Wednesday, December 18, 2019

DrogeMiester's Billboard Analysis - December 21, 2019

The new Billboard charts have arrived and so it's time again for me to give you my thoughts! This is a weekly post where I cover three main sections of the charts: the Billboard Hot 100 top 10, the songs rising on the Hot 100, and the new arrivals. As pertaining to the rising songs, in order to be included, a song has to rise at least two spots between Nos. 11 and 20, five spots spots between Nos. 21 and 50, or 10 spots between Nos. 51 and 100. As pertaining to new arrivals, I used to dedicate myself to covering every single song that debuted, but that started to burn me out, especially with the high number of album bombs, so I've been a lot more selective recently and so far I've received no complaints. However, if I skip a song that you want to hear my thoughts on, feel free to let me know. I'll occasionally mix things up depending on the week, like throwing in a notable re-entry into the rising songs section, but generally this is what I go with. Most of the data I give you comes from Billboard.com, usually Gary Trust's weekly article. If I pull from elsewhere, I'll generally let you know. With all of that out of the way, let's dive in and see what this week has to offer!

And yes, as I've noted in previous weeks if you follow me, I'm tracking Christmas songs on the Hot 100 in their own category. This will continue at least for the next couple weeks until they all disappear. It's already been a historic Christmas season on the charts and we haven't even made it to Christmas yet, so it's been fun tracking them all on the charts and I'm excited to see how this all plays out.

Billboard Hot 100 Top 10:




1- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (+2) -- She did it! She did it! And given that this week's charts comes from last week's totals (Dec. 6 - Dec. 12), that means Mariah has two more weeks of tracking to remain in this spot, which means her strength is only going to grow, especially in two weeks from now when Christmas Eve and Christmas are a part of the tracking week. Already she is No. 1 in streaming (45.6 million U.S. streams) and sales (27,000 downloads), while gaining on radio, up 11 percent to 34.4 million in total audience. Again, those numbers are going to explode in the next two weeks, giving her a healthy lead until the song falls off after the new year. The fun thing about this No. 1 is that it's only the second holiday song to top the Hot 100, the first being "The Chipmunk Song," by The Chipmunks featuring David Seville, which ruled for four weeks in 1958-59. For Mariah, this is her 19th No. 1 and 80th week at No. 1. The Beatles hold the record for the most No. 1 hits at 20, meaning Mariah holds the record for solo acts. Mariah's 80th week extends her record there, with Rihanna beng in second place with 60 weeks. Mariah also joins an elite club of singers who have now had No. 1 hits in the 90's, 00's and 10's. Christina Aguilera, Britney Spears and Usher are the other three. And if "All I Want for Christmas is You" is still at No. 1 on the chart dated Jan. 4, which she should be given that that week includes tracking for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, Mariah will be the first artist to have a No. 1 hit in four different decades. For the song specifically, it was released back in 1994 on Mariah's Christmas album, meaning it has now completed the longest journey ever for a song to hit No. 1 following its release, that being over 25 years.

2- "Circles" - Post Malone (=) -- Following Christmas, the big question will be what song goes No. 1 after the Christmas songs disappear. "Circles" currently has the edge, as it would've returned back to No. 1 this week had it not been for Mariah Carey, but I highly doubt this will last as the highest non-Christmas song come January. It is interesting to note, though, that last week's No. 1, The Weeknd's "Heartless," plunged all the way down to No. 17 this week. That's the biggest fall from No. 1 in the history of the Hot 100.

3- "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (+5) -- More records here. "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" sets the record for the longest journey to the top five after its initial chart debut. Originally released in 1958, the song first debuted on the Hot 100 in December 1960, which was 59 years ago. That's a pretty impressive record. Is it possible that said record could be topped within the next few weeks though if Burl Ives and/or Andy Williams all hit the top five. I don't know when their respective songs first debuted on the charts. If said occurrence happens, I'll let Billboard tell me if the record is ready to be broken. And even though I'm hoping Mariah remains No. 1 throughout the season, a situation that is highly likely, so that she can be the first artist to have a No. 1 hit in four decades, wouldn't it be fun if this song went No. 1? 

