Thursday, December 26, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - December 28, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

And yes, as I've noted in previous weeks if you follow me, I'm tracking Christmas songs on the Hot 100 in their own category. This will continue for this week and, yes, next week. Because even though Christmas is this week on the calendar year, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, as well as the weekend leading up to the holiday, don't impact the charts until next week, which makes the events of this week all the more impressive.

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (=) -- I hope all of you had a merry Christmas this week! And I hope you continue to have a wonderful holiday season through the end of the month and into the new year. If you're taking time during whatever is left of your break to check out my last Billboard Analysis segment of the year, well thank you. I appreciate. We end the year with a bang as Mariah Carey takes the No. 1 spot for a second straight week, grabbing the record for the highest weekly streaming total for any holiday hit ever with 54.4 million U.S. streams, besting her peak total last year of 51.9 million U.S. streams. And again, as I mentioned in the intro in case you skipped that (it's OK, that's mostly the same each week), Christmas is not even a part of this week's tracking week. The tracking week for this week began December 13 and went through December 19. So next week will include totals for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and the weekend leading up to the those holidays. So yeah, next week is going to be huge for Christmas songs. All of this makes me wonder what's in store for the Christmas season in ensuing decades. Is 2019 the peak year for streaming Christmas music or is this only the beginning of a tradition with Mariah on top each season? And are there any other Christmas songs that can ever dethrone Mariah?

2- "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (+1) -- Mariah made history last week as she sent the first Christmas song to No. 1 on the Hot 100 since "The Chipmunk Song" in 1958-59, and only the second overall. Mariah also made history this week with the highest weekly streaming total ever for a Christmas song. This week, Mariah and Brenda team up to create another mark in history. Thanks to its streaming total of 45.3 million U.S. streams, this is the first time in the history of the Hot 100 that Christmas songs have doubled up the top two spots on the Hot 100. Last week, "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" became only the third Christmas song to even hit the top five. And it's almost certain that we get at least one more to join the club next week.

3- "Circles" - Post Malone (-1) -- I've been saying for the past couple of weeks that I don't think it's Post Malone that will return to the No. 1 spot when all the Christmas songs disappear. However, despite "Circles" not really being too strong, outside a slight 3 percent increase on radio, good enough for Post Malone's first ever No. 1 radio hit, at the moment it doesn't appear that there are many other strong contenders to sneak ahead of Post Malone. So I could be eating my words in two weeks. Or at least I hope I end up doing so considering the next two songs behind it.

4- "Roxanne" - Arizona Zervas (+2) -- If "Roxanne" ends up being the first new No. 1 hit of 2020 (Mariah Carey will, of course, be taking next week), that's going to be really depressing. Not only is that starting off the new year on the wrong foot, but that's also starting the new decade off on the wrong foot. So let's just cross our fingers that the momentum for this song at least evaporates enough for it to not go No. 1.

5- "Futsal Shuffle" - Lil Uzi Vert (new) -- What in the frack is this? Let's hope it's not the new dance craze of 2020. I can only hope it falls hard next week after its debut this week and fails to gain traction. Because no one needs any more Lil Uzi Vert in their lives. And we certainly don't need to give this thug a No. 1 hit.

6- "A Holly Jolly Christmas" - Burl Ives (+4) -- With those last three songs out of the way, and back to our Christmas spirit, this will certainly become the latest Christmas song to enter the top five. I hope this can get all the way up to No. 3. That would be a lot of fun!

7- "Memories" - Maroon 5 (=) -- A lot of movement in the top 10 this week, that is certainly going to continue into next week. But amidst it all, Maroon 5 remains steady, which is impressive. It's quite possible it takes a hit next week, and even falls out of the top 10 momentarily. But I'm convinced that the radio is going to carry this song well into January and beyond. And I'm certainly hoping that it will because I will will definitely take this over "Roxanne" or Futsal Shuffle."

8- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (-4) -- Getting bullied out of the top 10 right now is Lewis Capaldi. Even though this might be slightly premature, Lewis still had a good run and I'm glad he was able to grab No. 1. That said, with Christmas gift cards and radio year-end lists, the story might not quite be over for this song as a lot of the 2019 hits will often get a boost in the early weeks of January.

9- "Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (+6) -- The fourth Christmas song to enter the top 10 this year is the wonderfully catchy "Jingle Bell Rock." And I would love it if the momentum from Christmas can boost this right into the top five as well next week.

10- "Good as Hell" - Lizzo (-5) -- Speaking of getting prematurely bullied out of the top 10, poor Lizzo is taking a quick exit. Not helping its cause this week is that it lost its boost from the recently released music video, which combined with the other movement to nearly drop kick Lizzo right out of the top 10. Even though I would love to see this song recover, I'm not so sure it will.


Rising on the Hot 100:





14- "Ballin'" - Mustard featuring Roddy Ricch (+4) -- Make this go away.

18- "The Box" - Roddy Ricch (+29) -- More Roddy Ricch? Did he get some sort of album boost again this week? If not, that worries me. Let's not make him a thing.

24- "Adore You" - Harry Styles (+11) -- Harry Styles had a good week on the charts as releasing his new album right before Christmas was times quite well, giving him a mini album bomb week with four new songs to cover in the new arrivals, as well as a couple of his previously released singles getting an album boost. I'm not so sure this momentum is going to last, but I would really like it if Harry could gain some sort of hit from this album so that he can remain relevant moving forward.

43- "No Idea" - Don Toliver (+33) -- Make this go away.

54- "Watermelon Sugar" - Harry Styles (+38) -- More Harry Styles getting a boost. "Watermelon Sugar" is a really fun song that I'm happy to see do well this week. Again, like with "Adore You," I'm not so sure this is going to last much beyond this week, but I would be happy to be wrong.

58- "Suicidal" - YNW Melly (+16) -- Make this go away.

61- "My Oh My" - Camila Cabello featuring DaBaby (+21) -- Is Camila going to get another hit with this? I mean, I suppose I wouldn't be too upset at the idea since I do like Camila. But why does it have to be this song that is doing well? Can't she release anything else from her new album that can become a hit instead?


Christmas Songs:





1- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (=) -- It's a bit redundant bringing up some of these songs twice, but I enjoy it. Having it be Christmas heavy at the top of the charts is rather wonderful.

2- "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (+1) -- It would be fun to see Brenda hit No. 1 next week. I might actually prefer this song over Mariah's. But at the same time, letting Mariah have the glory of being the only artist to get a No. 1 hit in four different decades is a cool feat that I want to happen. Let's not make Mariah wait until next Christmas to do it.

6- "A Holly Jolly Christmas" - Burl Ives (+4) -- I hope everyone had a holly jolly Christmas this week! It's truly a wonderful time of year where we can all come together.

9- "Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (+6) -- Four Christmas classics already in the top 10 this week. And I'm glad that both of our upbeat Christmas rock songs are a part of that.

15- "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year" - Andy Williams (+5) -- This hit the top 10 last year. I would be more than shocked if it missed out next. Given that streaming for Christmas songs is going to be huge next week, that certainly seems inevitable.

17- "Last Christmas" - Wham! (+9) -- This week we have four Christmas songs in the top 10. Next week we're guaranteed to have at least five. But can we have six? The fun thing about the potential for "Last Christmas" is that it would be the song's debut in the top 10 whereas the other five all got there at some point last year.

23- "Feliz Navidad" - Jose Feliciano (+11) -- OK, it's probably asking too much for "Feliz Navidad" to also go top 10 next week, but it does have a sufficient amount of momentum at the moment. And again, streaming for Christmas songs is going to be huge next week. At the least, this is guaranteed to go top 20.

28- "Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow" - Dean Martin (-4) -- In a somewhat surprising turn of events, Dean Martin reverses course and falls down four spots. But no worries. This is set to recover next week along with everything else. But can it get enough of a boost to also hit top 20?

