Friday, December 13, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - December 14, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

As I've noted in previous weeks, I'm tracking Christmas songs on the Hot 100 in their own category. This will continue until they all disappear, which is usually early January. With Christmas season now here, they're all starting to show up in droves and so I'm going to have fun tracking to see how they all do, especially since it looks like it will be a historic season for Christmas songs on the charts.

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "Heartless" - The Weeknd (+31) -- I keep underestimating these songs that shoot up on the charts after their first full week of tracking. Selena Gomez, Billie Eilish and now The Weeknd have all caught me off guard recently. Because, yeah, like those other two, I didn't realize that The Weeknd debuted last week with only a partial tracking week. The track is boosted heavily by streaming and sales with 30 million U.S. streams and 58,000 sold this week, both significant jumps from the previous week. Airplay is slowly gaining tracking, but is currently a long ways away from being able to boost the song up as I expect this to come crashing down next week. Maybe The Weeknd will maintain decent streaming, but those sales are going to come crashing down. So the question is, what will take its spot next week? My bet is on Mariah Carey, but it's possible that Juice WRLD takes it with "Lucid Dreams" in a similar way that XXXTENTACION took No. 1.

2- "Circles" - Post Malone (-1) -- Yeah, I didn't think this one would last very long at time, although I wasn't expecting The Weeknd to be the one to take the crown. "Circles" is holding well on the radio, but sales tanked this week and streaming didn't do so hot anyways. And with the Christmas songs rapidly taking over, this might be swallowed up.

3- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (+15) -- I expected Mariah to get this high as she peaked at No. 3 last Christmas season with this song. The thing is, last season she hit No. 3 in the week dated Jan. 5, so technically earlier this year. That means this song is just getting started and it's already the No. 1 song on streaming. This is definitely taking the No. 1 spot as early as next week, especially considering the two songs ahead of it aren't the strongest at the moment. The Weeknd is going to come crashing down in his second full week of tracking while Post Malone is bleeding significantly in streaming and sales.

4- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (-2) -- All things considered, Lewis Capaldi is holding on pretty well. He got knocked down by The Weeknd and Mariah, but still managed to stay ahead of the other songs in the top five last week.

5- "Memories" - Maroon 5 (-1) -- I think "Memories" has enough traction at the moment to be able to withstand the invasion of Christmas music over the course of the next month. It hasn't quite caught up to "Someone You Loved" or "Circles," but it did sneak ahead of "Good as Hell," which was a bit of a surprise.

6- "Good as Hell" - Lizzo (-3) -- Out of all the songs to topple this week, I wasn't expecting "Good as Hell" to take a hit. I would love for this song to stick around, but it looks like it could end up being a casualty of the Christmas music this month.

7- "Roxanne" - Arizona Zervas (-2) -- I'm glad this cockroach fell out of the top five, but I'm not celebrating just yet. Sure, Christmas music is going to continue to knock this down, which is great, but I'm not so certain this is done just yet. And I base that solely on the idea that awful trap songs like this have a habit of sticking around.

8- "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (+21) -- OK, so Mariah shooting into the top five wasn't too surprising, especially since she hit that mark last Christmas. But Brenda skyrocketing into the top 10 this early was surprising, especially since it peaked at No. 9 last Christmas season. But with this type of momentum, can we now expect this to go even higher and soar into the top five? And how many other Christmas songs will hit top 10 or even top five this season? I'm excited to see! Much more on the rest of the Christmas songs here in a second.

9- "Lose You to Love Me" - Selena Gomez (-3) -- Unfortunately it does appear that Selena is going to be a casualty of the Christmas music. I would like for this to hold on better, but it's just not quite getting the right amount of traction and now it might get left in the dust with this upcoming stampede. I can only hope that, come January, someone Selena's fortunes might change. Although I can't be too sad since this song did get Selena her first No. 1 hit. That was already a huge accomplishment.

10- "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber (-2) -- In a weird way, I'm not so sure that this song is completely done with the top five. Of course it's going to take a hiatus after this week as more Christmas songs are bound to hit top 10. But this could hang out in the teens for a while and make it's way back come January.