4- "Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi (=) -- An impressive hold for Lewis considering the surge of Brenda Lee. I guess that's because of The Weeknd's plummet. But nevertheless, Lewis still remains ahead of his closest competitors, which speaks towards the song's staying power thanks to radio.

5- "Good as Hell" - Lizzo (+1) -- I might've expected this song to get a slightly higher boost since I believe Lizzo released a new music video for this song. But despite that, she can't quite get ahead of either "Circles" or "Someone You Loved." If her streaming numbers fall after said music video boost, does she have enough staying power through the holidays to eventually get to No. 1 come January? I'm not sure.

6- "Roxanne" - Arizona Zervas (+1) -- I'm hoping the timing of this release right before the Christmas song invasion hurts its potential in the long run. Because no one needs this Tik Tok boosted piece of trash here in the top 10.

7- "Memories" - Maroon 5 (-2) -- A tough week for Maroon 5 as they get passed by Lizzo and Arizona on the charts this week. And even though the next two weeks aren't going to be much better with all the other Christmas songs that are going to be shooting up the charts, I do believe that this song has enough radio traction to survive the season and be in good position come January.

8- "Lucid Dreams" - Juice WRLD (re-entry) -- The death of a human being is always a sad one to me, regardless of who that person is or what they did. And, yes, even when it's the death of a horrible human being, that is also still sad because it's a life wasted. Although by all accounts I hear, Jarad Higgins, who calls himself Juice WRLD, was a nice human being who was liked by many. And in terms of his music, out of all the thug rappers out there, Juice WRLD's music was mostly tolerable. I actually like this song here. Although, admittedly, the more Juice WRLD released music, the more I realized that "Lucid Dreams" was more of a one-hit wonder in terms of quality. So while I mourn his loss, and was rather shocked at the news, I can't call myself a fan of his music overall. Like with XXXTENTACION, his death is not going to change. I'm not going to suddenly call him a musical genius just because he died. While the official cause of his death is unconfirmed, TMZ's report on it states that there were 70 pounds of marijuana found on his private jet with a lot of other drugs as well. People on his flight witnessed him popping various unknown pills and it was also reported that he took Percocet to hide it from police, who were waiting for the flight to land, in which two people were arrested for gun charges. So while I'll wait for the official results to come out on the mode of death, it wouldn't be too crazy to think that it was a drug overdose that led to him convulsing in seizures, especially since it was also reported that he was administered two doses of Narcan, an emergency treatment when opioid overdose is suspected. And this is why I have a problem with this industry. While drugs have been long attached to famous musicians in various genres of  music, the current rap industry spends a huge percentage of its time glorifying drug use. So while the younger generation is mourning the death of their idol, my hope is that we can somehow learn from this and teach our kids that drugs are BAD. I hope that we could one day reject trashy music that glorifies drugs, violence, and murder. But that's probably wishful thinking. I do think this is all a bad influence on kids, which is why I'm worried.

9- "Dance Monkey" - Tones and I (+4) -- With that out of the way, it's time to move onto more happy news. I've been waiting for "Dance Monkey" to enter the top 10, but the last few weeks seemingly were too busy with all the holiday stuff that I was hoping it wasn't bad timing here. But with this song finally breaking in, while a lot of the other songs in this top 10 are fading, I think "Dance Monkey" is in great position to become a major hit in 2020 and that makes me happy.

10- "A Holly Jolly Christmas" - Burl Ives (+8) -- The final entry into the top 10 is another piece of wonderful news as "A Holly Jolly Christmas" enters into the top 10 again. Last year it entered, but quickly got replaced by other holiday music. This year I hope that it shoots up to the top five because it would be wonderful to have an all holiday top five.


Rising on the Hot 100:





12- "Bandit" - Juice WRLD & YoungBoy Never Broke Again (+28) -- See my previous note on Juice WRLD that I wrote in the top 10 with "Lucid Dreams."

36- "Falling" - Trevor Daniel (+5) -- Please, no.

