top 10, but also hit No. 1. With there being a lot of falling songs right now, this song just needs enough traction to remain consistent in its chart points.

20- "Only Human" - Jonas Brothers (+4) -- Jonas Brothers are back in the top 20. And right now I think we have a decent set of risers. At least when it comes to the risers currently in the top 20. That gives me hope that good weeks are ahead. We just have to survive the Kanye West onslaught that is coming next week.

32- "One Man Band" - Old Dominion (+13) -- I finally listened to this song. And conceded that it was fine enough. It's still not memorable enough for me to really care, but if this is our next big country song, I won't complain that much.

34- "Even Though I'm Leaving" - Luke combs (+5) -- I'm in about the same position with this song as I am with Old Dominion. I suppose this is fine enough.

49- "Love You Too Late" - Cole Swindell (+11) -- I'm not going to be quite as nice with this country song, though. It's not that much worse, but it also doesn't have any redeeming qualities to it in my book, so it's a country song that just kind of exists.

51- "Dance Monkey" - Tones and I (+24) -- Two straight weeks of 20+ gains and I'm beginning to be convinced that this could be as huge in the U.S. as it has been across the world. Although it's a lot easier to cruise through the bottom half of the Hot 100. It'll start facing its real test as it gets to the top half of the Hot 100. I hope that it continues to soar as it has all the ingredients of an extremely entertaining pop song, even though it also qualifies for being the most annoying song you've ever loved. My roommate calls it the Betty Boop song. I think that's a hilariously accurate title for it.

59- "Baby Sitter" - DaBaby featuring Offset (+13) -- This needs to go away.

79- "Rich as Hell" - YoungBoy Never Broke Again (+21) -- Why do we have YoungBoy songs rising this week. This one needs to fall with the rest of them.

81- "We Were" - Keith Urban (+16) -- This is one of those country songs that hasn't been able to make up its mind as to what it's going to do. I say let's send it up the country charts. Of all the country songs rising this week, this is the best.


New Arrivals:





15- "Lose You to Love Me" - Selena Gomez -- The top song of this week, and one of the only songs to debut in a rather quite week, is the new song from Selena Gomez, that previews a potential new album for her. And I'm always game for more Selena. I think she's matured quite a bit as a singer and has developed into one of my favorite female pop singers. "Lose You to Love Me" is a stripped down and somber break-up ballad. Even though it's not the most original song to ever be written, and is even quite a bit inferior to her recent songs like "Wolves" and "It Ain't Me," that Selena maturity still elevates this song into a solid pop song. Yeah, she singing about a toxic relationship that she had to get out of to find her self worth. That's nothing new. But she sells it with her vocals. And she's not belting anything. In fact, this is a fairly restrained song. There are times where the door is wide open for Selena to walk right through with some power, but she doesn't take it, instead letting the quality of her voice and the sincerity of her deliver carry it through and it works. It's a rather beautiful ballad. It's also a song that was released last Wednesday, the 23rd. If I have my tracking right, that means it debuted at No. 15 with only a partial week of tracking, so this could be in for a decent rise next week and I would love that because this is an excellent song. Perhaps I could've used a bit more substance on the chorus, but that's more of a nitpick than an actual issue I have with the song. And if this is a sneak peak of what a new album is going to sound like, I'm excited for that album! Selena also has another new song titled "Look at Her Now" that was released a tad bit later than this one. I'm assuming we'll get to that one next week because it didn't quite make the cut this week.

97- "Somebody" - Internet Money, Lil Tecca & A Boogie wit da Hoodie -- Nope. Not going to touch this one. Instead I'm going to facepalm at yet another extremely stupid rap name. Internet Money? Really?

98- "DHL" - Frank Ocean -- I've never really been that big of a Frank Ocean fan. He's one of those artists who I feel that I should like a lot more than I actually do. And this is another example of that. I'm assuming this is a song that a lot of people will like and I'm not going to be particularly angry at that. There's certainly a lot worse out there. This has a decent flow to it and an interesting key change partway through. And Frank's vocals are fine. It's just that there's not much in terms of content. I'm not sure what this song is about and there's nothing incredible about the music. It just kinda lulls me to sleep as Frank is rambling on about something. I don't know how big this song is going to be, but if it disappears, I probably won't remember it. And if it becomes a huge hit, I'll probably be more ambivalent towards it. So it's whatever.

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