Rising on the Hot 100:





46- "Into the Unknown" - Idina Menzel & AURORA (+9) -- There were plenty of risers on the charts this week. It's just that they all belong in the next category, so we'll get to them. As far as non-Christmas songs, it was the two "Frozen 2" songs that are the big risers this week, with "Into the Unknown" cracking top 50. Of course this won't get close to the level that "Let It Go" did, but I envision that this song will hang around for a while on the Hot 100. At least while "Frozen 2" is still dominating the box office.

70- "Show Yourself" - Idina Menzel & Evan Rachel Wood (+29) -- It does make me happy that "Show Yourself" had the much larger rise of the two "Frozen 2" songs. I still haven't decided which Elsa song I like best. "Into the Unknown" is the catchier song of the two, but I remember "Show Yourself" having a larger impact on me in context of the film. So it's good to see that it's not just "Into the Unknown" performing well. I would've liked to have seen more "Frozen 2" songs crack the Hot 100. But I'll take what I can get it.

88- "Homesick" - Kane Brown (+12) -- Spoiling the "Frozen 2" party here in the rising songs section is Kane Brown. Because we couldn't go a week without a country song.


Christmas Songs: 





3- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (+15) -- I already expressed my surprise that Mariah hit No. 3 so early. But as you can see here, the first full week of December in terms of the tracking was quite healthy across the board as everything shot up, with a large number of re-entries joining the party. It's already looking like it will be a historical season for holiday music on the charts, but just how strong will this all be? I'm really curious to see how this all pans out these next few weeks. But yes, Mariah reigns supreme in the holiday realm.

8- "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (+21) -- I love seeing Brenda go toe-to-toe with Mariah in the top 10. I would love for this to reach the top five here next week. It's good to get some classic Christmas fun spread around during the holidays.

18- "A Holly Jolly Christmas" - Burl Ives (+30) -- The previous two songs are already in the top 10. This song, as well as the two following, were in the top 10 last year, so it seems predetermined that they will all return. Can the do so at the same time while inviting others to the party, too? "A Holly Jolly Christmas" is a definite Christmas classic. It's one of the first songs anyone will starting singing when Christmas time comes around.

23- "Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (+24) -- I really like the combination of having both Brenda Lee and Bobby Helms making noise in the Christmas realm. Both songs are the fun, upbeat part of the holiday season.

24- "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year" - Andy Williams (+25) -- Much like "A Holly Jolly Christmas," the simplicity and joy that this song brings around Christmas time makes it one of the most iconic Christmas songs.

27- "Last Christmas" - Wham! (+19) -- I call this one the black sheep of the family. The other songs are all so upbeat and friendly. Meanwhile, George Michael rocks the bitter, salty Christmas song that doesn't have a lot of happiness and joy to it, but is still incredibly infectious. It's a strange one, but it's still good.

28- "Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow" - Dean Martin (re-entry) -- Now we bring on this week's slate of re-entries. I don't always like it to snow. I'm one of those people that hates the cold, so I don't mind having a green Christmas because that means the weather is slightly warmer. But the nice thing about this song is that it's warm and cozy. It's about two people spending time together by the fire, having a relaxing, romantic night, so they don't mind it if the snow continues to fall. That makes this song more of a winter song than a Christmas song, but they're mostly one and the same, right? Dean Martin's voice is so relaxing that he could sing any song and make me love it.

33- "The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You)" - Nat King Cole (re-entry) -- The thing that I love about the Christmas songs doing so well is that the majority of them are the older, classic versions of the song. Like Dean Martin, Nat King Cole has an excellent voice that's very warm and soothing. And of course we have to have a song called "The Christmas Song" do well during Christmas.

39- "Feliz Navidad" - Jose Feliciano (re-entry) -- Perhaps the most infectious Christmas song there is. And there's really nothing to it in terms of the lyrics. There's a Spanish section and an English section. Both are pretty short and the song just repeats. But I can have this song on repeat for hours. Then I'll have it stuck in my for the rest of the week. It's just the perfect combination of this Mariachi Band Christmas song thing. And there's enough English in the song for us dumb Americans to actually accept it into our Christmas culture.