60- "Hate Me" - Ellie Goulding & Juice WRLD (+29) -- See my previous note on Juice WRLD that I wrote in the top 10 with "Lucid Dreams."

73- "Tip Toe" - Roddy Ricch featuring A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+10) -- Stop it.

74- "Suicidal" - YNW Melly (+12) -- Excuse me while I throw up.


Christmas Songs:





1- "All I Want for Christmas is You" - Mariah Carey (+2) -- Well, after 25 years, Mariah has finally gone No. 1 with "All I Want for Christmas is You." If you for some reasons skipped the top 10 in order to go straight to the Christmas music section, you might want to go back up to read my many comments on this song. Mariah is definitely the queen of Christmas with this modern classic.

3- "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (+5) -- Having two Christmas songs in the top five is quite wonderful. Let's keep it going and have more Christmas songs in the top five. Or at least more in the top 10. Last year there was a total of five songs that made it. We have three so far this year.

10- "A Holly Jolly Christmas" - Burl Ives (+8) -- It's great seeing this song back in the top 10. As I explained above, last year it hit the top 10, then reversed course and got replaced by the others. Let's send this up to the top five in the next two weeks with Mariah and Brenda.

15- "Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (+8) -- This is going top 10 next, right? If "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" is in the top five, then its companion piece, "Jingle Bell Rock" deserves to join it.

20- "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year" - Andy Williams (+4) -- Here's the final song from last Christmas to enter the top 10. Now can you imagine it if all five of these songs comprised our top five in two weeks? That would make for the most wonderful Christmas on the charts yet!

24- "Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow" - Dean Martin (+4) -- Sneaking past "Last Christmas" this week is Mr. Dean Martin with "Let It Snow." And I'm fine with that. I'm fine with whatever, really. I just want Christmas songs to rise. Even though this song is more of a winter song than a Christmas song, it still counts.

26- "Last Christmas" - Wham! (+1) -- I'm a bit surprised to see "Last Christmas" only rise one spot this week. I'm wondering if this song has a ceiling to it. But the story is far from over as the next two weeks should see all of these songs continue to get boosted up, so "Last Christmas" is still in good position.

32- "The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You)" - Nat King Cole (+1) -- Also surprised that Nat King Cole got somewhat stuck. Given that it's only at No. 32 this week, I'm not quite sure what this song's potential is, but it should still be able to get top 20, I think.

34- "Feliz Navidad" - Jose Feliciano (+5) -- Last week I said that I can put "Feliz Navidad" on repeat and listen to it for hours as background noise. After saying that, I put the song on repeat while typing up a few different posts. And it didn't get old. In regards to its chart position, a five spot jump is an improvement on the four Christmas songs just ahead of it, but maybe that's just because it's easier to rise while in the 30's.

37- "Sleigh Ride" - The Ronnettes (+6) -- "Sleigh Ride" now breaks into the top 40 this week. Navigating the path because a bit tricky, but I believe it has a head start based on where it was last year at this point.

38- "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" - Gene Autry (+6) -- Gene lost his other song from the Hot 100 this week as a slew of Juice WRLD returns put a pause on the progress of some of the lower Christmas songs this week (an older song has to be in the top 50 and gaining in multiple metrics in order to qualify for a spot in the Hot 100), but it's good to see Rudolph cruising through the Hot 100.

43- "Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season" - Andy Williams (+4) -- Admittedly a bit of a unique choice when it comes to holiday hits. There's probably a lot that I would've selected ahead of this, but I think the broadly appealing "Happy Holiday" angle of this song helps. And anything Andy Williams sings is certainly enjoyable.

59- "Christmas Tree Farm" - Taylor Swift (new) -- It totally makes sense for Taylor Swift to write a Christmas song. It fits her style quite well. In fact, she could do a whole Christmas album if she wanted and I think that would be quite wonderful. However, I do think this is a strange title for a Christmas song. I suppose it makes it unique enough, but "Christmas Tree Farm"? Did Taylor Swift grow up on a farm where they grew Christmas trees? If not, I'm not sure why she would be reminiscing on being back at the Christmas tree farm. That aside, though, this song is nice enough. As you can tell, I'm rather forgiving when it comes to Christmas music. If it's happy and heartwarming, chances are that I'll be fine with it. And if this comes up on a Christmas music playlist when I'm with family or friends, I'll be perfectly happy as Taylor does a good job of bringing the Christmas spirit as she compares what life is like right now at times to what they were back in the day. The music video is quite enjoyable as she puts together a bunch of videos from her childhood as little toddler Taylor is enjoying Christmas with her family. It fits well into the lyrics of the song to provide a nice Christmas atmosphere.