30- "The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You)" - Nat King Cole (+2) -- This is such a pleasant Christmas. It's good to see it hit top 30. At the same time, though, I can't get too angry that this stalled out slightly this week because this is not necessarily the one song that is at the top of every Christmas playlist. So it makes sense. I'm excited for it to get a good boost next week, though.

36- "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" - Gene Autry (+2) -- It was a busy week for Rudolph as he yet again helped Santa get all the way across the world in just one night. Perhaps a little time zone travelling magic also helps.

37- "Sleigh Ride" - The Ronettes (=) -- Another stalled out song this week as The Ronnettes stay steady, allowing Rudolph to sneak right past them. Can we get both songs to go top 30 next week?

40- "Happy Holidays / The Holiday Season" - Andy Williams (+3) -- Admittedly this is a bit of a unique Christmas song to be gaining traction. But I'd like to think that it's the power of Andy Williams and his undeniable charm and charisma with his vocals that allowed him to have two separate hit songs this year.

47- "Here Comes Santa Claus (Right Down Santa Claus Lane) - Gene Autry (re-entry) -- After taking a bit of a backtrack last week off the charts, Gene Autry is back in the top 50 with his other song. This is a reminder that old songs need to be charting within the top 50 in order to be included, in case you were wondering why this departed the charts.

50- "It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas" - Perry Como and The Fontaine Sisters with Mitchell Ayres and his Orchestra (re-entry) -- Only one new re-entry this week and it's quite the mouthful there. That's practically two full lines of text there just to list the song name and artist. Quite frankly, though, I'm a bit surprised that this isn't one of the Christmas songs that debuted a bit earlier in the month. I would say this is a much more well known and enjoyed Christmas song than at least the two songs directly ahead of it. It reminds me "Let It Snow" in that it does have a direct connection with the weather in a certain way, but there's also a bit more to it. While "Let It Snow" is mostly a winter song, "It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas" is the best of both worlds. Yes, it's the song you sing whenever it starts snowing. But it's also not just the weather pushing this song forward. There's a lot of fun holiday themes thrown in there, with great interplay between Perry Como and The Fontaine Sisters as well as some great work from the orchestra. It's one of my favorite caroling songs. Perhaps it's just not as high is because Perry Como isn't quite as popular as some of the others here? Also, when I search the title of this song on YouTube without specifying the artist, Michael Buble's version is the first to come up, followed by Bing Crosby. So having multiple artists fight for attention with one song might be the reason this isn't quite as high.  

53- "Like It's Christmas" - Jonas Brothers (+8) -- Pulling up the rear is the Jonas Brothers, hoping to crack the top 50 next week. They are, of course, exempt from the top 50 rule due to the fact that this is a new song this year, not a returning entry. And I'd be willing to bet that next week will be this song's last ever week on the Hot 100 because I highly doubt that this will become a regular Christmas classic. I wouldn't be too upset if I was proven wrong, though. This is a fine song.


New Arrivals:





5- "Futsal Shuffle" - Lil Uzi Vert -- I know it's a top five hit right now, but I really don't want to deal with Lil Uzi Vert this week. If this song is able to maintain traction, I'll talk about it later. Right now I'm just hoping it experiences a harsh, second week drop.

62- "Falling" - Harry Styles -- I plan on listening to this full album on my own before too long. I enjoyed Harry's first album and I'm intrigued by a second album, even though the individual promotional singles didn't hit quite as hard as I wanted them to. However, the thing I wasn't quite expecting was for Harry to get a mini album bomb this week with four new debuts, so I'll end up getting through a good portion of the album by simply covering the songs that debuted on the charts since he released "Lights Up" earlier this week. The top of the debuts this week is "Falling," which is an excellent start to these four new songs. This is a ballad from Harry and it's fairly simple in its structure and writing, but Harry does a great job of pulling it off with some excellent vocal work and an emotional delivery as he sings about being brokenhearted. This is nothing particularly original, but I'm a sucker for a well-executed ballad and this is a really good one. And as I think about it, it's not too often that Harry has done ballads like this. His first solo album was a 70's rock album and his One Direction stuff wasn't quite like this, so I can appreciate some versatility here.