43- "Sleigh Ride" - The Ronettes (re-entry) -- In my Junior High School band class, the ninth grade class always performed this song for the Christmas band concert. So it's had a special place in my heart. That's also why I might be a tad bit more partial to the orchestral version of this. For a great example of that, the Leroy Anderson version of the song is fantastic. But The Ronettes do a great job with their lyrics of making this feel like a fun, adventurous sleigh ride that we're going on with this song.

44- "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" - Gene Autry (re-entry) -- I mean, it would be Christmas without Rudolph. This is the one song that every person on the planet has memorized, regardless of age. Sure, it might be a Christmas song that's more directed at children. But we're all children at heart, right?

47- "Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season" - Andy Williams (new) -- I'm always curious to see which new Christmas songs debut on the charts each Christmas season. Last year we got a a large mass of new Christmas songs on the charts and it made me overjoyed. With this year looking it will be a history Christmas season, I'm sure there will be at least a decent handful of new arrivals. We start this season with a song that I'm honestly not quite as familiar, which is why it surprised me that this was the first new arrival. I think the chorus on this song is the most recognizable, but the verses feel a bit obscure, which is why it was fun exploring all of them. Out of all the Christmas songs on the charts right now, I actually think this is one of the longer ones as most of these are fairly short and simple. But the verses in this song give the song a lot of personality and the rhyming schemes are fairly subtle, but clever. It feels like the type of song that Andy Williams probably had a lot of fun performing.

48- "Here Comes Santa Claus (Right Down Santa Claus Lane)" - Gene Autry (re-entry) -- Like last year, we get a double dose of Gene Autry. Perhaps Gene Autry isn't the first one you think of when it comes to Christmas singers. And "Here Comes Santa Claus" isn't necessarily the most popular Christmas song ever, but I like how both Gene and this song are getting love on the charts.

72- "Like It's Christmas" - Jonas Brothers (new) -- Out of all the current artists to release a Christmas song, I'm not sure I would've tagged the Jonas Brothers to be the first one to chart a new Christmas, but it works. They certainly have the personality to pull of a fun Christmas song. Although I find it curious that this song is more of a love song that uses Christmas as a backdrop rather than it being a song that feels like a genuine song about the holiday or the season itself. The girl is so wonderful that everyday feels like it's Christmas. Not really much of a Christmas song, but it certainly feels very much like a Jonas Brothers thing. And it's not like anyone is going to pay too much attention here to the lyrics. They're going to be hearing the Jonas Brothers singing and they'll be listening to them saying the word Christmas a lot and that will be enough. I will say that it does have an uplifting, happy vibe to it that makes it blend it with a lot of the other stuff here. And I do appreciate an attempt at a new Christmas song rather than doing yet another cover of one of the 10 different Christmas songs that exist in popular Christmas culture, if you know what I mean. So this is perfectly acceptable. I'm not sure if it will turn into a Christmas classic, but I'm totally fine with it being around.


New Arrivals:





11- "Blinding Lights" - The Weeknd -- I've done so many Christmas songs this week with that past section that it feels weird to cover a new song that's just a normal song. But it's an excellent week for The Weeknd as he gets a top new debut during the same week he goes No. 1. Of the two songs, this is by far the better of his two new songs and thus I would love it if the two songs could swap places. Let this song be the one goes No. 1 while the other one can hang out here at No. 11 or lower. I think the biggest reason here is that "Blinding Lights" doesn't get into the trashy realm in terms of the content. This is a clean song with a sharp groove to it that makes it feel a bit retro. I'm not exactly sure what instruments they used to create all the sounds and effects to go along with the song, but it's a good mix of instruments that creates an awesome sound. And whether or not The Weeknd is singing quality lyrics, he always has an excellent voice that's also fairly unique. In this case, his vocals match the music of the song rather well and there's no dirty content. Just solid singing with decent and clean lyrics teamed with an excellent groove. Now debuting at No. 11 is a solid arrival, but I hope this one doesn't fall by the wayside in the coming weeks.

68- "No Idea" - Don Toliver -- Nope.  

83- "Tip Toe" - Roddy Ricch featuring A Boogie wit da Hoodie -- Nope.

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