61- "Like It's Christmas" - Jonas Brothers (+11) -- I don't know if this is ever going to stand the test of time and become a Christmas classic that re-enters this year, but this is a perfectly enjoyable Christmas song from the Jonas Brothers, even though they probably could've made it a little more Christmasy instead of just using Christmas as a backdrop for their love song.


New Arrivals:





35- "Adore You" - Harry Styles -- Harry's album came out this past Friday and I'm not sure if it's really set to make much of an impact. And part of that is a shame because I think Harry deserves to see more success with his solo career. At the same time, though, while his two promotional singles for his album were good enough, they weren't necessarily super memorable, which I why I don't think they have caught on with the general public. And if they didn't do a good job of catching on, I'm not so sure this is going to be the song to change his luck around. Although with the album set to impact the charts next week, I could see it getting a boost next week, but I'm not sure what the song's long-term potential goes. Chart success aside, this song does well enough at being smooth, relaxing and enjoyable. It's not flashy at all. It's not going to make you get up and dance. But it has a mellow, charming flow to it. And Harry brings enough passion to it to make it feel genuine. Even though it's a bit generic lyrically, it still feels significantly different than his days with One Direction when they would write songs specifically pandering to a teenage girl audience. But if I'm going to show people what Harry has done following 1D, I'm still going to show them his first album instead of any songs from this second album. I do plan on listening to the album, though.

47- "The Box" - Roddy Ricch -- Nope.

72- "Peta" - Roddy Ricch featuring Meek Mill -- Nope.

82- "My Oh My" - Camila Cabello featuring DaBaby -- My thoughts exactly when I saw DaBaby was featured on Camila's new song. My oh my. What the frack is she doing? Speaking of new albums, Camila's sophomore album is also out and I need to go listen to it because there was a lot to like about her first album, even though Camila has never been good at picking the right singles and marketing them well. I'm willing to bet that there are songs from her album that are good, but yeah this is not one of them. Camila's part is kinda dreary and uninteresting as she rides the line of being a good girl and a bad girl with her sketchy new boyfriend in this song. DaBaby comes in and has solid flow, but has nothing interesting to add, nor does his verse have much of anything to do with the song, which is admittedly not thought out too well. This feels like Camila desperately pandering to a certain audience, but I don't think it's going to work well.

85- "Bad Vibes Forever" - XXXTENTACION featuring PnB Rock & Trippie Redd -- We're still taking advantage of the death of XXXTENTACION to make money? Gross.

97- "Lord Above" - Fat Joe & Dre featuring Eminem & Mary J. Blige -- Dr. Dre and Eminem on the same song? What year is it? Oh, 2019. Because it's not Dr. Dre. Just Dre. As in Cool and Dre. I don't know much about that duo, nor Fat Joe, but I don't like either. They try to do the old school rap, but it's like they're walking in molasses. It's just so slow with no good flow to it while trying to sound all cool hip, yet having nothing interesting to say to go along with their non-existent flow. I do know Eminem, but he comes on and is nothing but foul and gross. Eminem does that every once in a while and I'm not the type to just forgive him for everything he does, especially since he's not really been on his game as of late. And I have no idea why they brought Mary J. Blige on board only to use her as for backing vocals. So yeah, I listened to this because maybe I thought this would be different, but no. This is just as trashy and awful as most rap.

98- "Big Stepper" - Roddy Ricch -- Nope.

100- "BEST ON EARTH" - Russ & BIA -- I had no idea who these two were, so I pressed play. I got 10 seconds and and quit. This is a nope and I'm going to waste no more time.

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