67- "Dirty Iyanna" - YoungBoy Never Broke Again -- Why do we continue to make YoungBoy a thing?

78- "Let Me Know (I Wonder Why Freestyle)" - Juice WRLD -- Is this is song that Juice WRLD finished before he died or is this the first attempt of many to take advantage of his death for the sake of money. Record labels must love it when a popular rapper dies because it means they get to use the name to make bank, which is gross. It's the type of thing that promotes conspiracy theories in the industry. If I'm wrong and this is not the first posthumous release of a Juice WRLD, I'm sure there's many on the way.

79- "Nobody but You" - Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani -- The way Billboard had this listed was "Blake Shelton duet with Gwen Stefani." I simplified it to "Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani." However, after listening to the song on my Apple Music, I almost put it back to what it has listed on the album. "Blake Shelton featuring Gwen Stefani." The reason being is that Gwen doesn't really get a whole lot to do on this song. I'm normally not a huge fan of Blake Shelton, but when I saw a song that was labeled as a duet between him and Gwen, I was intrigued. But Gwen is instead relegated to mostly backing vocals on Blake Shelton's mostly generic love song that lacks chemistry between the two leads because there's not much passion behind the music, nor do the heavy drums and guitars fit the tone of a love song. When I see "duet," I expect both singers to get equal portion of the song and perhaps a bit of back and forth interplay. Maybe they each take turn with a verse. I don't know. Something like that. I'm not a songwriter, but I know a good love song when I see one. And this is not that. It's not a bad song by any stretch of the imagination. That's because the vocals by the two of them are decently impressive. Or at least passable. But the rest of the song is just too empty for me to care.

83- "Famous Hoes" - NLE Choppa -- Gross.

84- "Cherry" - Harry Styles -- "Watermelon Sugar" and now "Cherry"? This is a fairly fruity album here. Although for as fruity as this song is, it doesn't use the word "Cherry" in it, making me wonder why it's actually called "Cherry." This has a similar theme to "Fallen" in terms of Harry being upset at a broken relationship, but instead of it being a ballad, this feels more like a light-folky sort of song with a light guitar/banjo thing that reminded me a bit of a Simon & Garfunkle song for some reason. The song has a great flow to it and a good enough groove that is very subtle and enjoyable. I think this is a song that could really grow on me if I give it enough attention. And maybe one of these days I'll look up what Harry has to say about it, if anything, then maybe I can figure out why it's called "Cherry." Maybe the girl is named Cherry? I don't know.

86- "Golden" - Harry Styles -- I'm sensing a theme with this album. All of these songs have been about a relationship that Harry isn't quite good at. This song specifically focuses on how golden and perfect this girl is, while in contrast Harry is lacking the confidence to go for it. So yeah, it's pretty much the same thing as the previous two songs. Although in this song's defense, it is the song that opens the album, so if the whole album is pretty much Harry's story about a broken relationship, this song does a great job of setting the stage for the rest of the album. Compared to the two previous  songs, this is the more upbeat of the bunch of them. And like those two songs, the execution is well done, even though the lyrics are a bit overly-simplistic. I think the overall structure of these songs could've used a bit of work. I might've liked a bit more depth and substance. But overall, I haven't been upset at all. Three pleasant songs.

99- "She" - Harry Styles -- Considering the theme and structure of the previous three songs, I get to this one, simply titled "She," and I have a feeling that I already know what I'm going to get. However, even though this is the song with the most simple title, it's the song with the most complexity to it in terms of the lyrics. Generally speaking, it's still about a girl. But it's a very dreamy song and Harry takes his time getting through, with a lot of creative elements added to it musically. In regards to the verses, he actually goes through situations of a guy in very normal, everyday situations daydreaming of this girl. And it's all done in third person rather than Harry telling how he personally has been dreaming about this girl. And again, in regards to him taking his time, this song is six minutes long. So this is definitely not a song that is going to go mainstream, but I think it's a fun, unique song that I could see myself becoming attached to.

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